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Phase 3 to 4 Transition Assessment

Phase 3 to 4 Transition Assessment. D-+9. PH 0 Crisis. PH 1 Deter. PH 2 Seize The Initiative. PH 3 Dominate. PH 4 Stabilize. PH 5 Transition. MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO. SECURE APOD / SPOD. ESTB MEZ / AEZ. ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ. OFFENSIVE OPS. FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO.

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Phase 3 to 4 Transition Assessment

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  1. Phase 3 to 4 Transition Assessment D-+9 PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 TASK ASSESSMENT CNAVFOR Conduct Mar interdiction; enforce MEZ Conduct / support HA ops CJSOTF Enable Coalition Support Team for SR/DA CFACC Conduct ISR / Aerial monitoring of International border Conduct Intra-theater airlift Enforce AEZ CARFOR / CMARFOR / Defeat ARC forces in zone / Compel ARC forces withdrawal in zone / Re-establish International Border / Support HN restoration of essential services / Support IDP management on order CONDITION ASSESSMENT Decision Point 4: Transit to PH 4 1. ARC forces in KUH & FM have been defeated 2. ARC forces withdrawn from KUH & FM 3. Int’l border restored 4. Readiness of component forces for stabilization 5. Cross-border hostility has ceased Status of Assessment: Offensive actions are progressing on plan Issues remain: Increase in IDP Recommendation: Continue planning for transition to PH 4 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  2. Campaign Assessment 14 Feb 12

  3. MNF MISSION STATEMENT On order, MNF XCG 12 conducts peace enforcement operations to compel the Arcadian Forces to cease all military actions and withdraw from Kuhistan and Free Mojave; when conditions allow transition security operations to Royal Kuhistan Armed Forces, and Free Mojave National Army, and/or a UN authorized force in order to restore stability and security in Pacifica. Peace Enforcement /Security END STATES 1. Arcadia cease all military actions and withdraw in Kuhistan 3. Sonora does not support Arcadia military operations THREAT - Arcadian forces are withdrawn from Kuhistan and Free Mojave FRIENDLY - MNF has transitioned security operations To Royal Kuhistan Armed Forces and Free Mojave National Army and/ Or a UN authorized force; ENVIRONMENT - restore stability & security in Pacifica Region. 4. Indirect fire from Arcadia 2. Arcadia cease all military actions and withdraw in Free Mojava Governance 5. RKAF readiness for transition 6. FMNA readiness for transition 7. UN Mission readiness for transition Humanitarian Assistance 8. Civil Populace supports MNF PEO and Transition to HN and/or UN control MNF’s Legitimacy/Communication Integration 9. Maintain International Support. 10. Maintain Regional Support. Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  4. Campaign End State Status Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  5. Findings & Recommendations FINDINGS: RISKS: • FINDINGS: • UN Authorized Force readiness • NGOs & IHC supporting HA efforts • RISKS: • CMARFOR may be incapable of preventing civilian interference due to insufficient CA forces OPPORTUNITIES: RECOMMENDATIONS: • RECOMMENDATION: • Integrate KUH military forces for CMO in CMARFOR AO • Conduct PH IV activities where conditions permit • OPPORTUNITIES: • None to report

  6. TRANSITION ASSESSMENT DRILL DOWN

  7. Proposed MNF Mission Statement – Phase IV ON ORDER, MNF IS TO CONDUCT SECURITY AND STABILITY OPERATIONS THROUGHOUT KUH AND FM, RENDER SUPPORT TO HN RECOVERY EFFORTS AND SET THE CONDITIONS FOR A FOLLOW ON UN AUTHORIZED FORCE IN ORDER TO ENABLE A STABLE NORTHERN PACIFICA. Security END STATES Condition 1: Security in AO established / maintained - ARC forces are withdrawn to positions in Arcadia as determined by UNSCR 2000. - MNF has established stability in Kuhistan and Free Mojave. – The conditions are set for transition to a United Nations authorized force. Condition 2: Peace agreement has been established / signed Governance Condition 3: KUH and FM governments remain effective Humanitarian Assistance Condition 4: Govt/NGO postured for HA Ops MNF Legitimacy Condition 5: Strong support from government and populace Condition 6: International and regional support On Plan Partially On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  8. Condition 1 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  9. Condition 2 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  10. Condition 3 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  11. Condition 4 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  12. Condition 5 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  13. ASSESSMENT DRILL DOWN

  14. 15 41 101 90 84 5 82 80 Battle Damage Assessment Army Region 1 72% FLOT as of 12 Feb 2012 Kelowna Army Region 2 76% I II SF 32 321 Army Region 3 69% IdahoFalls X Boise 1 Pocatello X X X Artillery Command 70% 1 2 1 20 10 10 2 21 Salt Lake City Naval Command 80% Oakland Missile Command 60% LongBeach X X X X X X X X Aviation Command 78% 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 31 20 32 20 21 22 30 30 Capital City APOD SPOD Oil Field LOC FLOT Coastal Defense 20%

  15. MOE1.1 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  16. MOE1.2 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  17. MOE 2.1 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  18. MOE3.1 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  19. MOE 4.1 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  20. MOE 4.2 Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  21. Lines of Operations & Key Tasks

  22. CJSOTF Key Tasks (PH 3) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 NSWTG T1: Provide support to seizure of Kelowna via SR, DA, and UW P1: Degrade ARC IADS, C4ISR, and logistics P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in North KUH SOTF KUH T1: Conduct SR (TGO), DA, and limited UW P1: Degrade ARC IADS, C4ISR, and logistics P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in Central KUH SOTF FM T1: Conduct limited SR (TGO), DA, and limited UW P1: Degrade ARC IADS, C4ISR, and logistics P2: Enable conventional forces clearing in FM Supporting Efforts CJSOAD CPOTF Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  23. CJSOTF Key Tasks (PH 4) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 NSWTG T1: Conduct counter ARC SOF operations P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in KUH and FM T2: Enable DDR of UW forces P2: Support transition of UW forces to pre-conflict roles SOTF KUH T1: Conduct counter ARC SOF operations P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in KUH T2: Enable DDR of UW forces P2: Support transition of UW forces to pre-conflict roles SOTF FM T1: Conduct counter ARC SOF operations P1: Defeat Arcadian SOF in FM T2: Enable DDR of UW forces P2: Support transition of UW forces to pre-conflict roles Supporting Efforts: CJSOAD CPOTF Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  24. CFACC Key Tasks (PH 3) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT T1: Expand Air Superiority (AS) over KUH and FM P1: Enable MNF freedom of operations T2: Destroy ARC fielded forces P2: Attrit ARC fielded forces and force withdrawal SUPPORTING EFFORT: T1: Enforce AEZ / Support MEZ enforcement P1: Compel ARC withdrawal / isolate ARC T2: Conduct ISR P2: Find, Fix, Track and Target ARC forces T3: Intra-Theater airlift P3: Maintain resupply of MNF forces .. Supporting Efforts: DCA C2/ISR AI Air Refueling AEZ • Status of Assessment: • CFACC cannot attain strategic objectives under current ROE (ARC border crossing and engagement restrictions) On Plan Partially On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  25. CFACC Key Tasks (PH 4) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT T1: Maintain Air Superiority (AS) over KUH and FM P1: Enable MNF freedom of operations T2: ISR operations to monitor ARC forces P2: Ensure ARC forces withdrawal from KUH T3: Enforce AEZ P3: Deter ARC aggression SUPPORTING EFFORT: T1: Support MEZ enforcement P1: Deter ARC aggression T2: Intra-Theater Airlift P2: Sustain MNF forces / Support HA.. Supporting Efforts: DCA C2/ISR AI Air Refueling AEZ Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  26. CNAVFOR Key Tasks (PH 3) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+9 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Support aggressive IO plan Enforce MEZ Conduct amphibious assault Conduct offensive operations Conduct MIO Conduct/Support HA operations Seamless MNF partner integration • Status of Assessment: • MEZ is secure • MSA is secure • 31MEU is available as MNF reserve • Continue with robust ASW plan to defend against remaining ARC PTGs and SSs Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  27. CNAVFOR Key Tasks (PH 4) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 MAIN EFFORT Maintain security in AO Facilitate transition of KUH back to legitimate government Conduct/Support HA operations. Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  28. CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage A) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Continue collection on NAI Fires: Shape enemy forces in CMARFOR AO IO: Target enemy commanders with withdrawal options LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 (ME) CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  29. CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage B) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on NAI Fires: Shape enemy forces vic CMF Obj 3. IO: Continue to target enemy commanders options LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division USMC RCT-3 (ME) ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  30. CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3 – Stage C) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on NAI Fires: Provide DS fires to ME, Target (C2, BAGs, Armor) IO: Confirm MNF intentions to restore KUH borders LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division (ME) USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  31. CMARFOR Key Tasks (PH 4) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Collection on ARC Ph IV actions/intentions Fires: Provide on-call CAS/IDF as required IO: Confirm MNF intentions to restore KUH borders LOG:Provide CSS from CSSA Spokane FP: Continue AD/CAP coverage of SPOD & FOB Maneuver: RTMC Division (ME) USMC RCT-3 ROK RLT-7 MAG-36 CLR-3 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  32. CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3A) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Conduct ISR to id strategic & tactical EN assets Fires: Defeat enemy fire support FP: Patrol MSRs, insure FOM SUS: Establish LOCs and LSPs along MSR in AOR IO: Continue efforts to encourage ARC forces to W/D CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO to include forcible entry operations Task Force West (ME) T1: Defeat ARC forces vic Obj 1 T2: Fix ARC forces vic Obj 2 Task Force East (SE) T1: Defeat ARC forces vic Obj 3 T2: Fix ARC forces vic Obj 4 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  33. CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3B) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Identify EN disposition, detect movement of reserve Fires: Isolate OBJs 2, 4; fix ARC reserve Bde FP: MMS, AS, IR, L&O, PIO SUS: Extend LOCs; establish LSA to spt offensive ops IO: CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO Task Force West (ME) T1: Block ARC reserve forces north of OBJ 1 T2: Defeat ARC forces at OBJ 2 Task Force East (SE) T1: Block ARC reserve forces northeast of OBJ 3 T2: Defeat ARC forces at OBJ 4 Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  34. CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 3C) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Detect movement of reserve & IDPs Fires: Defeat EN fire support; Disrupt ARC attacks FP: MMS, AS, IR, L&O, PIO SUS: Provide CSS IO: Continue IO to encourage IDPs to remain in KUH CARFOR HQ (SE) T1: Conduct PEO Task Force West (ME) T1: Clear KUH territory to ARC border T2: O/O Defend KUH border Task Force East (SE) T1: Clear KUH territory to ARC border T2: O/O Defend KUH border Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

  35. CARFOR Key Tasks (PH 4) PH 0 Crisis PH 1 Deter PH 2 Seize The Initiative PH 3 Dominate PH 4 Stabilize PH 5 Transition D-+8 MAINTAIN SECUIRTY IN AO SECURE APOD / SPOD ESTB MEZ / AEZ ENFORCE AEZ / MEZ OFFENSIVE OPS FORCIBLE ENTRY INTO AO ESTB POLICY FOR TRANSFER OF AUTHORITY RE-ESTB INT’L BORDER STRATEGIC STRIKE DEPLOY MNF CONDUCT ISR COORD & CONDUCT CMO COUNTER SF / PSYOPS CUT ARC LOC 3 CONOPS: Intel: Identify remaining EN in KUH; monitor IDP movements Fires: Establish new FPOL along border FP: IR, L&O, MMS, AS, PIO SUS: Sustain the force; transition LOG to host nation IO: Increase support to Gov authorities in KUH and FM CARFOR HQ (ME) T1: Establishment of policy for transfer of authority Task Force West (SE) T1: Maintain presence in AO Task Force East (SE) T1: Maintain presence in AO Status of Assessment: 1. xxxxx 2. xxxxxx. 3. xxxxxx Achieved On Plan Off Plan Not Assessed

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