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The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand?

The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand?. William Reno Northwestern University reno@northwestern.edu , www.willreno.org. Studying change in warfare: Focus on components or logics?. Actors Goals Methods Resources

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The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand?

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  1. The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand? William Reno Northwestern University reno@northwestern.edu, www.willreno.org

  2. Studying change in warfare: Focus on components or logics? • Actors • Goals • Methods • Resources What changes the logics of violence and what are the consequences of these changes for the components of warfare?

  3. Past Futures of Warfare: Dar es Salaam, 1965: Why these particular actors, goals, methods, resources? US activist Cora Weiss with African liberation movement leaders. Back from left: PascoalMocumbi, Frente de Libertação de Moçambique [FRELIMO]; Eduardo Mondlane, President of FRELIMO; Weiss; Amilcar Cabral, President of the PartidoAfricano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde [PAICG]. [African activist archive, MSU]

  4. Past Futures of Warfare Narratives of conflict [Solidarity Poster of Africa’s Future, c.1970, from Inkworks Press, Berkeley, CA]

  5. Present futures of warfare – What has changed? • Networks: New or just more intense versions of old ones? • Cultural narratives: These have always played roles in conflicts, but more now? • Communication: A qualitative or a quantitative change? • Internal character of state authority:

  6. Present Futures of Warfare: Incorporating more networks, such as cocaine trafficking [From David Blair, “Special Report: West Africa welcomes Latin America’s drug barons,” Telegraph, 3 Dec 2008.]

  7. Present futures: Shifts in global narratives, new ways of expressing identities Freetown, Sierra Leone street scene: West Side Boys & Tupac imagery

  8. Telecommunications: Mobile phone service reaches everywhere (Batkano, Sierra Leone in the 2000s.)

  9. State authority & symmetrical irregular warfare Sierra Leone highway in 1990 Sierra Leone highway in 2013

  10. SSUM/A Paulino Matiep500 (2500) DOLEIB FORCES Thomas Mabor 100 (1127) MELUT PEACE FORCE William deng2000 (300) SSLM/A Gabriel Yoal Doc500 (700) THE UNITED FACTION James Othow500 (2116) SABRI ACHOL FORCES Sabin Achol 100 (445) 28 29 19 26 27 9 1 ADONG FORCE John Mankoer100 (413) MOBILE FORCES Vincent Kuany500 (866) 14 16 SOBAT FORCE Simon Yei300 (500) ALLAK DENGFACTION Allak Deng500 (150) AKOBO FORCES Timothy Juoc300 (650) 17 10 PARIANG FORCES Samuel Mayiek300 (1500) NASIR POP. DEF. John Jok100 (300) MUSA DOULA FACTION Musa Doula 500 (300) SIMON GATWICH Simon Gatwich 150 (2000) 32 35 4 SSIM/A Peter Dor400 (1900) CHAYOT FACTION Saddam Chayot400 (950) MABANFORCES Musa Birima50 (250) NATIONAL PEACE FORCEEl Tom El Nur 100 (3000) 3 37/38 GADET’S FORCES Peter Gadet 100 (350) FANGAK FORCES Gabriel Tang 500 (3350) 30 36 21/22 11 5 SSDF – ABYEY Thomas Thiel 50 (600) BALKOK POP. DEF. Hassan Doyak200 (500) AWEIL GROUP Abdel Bagi200 (1500) BOYA/DIDINGA FORCES Mahamed Losek 50 (180) CHOL GAGA GROUP Hassan Doyak100 (500) 31 6 23 RENK PEACE FORCE Chol Al Ahmar100 (400) NASIR GROUP Gordon Kong400 (3500) AKOKA FORCE Thon Amum 100 (410) KALTOK FORCES Gabriel Mding Fon50 (250) MUNDARI FORCES Clement Wani 400 (4900) LAFON FORCES Kamal R. Beligo 50 (100) 20 Part of SSDF (prior to the Juba declaration). 24 39 15 7 Associated, but not officially an integrated part of SSDF. Aligned with SPLA. Aligned with SAF. Sometimes referredto as Central Equatoria Defence Forces. Mainly aligned with SAF. Some sub-units aligned with SPLA. JEBEL FORCES II John Both Tap500 (1350) SSDF originators (Khartoum Peace Agreement). ABOY GROUP Paul Aboy 100 (300) CHOL LEWIS FACTION Chol Lewis200 (1227) DINNI FORCES Hassan Doyak200 (500) PIBOR DEF. FORCE Ismael Konyi1000 (4000) W. EQUATORIAPOP. DEF. Steward Soroba 50 (100) Reportedly aligned with SPLA. To be verified. Originated from Anyanya 2 Originated from SPLA 34 12 Mainly emerged after the Juba declaration. Splinter groups/re-hatted PDF. SAF garrisons/locations. SAF/OAG/PDF/MI-elements often co-located. 25 W. EQUATORIA DEF. FORCE xxx 50 (150) 40/41 8 EDF-SSDF(EDF II) Fabiano Odongi 500 (2850) TOPOSA FORCES Chief Lokipapa 50 (600) BAR EL JEBEL FORCES Paulino Lonyombe 500 (950) BOR GROUP Kelia Deng Kelly 100 (230) 50 33 43 49 45 44 48 46 47 STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN (K-7) LEGEND The locations/areas on this map are approximate. Names, sectors, locations, alignements, affiliation are to be verified. SPLA deployment areas/locations.

  11. What is a “network” in the context of a state that has very weak bureaucracies? [And what is on Riek Machar’s reading table?]

  12. The uses of an AK-47 in the mind of the artist The puzzle of why narratives in really awful places remain so parochial: [The wall of a medical clinic, Lofa County, Liberia during the LURD offensive, 2003]

  13. New social structures of Violence: Slightly demobilized RUF, Sierra Leone Observe the attire: Distinguishing units and commander position and associations by footwear, 1999

  14. As go states, so goes the future of Warfare. Think of wars & states: Where one finds ‘Conventional’ states, one tends to find armed groups with bureaucratic hierarchies. Where modernist visions of states fail, so goes the vision of unified armed groups.

  15. The End: ECOMOG position, Monrovia Sometime back in the ‘90s

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