Ecosystem Based Approaches to Fisheries Management: Making the CFP fit for the 21 st century

1. Ecosystem Based Approaches to Fisheries Management:Making the CFP fit for the 21st century Prof Chris Frid University of Liverpool, UK

2. EBFM • Regionalisation, • Stakeholder inclusion and • A wider science base • Perfect solutions

3. Ecosystem Based Approaches to Fisheries Management • Perspectives on fisheries • Fish and the ecosystem • Ecosystem Approaches • Those tried so far … • Do they meet the objectives? • Are there alternatives • Some thoughts on the way ahead

4. The meaning of fish…FOOD

5. The meaning of fish…PROFIT € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € € €

6. The meaning of fish… CONSERVATION

7. Conservation and Environmental Protection Species focus To habitat focus To Ecosystem focus (need habitat, food, breeding sites)

9. THREE PERSPECTIVES • FOOD SUPPLY • ECONOMIC ACTIVITY • SOCIAL VALUE – includes other aspects of the environment THREE PILLARS OF SUSTAINABILITY

10. Fisheries Developments • Fishing has a long history • Important for food supply – source of protein and ‘good’ fats • Economic and social importance

11. Fishing is an industry In the North Sea by 1900 fisheries already removed around 10% of the total standing stock of fish

12. Stock size Some North Sea stocks Data from ICES

13. Landings of Gadoids excluding Norway Pout and Blue Whiting from European Waters

14. The future of Europe’s fisheries?

15. In the beginning • There were lots of fish... • And they were LARGE

16. Fish and the ecosystem... • The fish are not alone • They need food to eat • They are eaten by predators • They defecate, die and are consumed by scavengers • The ecosystem is a system

17. International agreements • UN Rio Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992. • Agenda 21 – Sustainable development. • The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), provides the principle framework for international efforts to protect natural resources.

18. CBD Update I Targets was agreed at the most recent (2010) meeting of the CBD (www.cbd.int) included: • by 2020 all fish and invertebrate stocks and aquatic plants are • managed and harvested sustainably… • and applying ecosystem based approaches,… • recovery plans and measures are in place for all depleted species, • fisheries have no significant adverse impacts on threatened species and vulnerable ecosystems and the impacts of fisheries on stocks, species and ecosystems are within safe ecological limits;

19. CBD Update II • By 2020, at least …. 10% of coastal and marine areas, especially areas of particular importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, are conserved through effectively and equitably managed, ecologically representative and well connected systems of protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, and integrated into the wider landscapes and seascapes. • This protected area target is supported by multiple processes and by criteria agreed upon in 2008 for the selection of Ecologically and Biologically Significant Areas (EBSAs) that may be candidates for protection.

20. Responding to these • If we are to be assured of a healthy ecosystem we need to consider (manage for) the biological diversity, the functioning of the system and its spatial integrity • Can we manage ecosystems? No – we can not manage an ecosystem, BUT we can manage human activities and we can base this on our predictions about the ecosystem’s response to our activities.

21. The Science…. After 150 years surely we know much of this… At least to a first order approximation • How does an activity effect the system • What we do (Activity) • What effect does it have (Pressure) • What does the system become (State) • Activity – Pressure - State relationships

22. CFP Reform The 2002 reform of CFP set out a commitment • To manage European fisheries under an ecosystem based approach • To engage with stakeholders • To work regionally

23. What does an ecosystem approach look like?

24. A traditional Fisheries Scientist’s view of the ecosystem

25. A modern Fisheries Scientist’s view of the ecosystem Fish on fish predation

26. Ecological Scientist’s view of the ecosystem

27. The Challenges • Complexity • Ecological dynamics • Social – Economic Dimensions

28. A complex system – the weather

29. A complex system – the weather • Long data runs • Good understanding of physics • Decades of computation modeling • Massive data effort • Massive computing power

30. Predicting Complex Systems In 1998, the American Meteorological Society, (AMS) analyzed how well forecasters predict weather. They found: • Extended forecasts (beyond Day 14) show no skill. "No verifiable skill exists or is likely to exist for forecasting day-to-day weather changes beyond two weeks. Claims to the contrary should be viewed with skepticism.” • Long-term forecasts (Day 7 to 14) demonstratelittle skill. John Q Public could do as well simply checking what the long-term average weather is for that date. • Short-term forecasts (Days 1 to 7) are better.

31. Or to put it another way… http://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Forecast-Accuracy-Limitations#predictability

32. Predicting Ecosystems • For a single species considerable skill exists in short term predictions (i.e. ICES advice correct around 50-75% of time) • Multi-species advice is likely to be poorer • Ecosystem prediction is unlikely to be feasible in any but the broadest sense

33. Impact of commercial fisheries on non-commercial but ecologically valuable species • Sandeel fishery closures to protect kittiwake survival • Closed areas W of Ireland to protect deep-sea corals • Fishery closures to protect seamounts (adopted at NEAFC) • Fishery closures to protect Darwin Mounds • « Pingers » on static gear to protect marine mammals (etc.) Fisheries

34. A Fisheries Managers Perspective • « Ecosystem Management » depends heavily on understanding interaction effects. • Advice based on Interaction effects must be quantified. Stakeholders and Memer States have not generally accepted to manage on the basis of non-quantified interactions : no buy-in. • Zero is a workable number for the quantification of interaction ( -> specific closures). 100% is also a workable number ( -> Plaice and sole) • Description alone does not feed into management decisions. • Non-quantified interactions are unimplementable in operational advice. • Quantifying interactions for operational purposes is : • Data-hungry. May be model-specific. Likely to be contested. • An operational priority for multispecies management

35. AND.... Ecosystem management in fisheries management depends on robustly quantifying second-order effects. But for around 60% of stocks in EU waters the first-order, direct effects are not quantified : There are no assessment for 56 out of 95 TAC decisions in Atlantic waters nor for 50 out of 111 stocks in the Mediterranen and Black Seas.

36. So should we just pack up and go home?

37. The problem.. • We are committed to Ecosystem Based Approaches • The ecosystem is not ‘predictable’ • The current framework cannot deal with this – it requires ‘precise’ analytical solutions • So lets think of a new way…

38. So should we just pack up and go home? Lets go back to basics……. Fish are part of an ecosystem

39. Fisheries Ecosystem Plans • US Congress Ecosystem Principles Advisory Panel (EPAP 1999): • “should contain and implement a management framework to control harvests of marine resources on the basis of available information regarding the structure and function of the ecosystem in which the harvest occur.”

40. Marine Strategy Framework Directive The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC)1 (the Directive) requires: • Member States to determine Good Environmental Status (GES) for their marine waters, and • design and implement programmes of measures aimed at achieving it by 2020, using an ecosystem approach to marine management

41. GES Good Environmental Status is the central concept in the Directive. It is defined in the Directive as, “the environmental status of marine waters where these provide ecologically diverse and dynamic oceans and seas which are clean, healthy and productive within their intrinsic conditions, and the use of the marine environment is at a level that is sustainable, thus safeguarding the potential for uses and activities by current and future generations”.

42. The Challenge: Squaring A Circle • Having a sustainable industry • Getting sustainable food supply • Not damaging the functioning ecosystem

43. Making it operational Following the perceived success by industry and policy makers around the North Sea of the North Sea Fisheries Ecosystem Plan developed by the EFEP project, a follow up was commissioned to extend the approach to a wider area and to move to looking and the practical issues of implementation Making European Fisheries Ecosystems Plans Operational 27/08/2014 43

44. Complexity and uncertainty • Operational ecosystem models are unlikely to ever be a reality • A variety of models and ensembles of models can provide information about the response of the system or its components to human pressures and natural drivers • We MUST proceed based on the best available information but within an adaptive framework where management can adapt to new information

45. Regionalisation • Regionalised management, at appropriate ecosystem scales, implemented through appropriate institutional structures to facilitate stakeholder participation in management will potentially make a major contribution to the successful implementation of EBFM and the CFP reform. • The CFP reform proposals call for Member States (MS) to cooperate at regional level. However, the proposals do not go far enough in setting out how MS cooperation could be enhanced or greater stakeholder involvement achieved.

46. Regional Approach NWW NS SWW Regional Advisory Council Regions North Sea (NS), North Western Waters (NWW), South Western Waters (SWW).

47. Stakeholder inclusion • There is strong industry support for decentralised management structure with decision-making power devolved to Member States (MS) co-ordinated at the regional level, and supported by enhanced Regional Advisory Councils (RACs) with appropriate scientific support. • A more collaborative approach between MS, RACs and science to develop long term management plans (LTMPs).

48. A wider science base • It is not possible to meet the increase data requirements for EBFM using the data that are currently collected for the formal fishery advice process. • The absence of data must not be allowed to prevent decisions from being made and management advice should be formulated based on the best available evidence (BAE) (be it modelled, empirical or expert opinion), consistent with the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (FAO 2005) and the precautionary principle.

49. Perfect solutions Do not exist…

50. Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management • Can it be all things to all people? • Protect the ecosystem (Sustainable Environment) • Provide stable incomes (Sustainable Economics) • Support societal structures (Sustainable Societies) • YES • BUT – the transitions need to be managed more aggressively than is usually the case or the change will come too late to provide all the potential benefits