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Double cab ute nation

Double cab ute nation. How the economy is travelling Why we have 4.5% GDP growth with 0.2% inflation What might change that The amazing migration story An awfully amazing housing story A stonkingly strong tourism story A surprisingly weak trade story Why Donald Trump is revolting.

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Double cab ute nation

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  1. Double cab ute nation Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  2. How the economy is travelling • Why we have 4.5% GDP growth with 0.2% inflation • What might change that • The amazing migration story • An awfully amazing housing story • A stonkingly strong tourism story • A surprisingly weak trade story • Why Donald Trump is revolting Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  3. Headed for 4.5% GDP growth? Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  4. Solid heavy traffic growth Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  5. Heavy traffic rising slower than GDP Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  6. Light traffic really taking off Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  7. Yet 4% of firms cutting prices Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  8. So the OCR is falling Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  9. Population up 2.1% in a year Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  10. Migration at a 100-year high Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  11. Don’t assume a ‘natural’ drop • Structural change in migration • 650 mln joining middle classes in India and China • Shift up for tourism, education • Migrant-averse UK & Australia • NZ citizen net migration shift • 30k per year, not 18 k per year Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  12. Tourism at new record highs Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  13. Woo hoo! Or uh oh? Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  14. So, so rich. Now NZ$1 trln Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  15. The rich are spending Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  16. For tradies with too much money Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  17. Still not building enough Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  18. And way less than the 1970s Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  19. Housing shortage now 40k ++ • Auckland now building 10k/yr • Need at least 15k/yr for a decade • 400k over next three decades • What needs to happen? • Massive infrastructure building • Roads, pipes, buses, schools • So much concrete and steel • So many double cab utes Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  20. Auckland’s building boom Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  21. A residential boom Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  22. So what might spoil the party? • Higher inflation/interest rates? • A bank-driven lending slowdown? • A new Global Financial Crisis? • Global or local political turmoil? • Anti-globalisation hit to trade? • A migration collapse? • A housing market slump? Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  23. NZ is so special. Even more than Australia. This time it’s different… Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  24. So, so exceptional Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  25. DTIs could be coming Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  26. Banks not passing on all OCR Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  27. A very, very long view Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  28. In the short term • Watch the inflation figures • Watch the Reserve Bank • On OCR and DTIs • Watch the migration figures • Watch Winston Peters • In the longer term • Watch global growth • How Auckland grows Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  29. Globalisation fatigue Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  30. Why the middle is revolting Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  31. Trade growth plateauing Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  32. China making its own bits • No need to import/re-export • Slow public/private investment • Hardware turning into software • A few signs of protectionism • No outright move to stop trade • Yet (trade barriers rose in ‘30s) • A reaction against globalisation • TPP, TTiP, CETA, RCEP Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  33. Thank you • Questions • Challenges Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

  34. Bernard Hickey • bernard@hivenews.co.nz • 027 866 0011 • www.twitter.com/bernardchickey Road Transport Forum, Tauranga, Oct 27

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