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By Jacques Mairesse † with Yanyun Zhao ‡ and Feng Zhen §

By Jacques Mairesse † with Yanyun Zhao ‡ and Feng Zhen § † INSEE-CREST (Paris, France), UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University, Netherlands) and NBER (USA). Mairesse@ensae.fr ‡ Renmin University of China, No. 59 Zhongguancun Avenue, Beijing, China

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By Jacques Mairesse † with Yanyun Zhao ‡ and Feng Zhen §

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  1. By Jacques Mairesse † with Yanyun Zhao‡ and Feng Zhen§ †INSEE-CREST (Paris, France), UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University, Netherlands) and NBER (USA). Mairesse@ensae.fr ‡ Renmin University of China, No. 59 Zhongguancun Avenue, Beijing, China §Central University of Finance and Economics (Beijing, China) and UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University, Netherlands) Beijing Metropolitan International Statistics Forum 2008 Employment Growth and Product Innovation in China:A Firm Level Comparison across Provinces and City Districts

  2. OUTLINE • Innovation and Employment • Data and Descriptive Statistics • Empirical Framework and Estimates • Employment GrowthDecomposition • Perspectives and Data Requirements for Further Analysis

  3. Innovation and Employment • Innovation and its importance in world development • Innovation and employment • Assessing the impact of innovation on employment at the firm level: positive or negative? large or small? • Present analysis for four industries: Textile, Wearing Apparel, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment, and three recent years 2004-2006

  4. Data and Descriptive Statistics • NBS’s annual industry survey of all State-owned firms, and non-state-owned firms with sales higher than 5 million RMB Yuan (i.e., Limited-liability, Share-holding, Private, Hong-Kong, Macao and Taiwan, Foreign) • Data: 2004-2006, 4 industries: Textile, Wearing appeal, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment • Cleaning: Sales>=5 million, Employment>=10 Growth rate of Fixed assets, Sales, Labor [5, 95] After that, keep provinces with number of firms>2 • Coverage about 60% in four industries, varying from about 50% to 70% across provinces

  5. Descriptive Statistics • 2004-2006 Growth rate of labor in Textile, Wearing Apparel, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment: - China: 5.9 % ; 5.4 %; 8.8 %;13.8 % - Beijing: 5.4 % ; 3.3 %; 7.3 %;10.1 % • 2004-2006 Corresponding Growth rate of productivity: - China: 29.6% ; 27.1%; 27.2%;27.8% - Beijing: 17.8% ; 17.4%; 19.1%; 21.9%

  6. Descriptive Statistics • 2004-2006 Growth rate of Output in Textile, Wearing Apparel, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment: - China: 35.5 % ; 32.5 %; 36.0 %;41.6 % - Beijing: 23.3 % ; 20.7 %; 24.2 %; 32.0 % • 2006 percentage Shares of new products introduced in 2004-2006 (NPPO): - China: 5.9% ; 2.8%; 6.5%;10.3% - Beijing: 9.2% ; 5.1%; 9.6%; 54.5%

  7. Descriptive Statistics • 2004-2006 Growth rate of Output in Textile, Wearing Apparel, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment for product innovating firms (all products: “new” and “old”): - China: 40.3 % ; 40.0 %; 37.2 %; 39.5 % - Beijing: 23.3 % ; 20.7 %; 24.2 %; 32.0 % • 2004-2006 Corresponding Growth rate of output for product non-innovating firms (“old products”): - China: 35.1 % ; 32.0 %; 35.7 %; 42.1 % - Beijing: 23.3 % ; 20.7 %; 24.2 %; 32.0 %

  8. Descriptive Statistics • 2004-2006 Growth rate of Output in Textile, Wearing Apparel, Transport Equipment, Electronic Equipment for product innovating firms (“new products” only): g2-new = (NPPO).(1+g-all) - China: 51.6 % ; 71.9 %; 57.2 %; 90.1 % - Beijing: … % ; … %; … %; … % • 2004-2006 Growth rate of Outputfor product innovating firms (“old products” only): g1-old = (g-all) - (g2-new) - China: -11.2 % ; -31.9 %; -20.0 %; -50.6 % - Beijing: … % ; … %; … %; … %

  9. Average 2004-2006 growth rates of Employment by provinces

  10. Average growth rates 2004-2006 of Output by provinces

  11. Average growth rates 2004-2006 of Productivity by provinces

  12. Average percentage share of “New Products” (NPPO) * Note: The proportion of electronic equipment in Beijing is 54.5%, too high to be included in the graph.

  13. Labor growth by old products Labor growth by new products Empirical Framework… (1) (2) : Output growth of old products : Output growth of new products : Relative efficiency of old and new products

  14. Empirical Framework… (3) Regression model Region Dummies Ownership Dummies Sub-industry Dummies

  15. Dependent: Growth of Employment (l_g1) Textile Wearing Apparel Transport Equipment Electronic Equipment OLS Output Growth for 0.832 *** 0.872 *** 0.850 *** 0.873 *** New Products (g2) (0.018 ) (0.024 ) (0.018 ) (0.014 ) Root MSE 0.466 0.476 0.438 0.463 IV_1 Output Growth for 0.938 *** 0.924 *** 0.973 *** 1.231 *** New Products (g2) (0.133 ) (0.299 ) (0.067 ) (0.069 ) Root MSE 0.466 0.476 0.439 0.497 IV_2 Output Growth for 1.126 *** 1.263 *** 1.036 *** 1.250 *** New Products (g2) (0.123 ) (0.266 ) (0.064 ) (0.067 ) Root MSE 0.470 0.486 0.442 0.501 Number of Firms 12721 6199 5656 4184 …and Estimates

  16. Employment GrowthDecomposition (4) Employment decomposition Average specific trend Growth due to non-innovators Old products Growth due to product innovators New products

  17. China (2004-2006) European Manufacturing (1998-2000) Industry / Country Textile Wearing Apparel Transport Equipment Electronic Equipment France Germany Spain UK Italy Employment growth 5.9 5.4 8.8 13.8 8.3 5.9 14.2 6.7 2.5 Average specific trend -30.2 -28.3 -27.6 -32.1 -1.9 -7.5 -5.7 -5 -5.6 Growth due to non-innovators 32.2 30.0 29.3 33.9 4.7 5.4 12.5 7.9 5.8 Growth due to product innovation 3.9 3.6 7.1 12.0 5.5 8.0 7.4 3.9 2.4 of which: old product -0.9 -2.0 -3.6 -9.8 - - - - - new product 4.8 5.6 10.7 21.8 - - - - - Number of Observations 12721 6199 5656 4184 4631 1319 4548 2493 4618 Employment GrowthDecomposition (log.)

  18. Employment GrowthDecomposition__Electronic * * * * ** * *After cleaning, the number of firms in these provinces are less than 20, and not included in the estimation.

  19. Some references Harrison, R., J. Jaumandreu, J. Mairesse and B. Peters (2008), "Does Innovation Stimulate Employment? A Firm-level Analysis Using Comparable Micro-data from four European countries", NBER WP 14216, August 2008. Hall, B.H., F. Lotti and J. Mairesse (2008), "Employment, Innovation, and Productivity:Evidence from Italian Micro-data", Industrial and Corporate Change, 17 (4), pp. 813-839. Ping He, Jinchang Qian, Nannan Lundin, and Fredrick Sjöholm (2008), "Technology Development and Job Creation in China’s Manufacturing Sector", Mimeo presented at the 2d MEIDE Conference, Renmin University, Beijing, April 21-23, 2008. …

  20. Perspectives and Data requirements for Further Analysis Process innovation Employment by skills Output prices Wage differentials Other demand shifters: export From firm level analysis to macro analysis: survival, strategic behavior from competitors, ... …and more

  21. Last but not Least “Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.” Albert EINSTEIN THANK YOU! Jacques Mairesse (INSEE-CREST, UNU-MERIT and NBER) E-mail: mairesse@ensae.fr

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