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This study analyzes crash rates per 10,000 male probationary drivers with a peer passenger, using statistical regression models. It accounts for seasonal variations and pre-law trends to predict crash rates.
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Figure 3f. Estimated rate (per 10,000 drivers) among male probationary drivers for peer passenger crashes. Rate (per 10,000 drivers) Legend: Grey dotted line: Observed monthly crash rates Solid black line: Estimated crash rate from negative binomial regression model is linear in two pieces, excludes Feb-Apr 2010, and accounts for seasonal variation (Jan-Mar, Jun-Aug, other) when appropriate. Dotted black line: Predicted crash rate assuming continuation of pre-law trend.