Third Lemann Dialogue – “ Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil ”

1. Embrapa StrategicIntelligence System BrazilianAgriculture: Developmentand Future Prospects Geraldo B. Martha Jr. Coordinator – Agropensa System Deputy Head for Strategic Studies, Embrapa Studies and Training Third Lemann Dialogue – “Agricultural and Environmental Issues in Brazil” University of Illinois, 7-8 November 2013

2. Outline Future Intensification Sustainability Cometitiveness Present Innovations Institutions Policies Dependency 1960s – early 1970s

3. BrazilianAgricultureAchievements in thepast 40 Years Overcoming Food Insecurity and Achieving Competitiveness in the Agricultural Sector

4. Sustainability • It is well accepted that sustainability’s dimensions – technical, economic, social and environmental – should be pursued; • Sustainability dimensions’ have strong interdependence linkages and, ideally, should be simultaneously met. In other words, to focus in a unique dimension will not reflect the multiple dimensions of sustainability. Agricultural production systems should design strategies that return win-win situations. When this ideal condition is not an option small loss-big gain situations should be targeted.

5. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Technical Dimension)

6. Total Factor Productivity in Brazilian Agriculture Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).

7. Yield growth rates in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

8. Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

9. Factors of growth in Brazilian agriculture Data from IBGE, calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013). “Productivity explained 79% of the growth in Brazilian beef production in the 1950 – 2006 period. The land-saving effect arising from these productivity gains was 525 million ha!”

10. Intensity of agricultural research investments Development of a science-based tropical agriculture ASTI/CGIAR (2012).

11. Main Limitations Removed by Public R&D in Brazil Prioridades Prioridades Roles and contribution of agricultural research Public R&D operated like a “Track Cleaning Car”, opening the way for a fast moving private sector Transformation of acidic, poor soils intohighlyproductive ag. land “Tropicalization” of crops and animal production systems Development of a Platform of Sustainable Practices Courtesy M.Lopes (2013).

12. Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian agriculture In 2006, the Cerrado’s contribution to Brazilian beef and milk production was around 40% Pereira et al. (2012).

13. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Socio-Economic Dimension)

14. Evolution of food basket prices in São Paulo, Brazil (1975=100, real prices, Sept.2013) Data from DIEESE, deflator IGP-DI (FGV), calculations and elaboration by G.B. Martha (2013).

15. The Development of Brazilian Agriculture (Environmental Dimension)

16. Evolution of the deforestation rates Data from INPE.

17. Biome conservation in Brazil ~ 85% of the Amazon Biome and ~ 55 % of the Cerrado Biome are still covered with the original vegetation ! Natural Cerrado Water body Crops Cultivated pastures Urban areas Reforestation Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008

18. Protected areas and biodiversity potential in selected South America countries “100” is the maximum biodiversity potential. Data from the World Bank.

19. Agriculture +20 Years - ChallengesandOpportunities - InnovationsConnectedtoValueChains

20. Future prospects • A future intensive in knowledge and relationships; • A future with complex trans-boundary challenges (climate change, biological security, …); • A future of increasing complexity demanding timely responses; • Agriculture will be pressured in the direction of multifunctionality (food, feed, fiber, energy, nutrition and health, environmental services, biomass, biomaterials, green chemistry,…); Adapted from M.Lopes (2013).

21. Innovation flow and Embrapa’s macro-themes Flow in agricultural value chain New sciences: biotechnology, nanotechnology, geotechnology Automation, Precision Ag. & ICT Animal and Plant Health and Safety in the value chain Food security, nutrition and health Agroindustry and biomass technology and Green chemistry Production Systems Natural Resources and Climate change Markets, policies and rural development Macro-themes improve the focus and the speed of the intelligence process (collection, organization, analysis) as well as the diffusion of information and knowledge. Source: Embrapa/Agropensa

22. Brazilian agribusiness composition v. possibilities to aggregate value USP/ESALQ/Cepea (2013), elaboration G.B. Martha.

23. Concluding Remarks

24. Concluding remarks • The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; • There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;

25. Concluding remarks Limits for the expansion of supply, if 2013 crop area is maintained Martha Jr.(2013).

26. Concluding remarks Pastoral systems intensification and land-use Martha Jr.(2013).

27. Concluding remarks • The Brazilian agriculture transformation – predominantly based on productivity gains – is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics; • There are clear opportunities to expand food, feed, biomass and fiber production in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance; • Tecnologies for a low-carbon agriculture: availability, investment need, capacity strengthening, adoption;

28. Disseminate information (+ ICT), capacity strengthening, TT

29. Embrapa Strategic Intelligence System "Targeting possible futures, their challenges, solutions and opportunities for the technological development of Brazilian Agriculture" • Thank You !