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SKUNK

SKUNK. Developing a better foundation of mathematical probability. All You Ever Wanted to Know About The History of Probability in Five Minutes or Less. 1560s (published 1663) –  Cardano 's Liber de ludo aleae  attempts to calculate probabilities of dice throws

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SKUNK

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  1. SKUNK Developing a better foundation of mathematical probability

  2. All You Ever Wanted to Know About The History of Probability in Five Minutes or Less • 1560s (published 1663) – Cardano'sLiber de ludoaleae attempts to calculate probabilities of dice throws • 1654 – Pascal and Fermat create the mathematical theory of probability, • 1657 – Huygens's De ratiociniis in ludoaleae is the first book on mathematical probability, • 1866 – Venn's Logic of Chance defends the frequency interpretation of probability. • 1921 – Keynes' Treatise on Probability defends a logical interpretation of probability, • 2003 – E.T. Jaynes'sProbability Theory: The Logic of Science defends probability theory as a comprehensive method of evaluation of evidence

  3. Social Connections • Everyone plays the probability game • Children as young as 5 start playing with probability • Students start learning about probability as early as1st grade • People generally get better, although some much more so at probability and predicting outcomes

  4. Educational Connections • Mathematics • Statistics • Finance • A.I. • Philosophy

  5. Real World Connections • Gambling • Betting • Wagers • Lying • Hard Work

  6. Students Will: • Practice decision making skills • Investigate winning strategies • Gain a basic understanding of experimental probability

  7. Questions? • I might make more money if I was in business for myself; should I quit my job? • An earthquake might destroy my house; should I buy insurance? • My mathematics teacher might collect homework today; should I do it?

  8. Responses?

  9. SKUNK Directions • Each letter of SKUNK represents a different round of the game; play begins with the "S" column and continue through the "K" column. The object of SKUNK is to accumulate the greatest possible point total over five rounds. The rules for play are the same for each of the five rounds. • At the beginning of each round, every player stands. Then, a pair of dice is rolled. (Everyone playing uses that roll of the dice; unlike other games, players do not roll the dice for just themselves.) • A player gets the total of the dice and records it in his or her column, unless a "one" comes up. • If a "one" comes up, play is over for that round and all the player's points in that column are wiped out. • If "double ones" come up, all points accumulated in prior columns are wiped out as well. • If a "one" doesn't occur, the player may choose either to try for more points on the next roll (by continuing to stand) or to stop and keep what he or she has accumulated (by sitting down). • Note: If a "one" or "double ones" occur on the very first roll of a round, then that round is over and each player must take the consequences.

  10. References • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_probability_and_statistics • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_probability • http://illuminations.nctm.org/LessonDetail.aspx?id=L248 • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

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