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PVAAS F2F Overview: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance

PVAAS F2F Overview: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance. Fall 2013. Goal of Session. By the end of the session, participants will be able to answer the following questions: What is PVAAS? How does PVAAS measure growth? What does PVAAS tell us about growth in our district and school(s)?

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PVAAS F2F Overview: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance

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  1. PVAAS F2F Overview:Evaluating Growth,Projecting Performance Fall 2013

  2. Goal of Session By the end of the session, participants will be able to answer the following questions: • What is PVAAS? • How does PVAAS measure growth? • What does PVAAS tell us about growth in our district and school(s)? • What does PVAAS tell us about how students are projected to perform on a future state assessment? F2F Overview 2013

  3. What Is PVAAS? F2F Overview 2013

  4. What is PVAAS? • Longitudinal analysis of existing state assessment data • Reliable estimates of academic growth & projections of future performance • Effectiveness of the educational system F2F Overview 2013

  5. What is PVAAS? Grade 5 Grade 6 • Growth of a group of students over time • NOT a simple comparison of test scores Grade 3 Grade 4 F2F Overview 2013

  6. PVAAS Addresses Complex Issues! Research-based Statistical Modeling F2F Overview 2013

  7. Demographics and Growth As long as you can sufficiently account for the prior achievementof the student,… …there is NO significant relationship between demographics and student progress, or growth! F2F Overview 2013

  8. Prior Achievement How can we adequately account for prior achievement? • The SAS EVAAS team has found that the only way to adequately account for prior achievement is to use ALL available test data for each student to dampen the effects of measurement error. • PVAAS does NOT need to adjust for the demographic status of students directly since it is accounting for students’ prior achievement. • In other words, demographics are inherently controlled for in PVAAS by the use of all longitudinal data on all students. F2F Overview 2013

  9. Activity Work with a partner to decide if each statement is true or false. F2F Overview 2013

  10. What is PVAAS? F2F Overview 2013

  11. PVAAS Value-Added ReportingHow is growth measured in PVAAS? F2F Overview 2013

  12. PVAASValue-Added Reporting F2F Overview 2013

  13. Measuring Academic Growth Students don’t all start the year at the same place academically F2F Overview 2013

  14. Measuring Academic Growth • Standard for PA Academic Growth • Regardless of their entering achievement level, students should not lose ground academically • Is it not a reasonable goal to maintain the achievement level of a group of students? • Not necessarily increase their achievement level, but maintain their achievement level. F2F Overview 2013

  15. PVAAS Value-AddedGrowth Indicators F2F Overview 2013

  16. Measuring Growth in PVAAS • Remember, PVAAS does NOT compare the achievement of one group of students in a particular subject and grade with the previous year’s students in the same subject and grade. • PVAAS does NOT use the percentages of students at various academic performance levels to measure growth. • PVAAS uses students’ scale scores within those performance levels to better estimate growth. F2F Overview 2013

  17. Growth Measures Not Reportedfor Prior Years • PA’s state assessment system is transitioning to include Keystone end-of-course exams and statewide assessments aligned to the PA Common Core over the next several years. • Growth Measures in prior years will NOT be included in fall 2013 reporting (SY12-13). • Anticipated that Growth Measures from up to 3 previous years with 3-year averages will be yielded and reported beginning with fall 2015 reporting (SY14-15). F2F Overview 2013

  18. PVAAS Value-AddedGrowth Measures • For Science, Writing and Keystone content areas, Growth is measured in scale score points. • The Growth Measure is NOT reported in years and cannot be referenced in terms of number of year’s growth. • The Growth Measure is NOT reported in percentages and cannot be referenced in terms of an increase or decrease in percentage points. F2F Overview 2013

  19. Purpose of Value-Added & Performance Diagnostic Reports • Assessing curricular needs across grades, subjects, and Keystone content areas • Evaluating instructional needs of students at various achievement levels and in different subgroups • Ensuring instructional coherence/alignment • Curriculum Instruction Assessment • Supports, including scheduling and staffing needs • Monitoring implementation and effectiveness of grade-level or course-specific programs F2F Overview 2013

  20. What Are Projections? Given a specific set of circumstances… …what’s the most likely outcome? F2F Overview 2013

  21. Setting Expectations How do teachers set expectations for their students? • Information • What do they know about this student? • Experience • How have students like this one performed in the past? F2F Overview 2013

  22. PVAAS ProjectionsWhat are they based on? Expectations based on what we know: About this student: • Prior test scores • Across subjects F2F Overview 2013

  23. PVAAS ProjectionsWhat are they based on? About other students: • Prior test scores across subjects • Scores on the test to which we are projecting F2F Overview 2013

  24. What Are PVAAS Projections? Given this student’s testing history, across subjects… …what is the student likely to score on an upcoming test, assuming the average schooling experience? F2F Overview 2013

  25. Student Projection Methodology What data are used in calculating projections? F2F Overview 2013

  26. Student Projection Methodology Which students have projections? In what subjects? • Projections are available for all students who have a minimum of 3 data points. The exception to this are projections to grade 4 where only 2 data points from grade 3 are needed. • The next two slides detail the grade levels, subjects, and Keystone content areas in which projections are reported. F2F Overview 2013

  27. PVAAS Projection Reporting: Projections to Keystones (Basic, Proficient, Advanced) • Anticipating projections to future Keystone exams will be available to students who last tested in grade 5 • Remember, projections to a Keystone exam are NOT grade specific • The projection probability indicates the probability of a student reaching the indicated performance level on a future Keystone exam – not necessarily at a specific grade level. F2F Overview 2013

  28. PVAAS Student Projection Report F2F Overview 2013

  29. PVAAS Student Projection Report F2F Overview 2013

  30. PVAAS Student Projection Report F2F Overview 2013

  31. LOOKING AHEAD LOOKING BACK F2F Overview 2013

  32. PA’s Intent for PVAAS • Measure of Growth to Add to Existing Achievement Measures • Indicator of Likelihood of Future Student Performance to Add to Current Achievement Data • Another Tool for Continuous Improvement • Not to Be Used in Isolation F2F Overview 2013

  33. Additional PVAAS Supports http://www.education.state.pa.us/pvaas F2F Overview 2013

  34. PENNSYLVANIAValue Added Assessment System______________________________________________________________________PVAAS www.pde.state.pa.us 333 Market Street Harrisburg, PA 17126

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