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Energy Challenge Overview: Strategies and Technology Issues for National Space Grant Directors

This overview discusses the critical energy challenges faced by the U.S., particularly regarding rising oil and natural gas prices, their economic impacts, and future energy policies. With insights from Dr. Sam V. Shelton, it draws on historical context, including the influence of the 1960s U.S. Space Initiative. Key issues include the U.S.’s reliance on foreign oil, the long-term implications of energy technology advancements such as nuclear and renewable sources, and the urgent need for energy policy reform to ensure national security and economic stability.

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Energy Challenge Overview: Strategies and Technology Issues for National Space Grant Directors

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  1. Energy Challenge:Overview & Technology Issues National Space Grant Directors Meeting 27 October 2008 Sam V. Shelton, Ph.D. Strategic Energy Institute Georgia Institute of Technology

  2. 1960’s U.S. Space Initiative • Created Generation of Engineers & Scientiest • I am a Product of Sputnik: • Graduate School on National Defense Education Act • First Career Position • Jet Propulsion Laboratory: Research Engineer

  3. Energy & The Economy

  4. Oil Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 22 Percent per Year Average

  5. Coal Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 20 Percent per Year Average

  6. Natural Gas Price Increase • 01 Jan 2002 to 27 Oct 2008 • 15 Percent per Year Average

  7. Energy Burden on Economy • US Energy Expenditures as % of GDP • 2004: 3% • 2008: 7% • Energy Costs Created Current Economic Crisis? • “The Oil Factor”, 2004, Stephen Leeb

  8. Energy Challenge

  9. Energy Drivers Working Together • Economics • Environment • Fossil Fuel Production Limitations • National Security

  10. Environment and Energy

  11. U.S. Natural Energy Resources Use

  12. U.S. Oil Demand & Production

  13. Imports Production US Oil Production & UtilizationEIA Annual Energy Report (1949-2006) Consumption Production

  14. Actual Projected U.S. Oil Production with ANWR

  15. World Oil Production

  16. World Oil Production PeakingPredicted: 2006 - 2015

  17. World Oil Peaking is Driving Oil Prices UP 2006 Predictions: $100 per Barrel Oil Predicted by end of 2010

  18. U.S. Dependence on Foreign OilNational Security& Economic Issues

  19. Supplier of Last Resort

  20. Saudi Arabia 20% Canada 14% Iran 10% Iraq 9% Kuwait 8% UAE 7% Venezuela 6% Russia 5% Libya 3% Nigeria 3% Kazakhstan 2% U.S. 2% U.S. 25% China 8% Japan 7% Germany 3% Russia 3% India 3% Canada 3% South Korea 3% Brazil 3% France 2% Mexico 2% Italy 2% Have Oil Use Oil EIA 2007 CIA Factbook 2007 The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highest consuming nations combined.

  21. Foreign Energy Tax • National Balance of Payments • $1 Billion per DAY Going Out of US for Oil • U.S. Energy Policy Could be Stated As: “Leave No Saudi Prince or Iranian Mula Behind.”

  22. Oil DemandPrimarily Transportation

  23. Transportation is the Oil Issue • Very Large Transportation Fleet • Huge Investment in Fleet • Evolves Very Slowly • 17 Years to Replace 50% of Vehicles

  24. Vehicle Efficiency Improvements • Change Vehicle Culture • Smaller Cars • Hybrid Vehicles • Turbo Diesels Engines • Plug In Hybrids • All Electric Cars • ALL HAVE IMPACT IN ~2025 • IF WE START SELLING THEM NOW

  25. Is Aviation Fuel Inefficient?

  26. Rutan Long EZ

  27. Space Ship I

  28. Space Ship I Landing

  29. Natural Gas Supplies N. American Gas Demand Exceeding N. American Gas Production

  30. U.S. Natural Gas Production

  31. Importing Natural Gas • LNG Imports • Liquified • -260F • Same as Oil Imports • Paid with Foreign Held Debt • National Security • Costly to Transport

  32. Electric Power Plants

  33. Electricity Uses Very Little Oil Fuel Type Use for Electric Power

  34. Oil & Electric Power • New Nuclear/Wind/Solar Electric Power Will Save No Significant Oil • Oil Use is 2% of Current Electric Fuel • Electric Cars can be Charged from Current Non-Oil Night Base Load Plants

  35. Conventional Power Plant Issues • Coal Fired Power Plants • Coal Mining Environmental Impact • Air Quality • Nuclear Power Plants • Economics: High Construction Cost • High Level Radioactive Waste • Hydro • Environmental Impact - Permitting Issues • Natural Gas Power Plants • Environmentally Relatively Clean • High Cost of Natural Gas-Economics • National Security: Importing LNG

  36. Comparison of Levelized Costs

  37. MeetingNew Electric Power Demand

  38. New Power Plant Technologies • New Generation Nuclear Plants • Permits being Prepared for 2017 Start Up • Capital Cost is Uncertain • Waste Fuel Disposal is Issue: Yucca Mountain??? • Coal Gasification with Combined Cycle • Higher Efficiency use of Coal (40% vs 35%) • Coal Strip Mining Environmental Impact • A Winning Coal Technology with CO2 Limits

  39. (cont) New Power Plant Technologies • Wind Energy • Cost can be Competitive with Conventional: • 6 to 8 cents/kWhr • Permitting is Issue • Solar Photovoltaics (PV) • High Cost: • Silicon Technology:30 to 50 cents/kWhr • Better Economics predicted since 1970’s • Good for Off Grid

  40. Economics of RenewableElectrical Power Technologies

  41. “Change” PV Technology • Thin Film PV Technology • First Solar • www.spectrum.ieee.org • Nanosolar • www.nanosolar.com • Reduced PV Power into Grid from $0.40/kW to $0.25/kW?

  42. (cont) Conclusions • Oil is Near Term Problem: • Supply vs. Demand • Electric Power Technology will Not Impact Oil • Economics is Prime Technology Driving Force • PV has Potential for Change Technology

  43. Potential Solutions

  44. Technology is Core • Solutions are Diverse • Thousands of Technology Improvements • Public Policy to Avoid Disruptions • Economic, Social, International

  45. Long Term Electric Power Space Power Recent Thin Film PV Technolgy Moves the Ball Forward

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