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Introduction to the climate change session

Introduction to the climate change session. Johann Bell. Vulnerability assessment. Supported by. Why are we so concerned?. El Nino. 1972. 1983. 1998. Peruvian anchovy. Anchoveta catch (million t). La Nina. El Nino. Skipjack tuna. How could climate change derail our plans?.

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Introduction to the climate change session

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  1. Introductionto the climate change session Johann Bell

  2. Vulnerability assessment Supported by

  3. Why are we so concerned? El Nino 1972 1983 1998 • Peruvian anchovy Anchoveta catch (million t) La Nina El Nino • Skipjack tuna

  4. How could climate change derail our plans? Optimise contributions of tuna to economic development Provide sufficient fish for food security Maximise sustainable livelihoods from fisheries resources

  5. Our approach Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations needed to maintain productivity - management and policies

  6. Complex task • Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Germany • Australian Institute of Marine Science • CSIRO • CLS, Satellite Oceanography Division, France • C20 Consulting, Australia • Danish Meteorological Institute • Forum Fisheries Agency • Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority • IFREMER • Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement • James Cook University • LSCE, IPSL, Paris, France • National Centerfor Atmospheric Research (US) • NOAA • Network of Aquaculture Centres for Asia -Pacific • Papua New Guinea National Fisheries Authority • Secretariat of the Pacific Community • Service de la Peche French Polynesia • Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation • Solomon Islands Ministry of Fisheries • SPREP • The WorldFish Center • University of Hawaii • University of Auckland • University of New South Wales • University of Queensland • University of Singapore • University of Tasmania • Vanuatu Fisheries Department • Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA • Western Australia Department of Fisheries *Members of Technical Working Group

  7. Main products • 1. Book • ‘Vulnerability of Fisheries and Aquaculture in the Tropical Pacific to Climate Change’ • 2. Summary for Policy Makers • Products available October 2011 – to be launched at SPC Conference in Marshall Islands • Followed by a regional workshop in 2012 to translate main findings into priority adaptations

  8. Today’s programme Projected changes to atmospheric and oceanic conditions • x Ecosystems supporting fish Fish stocks Implications for economic development, food security and livelihoods Adaptations

  9. Today’s programme Presentations before lunch (meet the experts!)

  10. Today’s programme Presentations after lunch

  11. Today’s programme Today’s programme Discussion groups

  12. Your session! • Programme includes plenty of time for questions

  13. Climate change scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007 2 scenarios and 2 timeframes Global

  14. Climate change scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007 Global Global emissions are tracking A2 A2 (High) B1 (Low)

  15. Climate change scenarios Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 2007

  16. Climate change scenarios • Projections for surface climate, tropical Pacific Ocean and fish stocks • Projected effects on plans for economic development, food security and livelihoods

  17. Vulnerability framework For assessing effects of projected changes on fish stocks

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