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U sing an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change

This presentation by Michael Tarbert explores the impacts of climate change on road infrastructure through the Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS). The study emphasizes the importance of adapting infrastructure to climate realities, highlighting the vulnerabilities faced by developing countries. Using global climate modeling, the research quantifies costs associated with climate change and provides valuable insights for policymakers to navigate future infrastructure planning. The findings stress the necessity for infrastructure adaptation to mitigate financial and social risks.

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U sing an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change

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  1. Using an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change Presentation by: Michael Tarbert Environmental Sustainability REU Advisor: Dr. Chinowsky Mentor: Amy Schweikert

  2. Presentation Outline • Project Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions • Summary

  3. ICliCS, IPSS, Research Importance Project BAckground

  4. Background • ICliCS researches the immediate and far reaching effects of climate, both quantitatively and qualitatively on basic infrastructure. • Contracts with International organizations and governments.

  5. Background: Infrastructure • Why is infrastructure important? • Key to economic growth. • Important for social growth, especially in developing countries. • Indicator for all 8 Millennium Development goals (African Union, 2005)

  6. Background: Importance • Why is climate change important to infrastructure? • First, we must accept climate change is currently happening, and will continue to occur. • Second, we must understand the importance of Infrastructure and transportation networks to the human population. • Third, infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. • This study focuses on the road transportation

  7. Background: IPSS • Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) • Program that utilizes global climate modeling predictions through the year 2100 to produce quantitative data • Monetary costs to adapt, and not to adapt to climate change (Produce annual costs) • Study uses IPSS to: • quantify the impacts climate change (temperature and precipitation) on road infrastructure. • Assist policymakers to determine future actions.

  8. Background: Purpose • The purpose of this study is to update a former study- ‘Climate change: comparative impact on developing and developed countries’ (Chinowsky et al. 2011) • Climate change impacts on road infrastructure in 10 different countries, ranging from Lower to Upper income levels. • Show why adapting is necessary • Show why developing countries are especially in danger!

  9. Background: 10 Countries

  10. Climate Modeling, Road Impacts Methodology

  11. Methodology: Climate Modeling • Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) • 54 IPCC approved models • Future climate predictions • GIS as a tool using Climate Research Units (CRU) (grid structure) • Climate data (GCM’s) applied to road inventory by CRU grid.

  12. Methodology: Road Impacts • IPSS looks for stress factors • Precipitation or temperature threshold is exceeded, inducing extra maintenance cost. • Left with decision: To adapt, or not to adapt… • Unpaved  Gravel • Gravel  Update drainage methods • Paved  Update Binder types • ***No adapt incurs increased maintenance costs

  13. Median/Max costs, Opportunity Cost, Risk Analysis Results

  14. Results: determining Max/Median Finding Median and Maximum Costs by GCM

  15. Results: Opportunity Cost • Universal evaluation method developed by ICliCS • OCx=(CCx⁄SRCx)/PRx • X- country of interest • OC- Opportunity Cost (%) • CC- Total cost of climate change • SRC- cost to construct 1 km of secondary paved road • PR- Countries current paved road stock • Shows the amount of paved road inventory a country could have constructed through 2100

  16. Results: Opportunity Cost

  17. Results: Risk Analysis

  18. Results: Risk Analysis

  19. Results: Risk Analysis

  20. Adapting, Developing Countries, Future Work Conclusions

  21. Conclusions • Adapting road infrastructure is beneficial • It makes ‘cents’ • Positive social implications • Assists in meeting MDG

  22. Conclusions • Developing countries incur the most cost • Yet, have the least amount of resources to adapt let alone expand infrastructure • IPSS is a tool that can be used to formulate infrastructure plans and mitigate climate change impacts

  23. Conclusions: Future Work • Sustainable construction practices • More in-depth country detail- accuracy • Including a growth function for road stock • More realistic approach

  24. Questions?

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