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Welcome

Welcome. Dr. J. Scott Angle Dean and Director UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. Local Comments . Mr. Steve Taylor Sole Commissioner Bartow County. Summary of the 2014 Georgia Agricultural & Agribusiness Outlook. Dr. Don Shurley Extension Economist,

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Welcome

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Welcome Dr. J. Scott Angle Dean and Director UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences

  2. Local Comments Mr. Steve Taylor Sole Commissioner Bartow County

  3. Summary of the 2014 Georgia Agricultural & Agribusiness Outlook Dr. Don Shurley Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Dr. Kent Wolfe Director UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development

  4. Georgia Row CropsSituation and Outlook for 2014 Nathan Smith, Don Shurley, and Amanda Smith Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics University of Georgia

  5. Row Crop Situation Heading into 2014 • 2013 was a challenging production season with wetter and cooler than normal conditions into mid-summer; then dry late season; early cold temps in the Fall. • Heading into 2014, supply is outpacing demand for most crops. • Prices have been sideways or down for most crops since harvest; cotton would be the exception; 2014 crop prices expected to be below 2013 crop levels.

  6. 2013 – A Mixed Year For Yields * New Record set in 2013

  7. Georgia Major Row Crops Acres Planted1,000 Acres * Tobacco is acres harvested. 2013 are authors projections except wheat.

  8. 2014 Corn Market Factors • Record 2013 production. • Leveling off of corn-starch ethanol industry. • Growing domestic use. • Increase in world production and use (South America shifting back to soybeans).

  9. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand Record high crop in 2013/14 Reversal of trend : now increased stocks

  10. Change in Pattern for Corn Use? Ethanol use flattening out Feed use to rebound Million bushels Feed Ethanol

  11. Corn Price Outlook • South America shifting corn to soybeans. • Exports, livestock feeding and size of U.S. and foreign corn crops will influence corn prices in the future. • Reduced U.S. acres 2 million or more. USDA 1st estimate 90 million, down over 5 million. • Prices likely to range between $4.75 and $4. • Another 14 Bil. Bushel crop could push prices below $4.

  12. Soybean Market Factors Tight US supply situation. Global demand for soybeans and products growing. Bullish exports sales and shipments. Increase in South American production.

  13. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2013 Reversal of down trend in production and use. Tighter supply situation due to increased exports.

  14. World Soybean Trade • US exports increased 14 ½ % this season. China is expected to import 10 million metric tons more this year (2013/14) than last year. • Brazil exports are slowed by infrastructure.

  15. Soybean Price Outlook • Relatively tight US supply again, but World supply not as tight. • Crush about the same as last year. • Exports key for prices heading into 2014, China growth and positive crush returns indicate more soybean imports. • More acres in US and GA, USDA estimate 80 Mil. acres • Prices likely between $10 and $11 per bushel.

  16. Cotton Market Factors For 2014 • Massive record level of World Stocks • Slowly improving World demand • Acreage and production in 2014 • China’s stocks policy and impact on demand for imports (US exports)

  17. China Cotton Production, Use, and Imports -Use has declined dramatically -Production is down -Imports have increased

  18. Ending Stocks, China and Rest of the World (ROW) China has built massive stocks But, ROW has actually declined

  19. China An Increasing Unknown and Source of Instability • Imports cut by ½ this year • News that imports will decline further for 2014 • What will happen to large stocks/reserves? • China began to auction off stocks, mills did not want • Recent news that China may lower internal price.

  20. 2014 Price Outlook • US and World production likely to increase • Demand should continue to improve • Chinese imports (US exports) may decline significantly • Prices (Dec14 futures) likely to range between 75 and 85 cents. • High end of this range and rallies may depend on supply shocks

  21. US Wheat Production & Use

  22. World Wheat Production Billion bushels

  23. Wheat Price Outlook • US wheat supply decreasing but so it price. • Canada record production weighing down prices. • Fewer winter wheat seedings. • Lower prices due to world supplies increasing. • Recent instability in Ukraine has raised wheat prices due to concerns over exports. • Price range likely $5.00 to $5.75

  24. 2014 Net Returns ComparisonNon-Irrigated *Excluding Land Rent and Fixed Costs

  25. Crop Insurance Prices

  26. Crop Insurance Prices *March 6, Close

  27. Georgia Major Row Crops Acres Planted*1,000 Acres * Tobacco is acres harvested. 2013 are authors projections except wheat.

  28. THANK YOU.

  29. Animal Products and Timber Outlook Dr. Kent Wolfe Director, The University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development

  30. Key Factors Impacting Livestock Markets and Profitability • Economy (consumer demand) • Crop prices • Feeder cattle demand • Sector profitability • Big picture items

  31. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  32. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  33. Beef Cattle Situation & Outlook

  34. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  35. BEEF COWS THAT CALVEDJANUARY 1, 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: 29295 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  36. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: -862 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  37. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERSJANUARY 1, 2003 TO JANUARY 2013(1000 Head) U.S. Total: -3236 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

  38. Meat supplies were virtually unchanged for two years in a row Source: USDA-WASDE, January 2014 Report

  39. Past and Projected Prices Source: USDA, LMIC and UGA

  40. Projected Beef Cattle Profits in 2014 • Cow-calf • Stockers • Finishing Graphics source: CattleFax: Long-term Outlook. www.cattlefax.com

  41. Beef Cattle Summary • For 2013 expect lower production • Higher prices • Higher profits • More heifer retention

  42. Dairy situation and outlook

  43. What will drive prices in 2014? • Declining cow numbers • Strong demand for dairy exports • Favorable feed prices • Production abroad rebounds

  44. Georgia Milk Production Since 2000 During this time, milk production per cow increased from 16,500 to 19,200.

  45. Georgia Milk Mailbox Prices 2001-2014 (est.) 2014: $21.50 - $23.50

  46. Other Considerations • 2014 Farm Bill • Margin insurance • Tied to production controls?? • Still being debated in Congress

  47. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: Iowa State University

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