Regulatory Issues and China’s Auto Market 政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响 Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.D

1. Regulatory Issues and China’s Auto Market 政策法规对中国汽车产业的影响 Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.D China Business Update China Automotive Review 中国汽车要闻 邢文军 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

2. The Auto Market Today 中国的汽车市场 Future Trend & Drivers 未来市场的走向和影响因素 Recent Policies & Regulations 近期的相关政策和法规 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

3. The Auto Market Today 中国的汽车市场 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

4. The Rise of Per-Capita GDP 人均GDP Large Metropolis and Coastal Areas $3,000-$4,000 直辖市及沿海地区 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

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6. Growth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005 汽车及轿车产量增幅 (in million units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73 % change 22.1 4.3 7.3 1.38 7.37 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3 Cars* 0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93 % change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8 24.2 * Includes sub-category cars and MPVs www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

7. Adding One Million Units A Year • 年增百万辆 • First Million: 1953-1992 -- 40 year • Second Million: 1993-2000 -- 8 years • Third Million: 2001-2002-- 2 years • Fourth Million: 2003 -- 1 year • Fifth Million: 2004 – 1 years • Sixth Million: 2005 – over 1 year • Seventh Million: 2006 – 1 year www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

8. GDP and Output Growth Rates GDP和汽车产量增幅 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

9. China’s auto market:myth and reality 中国的汽车市场的真实性 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

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13. Intensifying Competition • 竞争激烈 • 6＋3 • 3＋? www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

14. Chang’an-Ford Chang’an-Ford Brilliance-Jinbei FAW-VW BJ-Hyundai FAW Car Tianjin-FAW-Xiali Tianjin- FAW- Toyota NJ-Fiat DF-Yueda-Kia SGM SVW Chang’an-Suzuki GEELY Chery Dongfeng-Peugeot-Citroën Guangzhou-Honda D-Nissan 6+3 3+? Hafei Auto Great Wall Jianghuai D-Nissan Sichuan-Toyota Changhe-Suzuki Southeast S-GM-Wuling Guizhou-Skylark Guangzhou-Toyota Hainan-Mazda www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com Guangzhou-Hyundai

15. 6＋3 Multinationals are all in 跨国公司全部进入 • Volkswagen: 大众SAIC and FAW • GM: 通用SAIC-GM, Wuling, Dongyue, Jinbei • Ford: 福特Chang’an, Nanjing, Jiangling • DaimlerChrysler: 戴克BAIC, Southeast • Toyota: 丰田FAW, GAIC • Honda: 本田GAIC, Dongfeng • Renault/Nissan: 雷诺-日产Dongfeng • BMW: 宝马Brilliance Jinbei • PSA: 标致雪铁龙Dongfeng ; Fiat: 菲亚特Nanjing • Hyundai-Kia: 现代-起亚BAIC, Dongfeng, GAIC • Suzuki: 铃木 Chang’an, Changhe; Mitsubishi: 三菱SoutheastIsuzu: 五十铃Qingling; www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

16. 3＋？: FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC “三大＋？” • BAIC: 北汽DaimlerChrysler, Hyundai, Mitsubishi • GAIC: 广汽Honda, Toyota, Dongfeng-Nissan Passenger • Chang’an Group: 长安Ford, Suzuki • Hafei/Changhe: 哈飞/昌河Aviation Industry Group • Jianghuai Auto Group 江淮 • Nanjing: 南汽Fiat, MG Rover • Southeast (Fujian)：东南 Mitsubishi, China Motors • Brilliance: 华晨BMW • Qingling Motor Group：庆铃Isuzu www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

17. 3＋？Domestic Investment国内投资 • Chery: 奇瑞R&D Center, Engine Plant, Export/JV • Geely: 吉利R&D Center, Engine plant, Export/JV • BYD (Qinchuan): 比亚迪HK$254 million/74% shares • Great Wall:长城 100,000 units car assembly plant • Jianghuai: 江淮light commercial, MPV, car • Lifan: 力帆1.6L car • Zhongxing: 中兴SUVs and pickups • Gonow Auto: 吉奥SUVs and pickups • Loncin: 隆鑫¥300 million, bus/suv www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

18. Reality and Definition 如何定义 • Sedan 轿车 • Automobile 汽车 • Motor vehicle 机动车 • Consumers 消费者 • Family car 家庭轿车 • Price: 价格¥100,000, ¥80,000, ¥40,000, ¥30,000 Sedan vs hatchback 三箱, 两箱 (Citroën ZX, Xiali) www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

19. Summary 结论: • Eexisting and potential large market现实和潜在大市场 • Institutional and commercial 公、商务车市场 • Consumer market: 消费者市场：摩托车、农用车、微车 • Motorcycles, farm vehicles, mini-vehicles (not 100%) • Sedans 轿车 • Transition from a centralized to a market system • 计划经济向市场经济过渡 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

20. Future Trend and Drivers 未来市场的走向和影响因素 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

21. Interaction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈 • Government, World Market, Domestic Market • 政府、国际和国内市场 • Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精简政府机构 • Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制 • WTO Impact 世贸组织 • The Rise of a Consumer Market 消费者市场的兴起 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

22. Declining Administrative Control • 行政干预逐渐弱化 • × Ministry of Machinery Industry 机械部 • × State Administration of Machinery Industry 机械局 • × China National Automotive Industry Corp. 中汽总 • × State Economic and Trade Commission经贸委 • Federation of Machinery Industry 机械工业联合会 • CAAM/SAE中国汽车工业协会/中国汽车工程学会 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

23. Emphasis on the Rule of Law 法制增强 • Type/Product Approval 认证 • Safety: compulsory tests, frontal collision安全碰撞法规 • Emission Control: Euro III & II 排放 • Consumption Tax消费税 • Consumer Protection: Recall消费者保护 • Fuel consumption level:然油消耗限制 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

24. Administrative Control 行政干预依然存在 • Auto Industry Development Policy 产业政策（2004） • Market entry 市场准入 • 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 股比限制 • Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

25. Different departmental priorities (部门交叉管理） • SDRC:发改委 Circular (investment threshold) • State Assets Commission国资委 Large State-owned companies • MOFCOM:商务部 Investment, Sales, Export • Quality Inspection，Supervision & Quarantine: 质监局 • Administration of Taxation: 税务局 Taxation • Industry and Commerce: 工商局 Business License • Public Security: 公安局 Vehicle License & Registration • Communications: 交通部 Maintenance & Repair • Ministry of Science &Technology: 科技部 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

26. Market vs. Central Planning 市场和计划经济 • State Council DRC 国务院发展研究中心 • Government Should Not Interfere 政府不宜干预 • Equal Access and Fair Competition 公平竞争 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

27. Driven by Market Forces 市场的作用越来越大 • Automobile: means of production vs consumer good • 汽车：生产资料还是消费品 • Public/Institutional to Private Ownership • 公有到私有 • Economic Growth & Rising Living Standards • 经济发展和生活水平 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

28. OverallEconomic Growth经济持续增长 • Average GDP growth 7-8% GDP增幅 • Active fiscal policy 积极的财政 • Average annual growth in output10-15%汽车年产量均增 15％ 左右 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

29. International Players跨国公司 • Multinational Presence 跨国主机厂和供应商 • Government Relations and Lobbying 政府公关 • Vehicles for Government Consumption 政府采购 • Emissions, Safety, Technology 安全、排放、技术 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

30. WTO Accession 世贸组织 • Tariff down to 25%/10% in 2006 关税减削减 • Quota eliminated 配额许可证取消 • Localization requirement 取消国产化率 • Global sourcing 全球采购 • Equity investment limit 放宽投资额度限制 • Consumer expectations: Price reduction 降价 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

31. Domestic Market Forces 国内市场变化 • Local Investment 地方政府投资 • Private Investment 民营投资 • Chery, Geely, Brilliance, BYD, Lifan, GW • Market Entry Open, with restrictions 准入并未封闭 • Merger & Acquisitions 兼并重组，借壳生产 • Buying into the Big Three? 民营参股三大? www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

32. Corporate Decision Making 企业面临新决策 • Protective vs. Competitive Advantage 保护还是竞争优势 • Advanced Management vs. Efficiency 先进管理和效率 State-ownership & Labor Cost Advantage 国有和劳动力成本 Low-Cost Management 低成本管理 Product Development: Institutional/Consumer 新产品开发对象 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

33. Market Share of Carmakers, 2004-2006 (%)市场份额 Make/Model 2001 2004 2005 Jan-Mar. ‘06 Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8 Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.9 10.4 9.3 FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8 Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0 Chery Automobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9 Geely 2.9 4.5 5.2 6.1 Tianjin-FAW-Toyota N/A 3.4 4.7 6.0 Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8 Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7 Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6 Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.0 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

34. The Road of Electronic Appliances and Motorcycles 家电和摩托车 • Motorcycle Market shares: 1997 2005 • 摩托车市场份额 • SOEs + JVs （国有和合资企业）: 90% 40% www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

35. Recent Policies & Regulations 近期的相关政策和法规 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

36. Auto Industry Development Policy（2004） • 产业政策 • 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 整车股比限制 • Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 项目限制 • JV initiated M&As 合资企业兼并重组国企 • Separation of production & Sales: Mazda 3 • 生产和销售分离 • Entrance barrier 准入 • Support of “large auto groups” 支持“大集团” www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

37. Import Tariff 进口关税 • Quota and license eliminated 许可和配额取消 • Whole vehicles: 25% July 1, 2006 整车25％ • Parts & components: 10% July 1, 2006 零部件10％ • Impact: high-end, luxury cars as imports豪华车 • Targeting the newly rich 新富 • Local production unlikely 不会地产 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

38. CBU Characteristics 整车特征 (April 1, 2005) • Import Administration of Automotive Parts and Components • Having Characteristics of CBUs • 60% or higher in value: 25％ tariff, July 1, 2006 • 超过整车价值60％，按整车征税 • EU, US, Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico: • “Violation of WTO rules on localization”违背WTO地产规则 • China：”Counter import tariff evasion” “打击逃避关税” • Likely solution 解决办法 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

39. Exterior ID Marks 汽车外部标识 • Administrative Methods on Exterior ID Marks of Automobile Products, February 2006 今年二月实施 • Government: Made in China 政府规范市场 • Corporate: Sales 企业销售 • Consumer: Foreign vs. local brands 消费者心理 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

40. Consumption Tax, April 1, 2006 消费税 (%) • Sedan/MPV SUV • Engine New Old Change Engine New Old Change • <1.0L 3 3 0 <=1.0L 3 3 0 • >1.0L-=1.5L 3 5 -2 >1.0L-=1.5L 3 3 0 • >1.5L-=2.0L 5 5 0 >1.5L-=2.0L 5 3 2 • >2.0L-=2.2L 9 5 4>2.0L-=2.2L 9 3 6 • >2.2L-=2.5L 9 8 1 >2.2L-=2.5L 9 3 6 • >2.5L-=3.0L 12 8 4 >2.5L-=3.0L 12 5 7 • >3.0L-=4.0L 15 8 7 >3.0L-=4.0L 15 5 10 • >4.0L 20 8 12 >4.0L 20 5 15 Impact:影响 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

41. Farm vehicles part of automobiles • 农用车变为汽车的一部分 • The Notice on Standardizing the Administration of Three-Wheel Automobiles and Low-Speed Trucks, June 1, 2006 三轮汽车、低速卡车 • VIN：January 1, 2007 汽车识别代号 • WMI: 世界制造识别 • a) minimum output 3,000/500 最低年产量 • b) certification 生产许可 • Application deadline: December 31, 2006 申请截至 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

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43. Independent Innovation and Brands • 自主创新和自主品牌 • National strategy 国家战略决策 • From low-cost to technology advantage • 低成本优势到技术创新优势 • Ministry of Science & Technology 科技部主导 • Comments from top leaders 领导人关注 • Fair competition and support local brands • 为自主品牌创造公平竞争环境 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

44. Emissions and Safety安全与排放 • Euro III: Beijing, January 1, 2006 欧III • Euro IV planned for July 1, 2007 欧IV • Frontal and side-collision 正侧面碰撞法规 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

45. Other policies and regulations 其他政策法规 • 1. 11th Five-Year Plan 十一五规划 • 2. Catalogue of Guidance on Industrial Structure Adjustment 工业结构调整指导目录 • 3. Catalogue of Guidance on Encouraging Foreign Investment 外商投资指导目录 • 4. Compulsory scrap standards 强制报废标准 • 5. Used vehicle sales 二手车流通 • 6. Maintenance & repair 维修与检测 • 7. Compulsory liability insurance 强制责任险 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

46. Future policies, laws and regulations • 政策法规走向 • 50:50 equity share control 股比控制 • Fuel Tax 然油税 • Independent vehicle brands for new JVs 自主品牌 • Fair competition: Enterprise income tax: 11% vs 23% 税收并轨 • Reduced administrative control进一步减少行政控制 • Anti-Monopoly Law 反垄断法 www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com

47. Thank You www.cbuauto.com www.chinaautoreview.com