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Understanding Probability and Ethics in Psychology: Insights from Week #10 Agenda

This week's agenda focuses on key concepts in psychology including intuition, probability, and ethics. We explore intuition tests and how randomness influences psychological research and practice. Delving into the role of probabilistic reasoning, we discuss how psychologists must navigate the uncertainty inherent in human behavior. We also examine common misconceptions in the field of psychology, critiquing its portrayal in popular media. Finally, we address the importance of scientific rigor and empirical evaluation in formulating valid psychological theories.

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Understanding Probability and Ethics in Psychology: Insights from Week #10 Agenda

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Thinking Like a Psychologist… and Ethics PSYC 200Week #10

  2. Agenda • Roll call • Essay #2 (missing several) • Intuitions Test • Probability, Chance, and the Popular Image of Psychology • Ethics

  3. Intuitions Test

  4. Probability and Chance

  5. What is randomness / chance? • When events occur or change as a result of unpredictable forces or events. • Randomness plays a part in almost every single activity you do. • In psychological research and practice, there are always random factors at work • Psychological tests and measurements • Treatments / therapies • Therefore, psychologists make probabilistic statements…

  6. The role of probability in psychology • Statements of reality are probabilistic… • They are true most of the time • Men tend to be taller than women • Students who do better on the SATs tend to do better in college • They DO NOT have to be true all of the time • What works for most people most of the time. • When we observe something, we have to determine the probability that the observation was chance

  7. I know a person who… • A single (or even multiple) cases of individuals that seem to go against a known theory does not invalidate the theory. Theories are probabilistic. • Smoking and lung cancer • Cholesterol and heart attacks • Abuse and depression • Others?

  8. Probabilistic Reasoning • Base-rate information • Sample size • Gambler’s fallacy

  9. Chance and Psychology • Humans tend to explain chance events • Illusory Correlation: believing that a relationship exists between 2 variables that co-occur, but a relationship does not exist • Looking for signs… • Chance events and oddmatches • 5 coins all heads = .03 • 5 coins, 10o flips, all heads = .96

  10. Why psychology is the strong, silent kid who gets beat up all the time. The Challenged Science

  11. Psychology’s misrepresentation • Dr. Phil • Oprah • [Insert Talk Show Host here] • Second-class literature

  12. Psychological “literature” • Self-help • Free your mind • Eat fruits and vegetables • You are your own best friend • How to meet new people and impress them and make them love you and pay you $$ with psychological techniques • The REAL psychological literature is usually in the science section

  13. The Paranormal • ESP • Not a fruitful area of research • Studied for a long time (since start of psychology) • 90 years of controlled studies • Zero (0) have provided replicable evidence of ESP under controlled conditions.

  14. The Basics • Psychology focuses on the reasons for X and Y to happen together (i.e., the causes) – i.e., Basic Research • Why you forget where you put your keys • Why friendly people are more successful • Why watching sexy TV causes teenage pregnancy (j/k) • This investigatory process is far less sexy than: • Win friends and become a CEO

  15. NO-bel • There is no Nobel Prize in psychology • Resistance to scientific psychology • Anything goes? • Not in psychology • Your beliefs about human behavior are testable and falsifiable by empirical means!! • Psychology is seen as so pervasive, it’s nowhere. • What is a psychologist? • Every person? • Or something more?

  16. Judging PsuedoScience • “A tendency to invoke ad hoc hypotheses as a means of immunizing claims from falsification. • An emphasis on confirmation rather than refutation. • A tendency to place the burden of proof on skeptics, not proponents, of claims. • Excessive reliance on anecdotal and testimonial evidence… • Evasion of peer review… • Failure to build on existing scientific knowledge.” (p. 200/203)

  17. Summary Exercise • Empirical problems, many areas • Falsifiable theories • Definitions are operational • Systematic and public empiricism • Peer review • Control and manipulation • Multiple methods, multiple strengths, multiple weaknesses • Aggregation of data / observations  conclusions • Probabilistic statements about reality

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