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Power Choices Reloaded

Power Choices Reloaded. Summary presentation by Prof. Pantelis CAPROS (E3MLab) EURELECTRIC, Brussels May 13, 2013. Decarbonisation Roadmaps for the EU. These Roadmaps show common results:.

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Power Choices Reloaded

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  1. Power Choices Reloaded Summary presentation by Prof. Pantelis CAPROS (E3MLab) EURELECTRIC, Brussels May 13, 2013

  2. Decarbonisation Roadmaps for the EU

  3. These Roadmaps show common results:

  4. Cumulative GHG emissions matter for climate change mitigation:all decarbonisation cases deliver equal carbon budget

  5. Deviating from optimal pathway implies higher costs Note: The emission reduction projections do not include possible reduction of fossil fuels prices driven by worldwide climate change mitigation

  6. In Power Choices Reloaded all options are combined to reduce emissions: 39% from energy efficiency 32% from Renewables 11% from nuclear, 6% from CCS and 13% from natural gas

  7. Decarbonisation of electricity generation The Reference scenario already projects a very strong reduction of CO2 emissions in power generation due to the ETS: in 2050, -77% compared to 2010 levels The Power Choices Reloaded suggests full decarbonisation of power generation The ETS allowances annual change until 2050 would be required to become -3% instead of -1.74%, assuming no set-aside

  8. New uses of electricity in decarbonisation context

  9. A systems approach with electricity as main pivot Starting with emissions of 350g/kWh in 2010, the power sector will deliver about 10g/kWh in 2050 in the Power Choices Reloaded scenario. Reaching the whole-economy 2050 goal requires a significant share of final energy use to switch to electricity, notably in the transport sector and heating, thus delivering emissions reductions and efficiency improvements

  10. Completion of the internal market and grid infrastructure Efficient decarbonisation requires sharing of resources in the EU through unobstructed XB trade The reference scenario already assumes implementation of the ENTSOE infrastructure plan. Additional grid investment, post 2020, is assumed in PCR for exploiting RES (e.g. offshore wind) and for integrating decentralized RES Trade volumes in the EU reach 14% of electricity demand in the Power Choices scenario compared to 7.5% in the Reference by 2050

  11. Already in the Reference scenario, ETS drives strong restructuring of power generation in the long term In Power Choices Reloaded additional decarbonisation is achieved mainly through higher RES and CCS post 2030 Gas plays a key role in balancing and reserve services Pumped storage increases and in the long term hydrogen storage emerges

  12. The Lost decade

  13. The Lost Decade Considerable adverse effects on costs and performance (total cost 2% of GDP above PCR) The considerable differences are mainly due to the delay in acting in the demand side (efficiency) and to lock-ins due to lower investment and delays in infrastructure development Increase of energy system costs as percentage of GDP in the Lost decade compared to the PCR

  14. The Lost decade Final consumers in the Lost decade scenario pay significantly higher amounts for purchasing energy products The large differences in the Lost decade scenario are due to the changes in final energy demand which has to recuperate a lack of action until 2030. The countries which pay the most have the highest difficulties in recuperating the lost energy efficiency and in dealing with the lack of electrification in transport. Increase of cumulative fuel purchase costs by final consumers in the Lost decade compared to the PCR

  15. Failures involved in the Lost Decade case Weak carbon market until 2030 Limited financing under uncertainty hampering investment Market coordination failures delaying infrastructure Incompletion of IEM leading to low XB trade Slower pace of technology progress Barriers to Energy Efficiency persisting up to 2030

  16. Investment in PCR Investment costs increase substantially compared to current levels A large part of additional investment will be carried out in consumer premises and for consumer vehicles Investments are compensated by lower fuel purchase requirements as a large part of investments relate to energy saving investments

  17. Economics of Decarbonisation Affordable compared to the Reference Less expensive in the context of a global climate action Highly capital intensive in both demand and supply Timely infrastructure development and coordination with emerging new technologies Consumers are required to spent upfront in order to save on variable costs Except electricity, rest of energy supply sectors see diminishing sales Deviations from optimal trajectory entail significant additional costs

  18. Agenda for the 2020-2030 decade

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