İstanbul, June 8th,2006 SOFI Turkey 2015First Evaluation Dr. Alper Alsan MP Turkey Node
SOFI Turkey • SOFI Turkey is being prepared by“Millenium Project – Turkey Node” • which is a branch of Futurists Association, Turkey. • Studies have been initiated in November, 2005. • First calculations include 8 variables. • 15 global challenges defined by MP have been considered.
Food Availablity Specified by UN MP Hyperbolic GDP per capita 2. Degree Polynomial Infant Mortality Best fit with Turkey data Logarithmic Water Access 2. Degree Polynomial Debt / GDP Logarithmic Forest Land Exponential Literacy Linear Unemployement Inverse SOFI Variables and Forecast Methods Forecast Method Reason Variables Specified by UN MP Best fit with Turkey data Specified by UN MP Specified by UN MP Specified by UN MP Best fit with Turkey data
SOFI Turkey 2005 • Past 3 years: A rapid recovery period from 2002 to 2005 (from -1 to 1) • Next 3 years: • Positive development continues • Past 10 years: 6 lost years between 1995-2001 • Next 10 years: • 2005 performance is doubled in 2015 (from 1,0 to 1,92)
Variables not used in SOFI Turkey Calculation in the 1st run Possible Impact on SOFI Turkey Variables with Poor Data Availability CO2 emission AIDS deaths Armed Conflicts Life Expectancy Freedom Poverty School Enrollment Access to Health - - No Impact Unknown Impact + + No Impact - - + + +