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Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics

Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics. Outline: Economic Background What are the success factors? What can we learn from the past? What does this mean for the future? Summary / Conclusions. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics.

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Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics

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  1. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Outline: • Economic Background • What are the success factors? • What can we learn from the past? • What does this mean for the future? • Summary / Conclusions W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  2. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Economic Background “…and you are once again reminded that this is no longer just an industry, but an economic and cultural phenomenon, a crucial force at the heart of the modern world” (Gordon Moore, founder of INTEL, 2002) W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  3. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Economic Background • CAGR of the semiconductor industry: 14% • CAGR of the semiconductor industry: 10% • CAGR of the world economy industry: 6% (note the vertical log scale) W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  4. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Economic Background • After Mozer 2004 W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  5. Overview Value ChainSemiconductor&Electronics Industry CPUs, Memories PCs, servers, Internet, Com- puter Science, Robotics,.... Devices concepts, Materials Logic ICs, Gate Arrays, DSPs, µ controllers Consumer, Control, Industrial Electr, Mobile Comm,.. Integrated Circuits Technology* Safety, Crypto, Communication, Automobile,.. Chip Cards, BiCMOS, Bipolar Household, Power, Automobile, transport,.. MOSFets, IGBTs, GTO Thyristors W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  6. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Outline: • Economic Background • What are the success factors? • What can we learn from the past? • What does this mean for the future? • Summary / Conclusions W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  7. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What are the success factors? The end customer has to benefit in terms of: • The product conforms to specifications and is reliable • The product does not cost too much • The product is delivered on time W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  8. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Outline: • Economic Background • What are the success factors? • What can we learn from the past? • What does this mean for the future? • Summary / Conclusions W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  9. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What can we learn from the past? Example 150200: • Superior technological solution • 30% higher productivity at IC manufacture • Benefit must be significantly higher than cost • Cost per cm2 was significantly higher! • Wafers are part of the „food chain“ in industrial mass production, therefore the following factors are essential: • Security of supply:Problems at transition • Price (not necessarily proportional to cost in monopoly situation!Price increases during transiton • Partnership: no • Synchronization of production capacity and demand:very poor • Learning curve:too slow initially, only one user for a long time • Standardization:anything but standardized! • Reliability: ok W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  10. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What can we learn from the past? Example 200300: • Superior technological solution • 30% higher productivity at IC manufacture • Benefit must be significantly lower than cost • Cost per cm2 was a higher, but design for cost • Wafers are part of the „food chain“ in industrial mass production, therefore the following factors are essential: • Security of supply: no problems • Price : agreed price roadmap! • Partnership: Yes! • Synchronization of production capacity and demand: Yes! • Learning curve: intensive benchmarking between suppliers and good feedback from users  fast progress • Standardization: not perfect but not far from it • Reliability: ok W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  11. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What can we learn from the past? Example „perfect silicon“: • Technical background: Gate oxide yield limited by voids in the silicon: W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  12. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What can we learn from the past? Example defect-free materials: • Technical background: pulling process modified so that void formation suppressed Vacancy-defect crystal type: voids, COPs, GOI failures (R. Falster et al 1998) Perfect crystal type: completely free of micro-defects. (R. Falster et al 1998) W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  13. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics What can we learn from the past? Example defect-free materials: • Technical background: pulling process modified so that void formation suppressed • Status: • Still not the main stream material, although technically clearly superior • Combination materials exist (anneal + modified pulling process)  cost advantage • As technology advances, the new material(s) may or may not become the main material, depending on the benefit to cost ratio W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  14. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 1965 to 1995 1995 to 2001 • One technology generation every 3 years. • Semiconductor sales grew at 15% per year. • One technology generation every 2 years. • 2001 industry sales is about the same as 1995 sales, however profit is lower. Worst 6 year period on record. • Hypotheses: • Market and applications need time to digest advances in technology and manufacturing productivity. • One generation per 3 years may be better for market growth than every 2 years. • Technology is 4 years ahead of long-term historical trend. CPU transistor is 9 years ahead. What can we learn from the past? Design Rule shrink (after C.C. HU) W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  15. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Outline: • Economic Background • What are the success factors? • What can we learn from the past? • What does this mean for the future? • Summary / Conclusions W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  16. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? : • The situation: For the past 30 years there has been a yearly • 17% performance increase • 50% reduction in power consumption • 40% price decrease per transistor  Yearly growth of the industry by 14% per year, not $200billion/a • Butnow Brick walls?: • Gate oxide leakage for thickness 1nm • Short channel effects for sub 100nm devices • High cost for litho tools and masks W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  17. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics $100,000,000 EUV for 32nm node Includes historical data for both steppers and scanners of all makes and models from $10,000,000 various manufacturers including ASET, ASML, Cameca Instruments, Censor AG, Canon, 157nm for 45nm node Eaton, GCA, General Signal, Hitachi, Nikon, Perkin-Elmer, and Ultratech. 193nm HiNA for 65nm node Tool Price ($) $1,000,000 $100,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Date 3. What does this mean for the future? : W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  18. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Stepper Masks Scanner Masks Mask Costs 120 Arbitrary Units 100 80 60 40 20 0 A B C D E F G H I J 0.25um 0.13um 90nm Feature Size 0.50um C.C. HU 2003: Cost of Stepper/Scanner Masks versus Metal Mask Grade / Feature Size 3. What does this mean for the future? W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  19. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? : • Solution (may-be): wafers with functional layers, since higher packing density without shrinking the design rule W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  20. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? Technology which do not require the tightest design rules : Commodity products • Bipolar, BiCMOS • Discretes • Power • Sensor chips • Relax and optimize parameters as much as possible • Standardization could be the key to cost reduction Cost reduction! W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  21. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? Technology which do not require the tightest design rules : After H.P. Klose and G. Wucher 2003 (Bosch) W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  22. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? Technology which do not require the tightest design rules : Commodity segments with • High growth rate • High microelectronic content W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  23. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? Technology which do not require the tightest design rules : W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  24. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics 3. What does this mean for the future? Technology which do not require the tightest design rules : W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  25. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Outline: • Economic Background • What are the success factors? • What can we learn from the past? • What does this mean for the future? • Summary / Conclusions W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  26. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Summary / Conclusions : Wafers for the microelectronics industry are essential elements in the mass production supply and value chain, this implies: • Technical excellence is not a goal in itself, • but only of the benefit outweighs the cost significantly (to offset the risk and cost for a production change) • There is a lot of room for innovation, it must be used intelligently (in terms of does it rally create added-value) and cost-consciously! Additional factors: • Security of supply • Price (not necessarily proportional to cost in monopoly situation!) • Synchronization of production capacity and demand • partnership • Learning curve • Standardization • IC reliability W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

  27. Future trends of wafer types and materials in microelectronics Semi-optimistic View (after C.C. Hu): 20012025-2030 CMOS Technology 130nm 9nm IC’s*) % of GWP 0.4% 3% World IC Sales $140B $3,000B *)all types of technologies Contribution of Wafer Manufacturers and Reseach Community to make this happen: The right wafer types / materials at the right time for the right price Summary / Conclusions : W. Bergholz 23rd SEP 2004

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