Long Kondratieff’ Waves and Cosmic Weather

1. Long Kondratieff’ Waves and Cosmic Weather B.M. Vladimirsky Taurida V.I. Vernadsky University Crimea, Simferopol, Ukraine

2. N.D. Kondratieff (1892-1938) Long waves in generalized economic indeces with the period about 50 years have been revealed as a world phenomenon by N.D. Kondratieff (1925). Now it’s universally recognized that these waves are autooscillations in world economic system.

3. Some other scientists referenced: T.I. Reinoff (1888-1958) Considered long waves as a sociocultural phenomenon. Suggested the changing of the style of intellectual life synchronized with the variations of economic indeces. Interpeted alternation intellectual styles as change of the domination left (right) hemispheres of the brain on social level. S.Yu. Maslov (1939-1982) Have been revealed firstly long waves in the creativity for European physics in the 18th and 19th centuries (1929) Determined reliably the epochs of the domination of left (right) hemispheric styles of the life in the Europe using the measurements of special indeces in fine arts (analitical or synthetical signs in the musics, architecture etc.) V.M. Petrov

4. A comparison of the maxima of Long waves with the nearest maxima of solar activity

5. The duration of 11-year period of solar activity are changing, so Long waves are also the cycles, not fixed periods. The curve is Wolf’ numbers The points are aa – index.

6. Averaged profile for Long Kondratieff’s wave calculated by superpose epoch method for index war activity (H. Wheeler, the curve) and geomagnetic index aa (the points)/ The data for 13-20 centuries were used.

7. The number of the discoveries per year – mean profile for Long wave (superpose epoch method). The data for mathematics, natural sciences, medicine and technology according the list of Ch. Murrey, 2003. Total number of the events 342.

8. The same mean profile for Long wave in discoveries, but for another primary data (K. Twist, 1999). The points – natural sciences, the curve – fine Arts. Total numbers of the events accordingly 321 and 385.

9. The some mean profile for Long waves but for the summary ranges of the writers and the poets as calculated by Ch. Murrey (2003).

10. V.M. PetrovAnalytical signs – Synthetical signs(J.L.David, +0,72) (E. Delacrua, –0,75) All the time intervals, classified by Petrov using analytical – synthetical signs, were summarised by superposed epoch method. The data for the painting, architecture and music were used jointly for 15-20 centures.

11. Main conclusions. Long Kondratieff’s waves are synhronized by solar activity’ variations, probably via magnetospheric processes; creative productivity in rational sphere increases during ascent-decay phases of Long wave, but it diminishes about the maximum; within the Long wave there are regular variations of the predominance of left-right hemisphere’s activity – in an agreement with Maslov model; Long waves is probably the same social cycle which was included into ancient calendar systems – 60-years animal cycle, 52-year mayan cycle; possibly it is most important cycle of social activity; Forth coming maximum of Kondratieff’s wave will come probably in year of maximum of 25th solar cycle, about 2023.