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CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director

Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography Center Command Overview – Presented to Committee Operational Processing Centers 4 May 2010. CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director. Fleet Numerical….

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CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director

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  1. Fleet Numerical Meteorology & Oceanography CenterCommand Overview – Presented toCommittee Operational Processing Centers4 May 2010 CAPT James Pettigrew Commanding Officer Mike Clancy Technical Director Fleet Numerical… Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…

  2. Outline • Introduction • Recent Accomplishments • Modeling Changes in Past Year • Support for NAEFS • HPC Systems • Model Performance Statistics • NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics • Upcoming Modeling Changes • Upcoming HPC System Changes • Overview and Status of MILCON Project • 50th Anniversary Celebration • Summary

  3. Introduction

  4. Operational Excellence The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology and oceanography (METOC) Fleet Safety Decision Superiority Information Assurance We are stakeholders and partners in National capability Key part of the Nation’s ocean & weather infrastructure Expect to be a major player in NUOPC Near-term goals (CNMOC) Tighter link between forecasts and decisions Predictive Oceanography We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community 4

  5. FNMOC Mission • We produce and deliver weather, ocean, and climate information for Fleet Safety, Warfighting Effectiveness, and National Defense. • Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is the core of our business. • Global and Regional Operational Models • Assimilate meteorological and oceanographic data worldwide • Scheduled and on-demand products • Specific to Fleet and Joint operations • 24x7 Operational Reachback Center • Supporting National, Navy, DoD/Joint, and Coalition missions • Direct Support for Global Submarine Weather • Data fusion for planning and operations

  6. Models Fleet Numerical operates a highly integrated and cohesive suite of global, regional and local state-of-the-art weather and ocean models: Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System (NAVDAS) Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) System Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) l~30 km Obs ~28 km Mountain Wave 15 km 60 m s-1 40 m s-1 10 km 5 km 20 m s-1 Sierra Owens Valley 0 m s-1 0 km Surface Pressure and CloudsPredicted by NOGAPS Cross section of temperature and wind speeds fromCOAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras

  7. Satellite Products SATFOCUS SSMI and SSMI/S Scatterometer Tropical Cyclone Web Page Target Area METOC (TAM) Tactically Enhanced Satellite Imagery (TESI) SSM/I Water Vapor SSM/I Wind Speed SATFOCUS Dust Enhancement Product Example SATFOCUS Products

  8. Models and Applications Ocean Acoustic Forecasting Aircraft Routing Automated High Seas / Wind Warnings Visibility/Dust Forecasts Aerosol Modeling Optimum Track Ship Routing Electro-Optical Forecasts NWP(NOGAPS, COAMPS) Search and Rescue Target Weapon Systems Ice Forecasts CEEMS Ensemble Models Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Long-Range Planning WRIP Ballistic Wind Computations

  9. Recent Accomplishments

  10. Recent Accomplishments Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42). Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS. Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble. Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3.

  11. Modeling Changes in the Past Year

  12. Modeling Changes in Past Year • NAVDAS • Local Area Coverage Winds • AVHRR, Rathera, Antarctica (May 2009) • NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009) • NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR(Sep 2009) • AIRS, AMSU-A, IASI, ASCAT, SSMI/S • NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009) • EFS • Banded ET (Feb 2010) • Reduced initial spread in ensemble generation • Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010) • Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010) • GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009) • WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009) • COAMPS • 60 Areas at 3 classification levels

  13. Support for NAEFS

  14. ISIS BFT5 BFTn Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC Delivery By (0610z) Avg Delivery (0559z) Average Files per Min: 321 Reliability: 51.6%

  15. ISIS BFT5 BFTn Success Rate for On-Time Delivery of NOGAPS Ensemble to NCEP for NAEFS/NUOPC Avg Delivery (1813z) Delivery By (1810z) • Average Files per Minute: 298 • Reliability: 29%

  16. FNMOC NAEFS Schedule • April 2010 – FNMOC delivers GRIB2 sample products for evaluation • May 2010 – FNMOC delivers “packed” ensemble products with 20 members out to TAU 384 • July 2010 – FNMOC delivers ensembles in GRIB2 with 74 variables • TBD – FNMOC integrates delivery (CAGIPS) hardware upgrades

  17. HPC Systems

  18. FNMOC HPC Systems UNCLAS SECRET UNCLAS and SECRET TS/SCI Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space. FS = File Server / Cross Domain ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System 18

  19. Items of Interest • Doubled NIPRNet and SIPRNet bandwidth • Acquired much larger DATMS trunks providing direct connection to AFWA, NAVO, and NOAA • Maintained all IA Accreditations • Became first Navy Command to pass a DISA Command Cyber Readiness Inspection (CCRI)

  20. Model Performance Statistics

  21. Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation System-Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR) NAVDAS-AR Effective 28 September Monthly Averaged NOGAPS SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height Anomaly Correlation by Year The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation

  22. Mar 2010 Vector 10m Wind RMS

  23. Mar 2010 Vector 850mb Wind RMS

  24. Mar 2010 500 mb Height AC

  25. Comparison of FNMOC Global WW3 Wave Heights with Altimeter Data for March 2010

  26. Verification of FNMOC/NCEP WW3 Multi-model Ensemble Against Altimetry Data

  27. NAVDAS-AOD Validation 1) Convert NAAPS mass concentration to aerosol optical depth 2) Two-D variational assimilation of the optical depth field 3) Convert optical depth to NAAPS three-D mass concentration (ill-posed; simple conditional scaling scheme used) r =.83 r =.69 NAAPS MODIS MODIS NAAPS AOD (no assimilation) NAAPS AOD (w/ assimilation)

  28. NAVDAS-AR Obs Impact Metrics

  29. Obs Impact by Instrument

  30. Obs Impact by Instrument

  31. Upcoming Modeling Changes

  32. Current Thinking on Navy Global NWP Fully support NUOPC Continue operational transition of most-promising near-term NOGAPS upgrades: 4DVAR (NAVDAS-AR) Semi-Lagrangian Continue exploring the possibility of running operational UKMO/UM based ensemble (NAVO/MSRC) Seek partnerships for development of a next-generation global NWP model for operational implementation at FNMOC ~ 2016-2018 Link to growing Navy interest in: (1) the arctic, (2) climate change, and (3) energy conservation

  33. Specific Plans • NOGAPS T319L42 (May 2010) • NAEFS • Expand variables to 73 (Jul 2010) • Receive in GRIB2 format (Jul 2010) • Expand variables to 80 (No schedule yet) • COAMPS-OS v2.2 with fully coupled COAMPS & NCOM (FY11) • Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) • 3D forecasts of temperature, salinity, currents, elevations • NCOM exchange of ocean surface fluxes with the COAMPS atmospheric boundary layer • Includes COAMPS v5 with Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) • COAMPS areas migrating to 45/15/5 km and 45 levels

  34. NHEM Anomaly Correlations for NOGAPS T239L42 (Red) andT319L42 (Black) 1000mb 500mb

  35. Upcoming HPC System Changes

  36. Upcoming HPC System Changes • Node Expansion: add 100 additional nodes for various A2 systems. • Enterprise Storage: Increase by approximately 90 TB. • Archive Tape Library: Acquire for high and low sides to provide A2 Backup and Heirarchical Storage Management • VMWare Implementation: Begin using VMWare nodes for ATOS2 and other non-MPI applications on A2 • A2 Infiniband Fabric Upgrade: Potential upgrade to increase speed of Infiniband backbone fabric. • Field and supporting the next generation of the Naval Oceanography Portal (NEP-O)

  37. Overview and Status of MILCON Project

  38. MILCON Project $9.3M 14351 sq ft expansion/renovation of FNMOC Building 700 (Computer Center Building) Adds 2500 sq ft to Computer Center for NPOESS IDPS Expands Ops Floor from 1550 to 3200 sq ft Expands SCIF Ops Floor from 1947 to 3012 sq ft Expands SCIF Computer Center from 875 to 2240 sq ft Expands Auditorium from 47 seats to 100 seats Schedule Design/Build Contract awarded Sep 2008 Groundbreaking May 27, 2009 MILCON project proceeding as scheduled. Exterior walls nearly complete. Phase I approximately 50% complete. MILCON completion scheduled for April 13th, 2011.

  39. FNMOC MILCON Project FNMOC Building 700 Computer Center

  40. We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in 2011. Will culminate with dedication of the MILCON Project in April of 2011.

  41. Summary Several of our recent accomplishments of COPC interest: Implemented 4DVAR atmospheric assimilation system (NAVDAS-AR) in conjunction with increased vertical levels in NOGAPS (T239L42). Implemented first global aerosol assimilation system in the world (NAVDAS-AOD) to improve forecasts via NAAPS. Upgraded the NOGAPS Ensemble with the Banded Ensemble Transform (ET) initialization to improve spread of initial ensemble. Implemented the coupled air-sea version of the GFDN tropical cyclone model Implemented wave height assimilation in our global wave forecast system WW3. We have embraced Linux-based HPC as we continue to build out our A2 cluster to accommodate the full range of our operational workload Along with ONR, NRL, CNMOC, and OPNAV N84 we are exploring the way-ahead for Navy Numerical Weather Prediction We intend to celebrate Fleet Numerical’s 50th Anniversary in 2011

  42. Questions?

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