The Future of Warfare

1. The Future of Warfare LTC (Retired) Oakland McCulloch

2. Outline • Theorists • Huntington: Clash of Civilizations • Kaplan: Anarchy • Toffler: Third Wave Warfare • Lind: Fourth Generation Warfare • Barnett: Core & Gaps • Military Operations in an Urban Environment • Asymmetric Warfare • US Version of Warfare – American Way of War • My View

3. The Future of Warfare Samuel Huntington – Clash of Civilizations • Conflict is now cultural, not ideological or economic • Civilization is highest grouping of people & is defined by: • Language, History, Religion, Customs, Institutions • World shaped by interactions between 7 or 8 civilizations: • Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, • Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, African(?) • Civilizations will clash on two levels: • Micro-level: Adjacent groups along historic fault-lines • Macro-level: States of different civilizations compete • for power to promote values

4. The Future of Warfare Robert Kaplan – Anarchy • Real Danger is criminal anarchy caused by: • Disease, Over Population, Crime, Scarce Resources, • Refugee Migration, Erosion of Nation-States & • Borders, Private Armies & Drug Cartels • Will lead to civil violence and wars • Bifurcated World • - Technological, sophisticated and wealthy • - Poor, subsistence and unhealthy • Environment is a National Security issue • Lies of the mapmakers

5. The Future of Warfare Tofflers – Third Wave Warfare • Nations conduct war as they generate wealth • Three waves • - Agricultural • - Industrial • - Information • Emerging trisected world • A new rise in Nationalism around the world • Wars will be different from what we now expect • based on Information • technology will take the place of most humans

6. The Future of Warfare William Lind – Fourth Generation Warfare • a concept in American military doctrine defined in 1989used • to describe warfare's return to a decentralized form • 4GW signifies the nation states' loss of their monopoly on • combat forces, returning in a sense to the uncontrolled • combat of pre-modern times • includes any war in which one of the major participants is not • a state but rather a violent ideological network • characterized by a blurring of the lines between war and • politics, soldier and civilian, peace and conflict, battlefield • and safety

7. The Future of Warfare Thomas Barnett – The Core and The Gap • the end of the Cold War brought more problems than • solutions – a loss of order • the Non-Functioning Gap vs the Functioning Core • the rise of Asymmetrical Warfare • it’s not the end of the world – natural reordering will occur

8. The Future of Warfare Why Combat in Urban Areas? * In 1920, only one nation had over 50% of its population residing in cities over 20,000. * By 1965, 25% of world’s population lived in cities. * In 2000, that figure had risen to 45% * By 2015 it is estimated that some 60% of the world’s population will live in urban areas. * In 1950, only 3 of of the top 10 most populous cities were in developing countries. In 1993, that number was 17 of the top 25. * In 2015, 27 cities will have a population in excess of 10 million.

9. The Future of Warfare Why Combat in Urban Areas? • Allows an inferior force to negate the Western • powers technological advantages • Makes intelligence gathering much more difficult • Modern day jungle where insurgents and terrorists • can easily hide and be supported • Makes fighting a war within the laws of land • warfare while under constant media coverage • difficult – civilian casualties and suffering • Target rich environment for terrorists & insurgents

10. The Future of Warfare Asymmetric Warfare • A term that describes a military situation in which two • belligerents of unequal strength interact and take • advantage of their respective strengths and weaknesses • Asymmetric warfare is nothing new • now the main tactic instead of on the periphery • Made much more lethal by the ability of • insurgents, militias and terrorists to purchase • modern military weapons on the open market • Modern technology makes asymmetric warfare • more effective • internet, cell phones, media coverage

11. The Future of Warfare US Version of Warfare • No peer competitor until 2020 or beyond • Joint, Combined, Interagency, Coalition • Precision and lethal • 3 block wars • humanitarian, peace keeping and warfighting • all in the same day in a three block area • Technology and Information combined with an • empowered Soldier

12. The Future of Warfare LTC McCulloch’s Views • not the end of civilization as we know it! • a mix between Kaplan and Barnett • US and Western powers will remain the dominate military • power for the foreseeable future • continued use of terrorism & asymmetrical warfare • continued fight against Islamic extremists • a terrorist use of a WMD on US soil will occur • this century will be very bloody • wars fought over nationalism, terrorism, religion & • resources • Global War on Terrorism (“Overseas Contingency Operation”) • will be a long war • Democrat or Republican • Cost will be enormous

13. The Future of Warfare Questions ?