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Understanding Voter Decision Making: Influences and Turnout Trends

This document explores how voters form their opinions and make electoral choices in the United States. It examines factors influencing voter turnout, such as education, income, and race, highlighting trends from the 2004 and 2008 elections. It assesses voter knowledge about democracy and the political process, including awareness of the electoral system. Moreover, it delves into the importance of party identification, public evaluation of candidates, and the role of issues in shaping voter preferences. Ultimately, it questions whether presidents truly win mandates based on clear communication and voter understanding.

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Understanding Voter Decision Making: Influences and Turnout Trends

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Presentation Transcript

  1. How do voters make up their minds?

  2. Who Votes? • People who are registered • People with more education • People with more interest in politics • People with higher incomes • African-Americans (all other things equal)

  3. Turnout 2008

  4. Voter Turnout, 2004 & 2008

  5. Effect of education on turnout (2008)

  6. Effect of income on turnout, 2008

  7. Effect of race on turnout? (2008)

  8. Did race make a difference?

  9. Youth voter turnout

  10. The year of the youth vote?2004 and 2008 turnout rates

  11. Voters are Ignorant

  12. What do voters know? • the United States is a democracy (88%) • presidents serve 4 years (93%) • know that popular votes don’t elect the president (69%)

  13. What do voters know? • 99% can name the US president • 25% can name both of their US Senators • 29% can correctly name their representative in the House

  14. What do voters know? • 31% can describe affirmative action • 39% can locate Massachusetts on a map • 15% can say what the New Deal was • 20% could name a memorable political slogan

  15. How do voters decide? • Party ID/Ideology

  16. Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president

  17. How do voters decide? • Party ID/Ideology • Evaluations of the current president, current conditions, economy • Issues (opinions not otherwise guided by above) • The candidates’ personalities • Promises and policies

  18. Do voters really decide based on issues presented in the campaign? • Median Voter Theorem: • In a winner-take-all system, parties should promote policies that appeal to the voter at the median of the distribution of voter preferences. • In Presidential elections, ensures that candidates will gravitate toward the middle, and NOT try to distinguish their positions

  19. Do Presidents Win Mandates? • Only if: • Clear campaign positions • Voters know what their own positions are • Voters know what president’s positions are • President wins clear electoral victory

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