“The Future is Your Decision”

1. “The Future is Your Decision” CEO Forum Presented by ITR®Brian Beaulieu September 2011 brian@itreconomics.com www.itreconomics.com

2. The U.S. economy remains almost comatose. The current slump already ranks as the longest period of sustained weakness since the Great Depression. Once-in-a-lifetime dislocations will take years to work out. Among them: the job drought, the debt hangover, the defense-industry contraction, the banking collapse, the real estate depression, the health-care cost explosion and the runaway federal deficit. September 1992

3. US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic ProductYear-over-year Quarter to Quarter (3/12) -3.1% -5.3% -7.1% -14.6%

4. Recovery • Leading indicators pointing up • Liquidity is not an issue • Exports are up • Simulative monetary policy • Employment rising (companies right-sized) • Banks are lending • Normal seasonal rise in Retail Sales • $447 bils stimulus program

5. Recession in 2012 • Europe’s financial troubles might… • China’s housing/inflation bubble could… • International banking crisis becomes… • Oil prices could break through $120 … • USD could lose all credibility causing…

6. US Total Industrial Production Index2002 = 100, S.A. 3/12 12/12 12MMA 3MMA ITR Trends Report

7. Global Industrial Production Indices12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

8. US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change

9. US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

10. US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change

11. US Industrial Production to India Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change

12. US, Colorado, & Rocky Mountains Annual GSP Growth Rate

13. Unemployment Rates

14. Colorado 4thOpportunity Index Score: 66.6National Average: 50.9

15. 2010 Exports from Colorado to the WorldBillions of USD

16. Example: Revenue 12MMT 12MMT = 17.54 8.2%

17. RATE-OF-CHANGE ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/11 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 8/10 = 1/12 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/11 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 8/10 = 3/12 ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/11 ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 8/10 = 12/12

18. Colorado Construction Industry Employment Thousands of Units 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT

19. Denver Construction Industry Employment Thousands of Units 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT

20. Employment – Private SectorAnnual Data Trend ITR Trends Report

22. OMB’s 10-Year Deficit Projections(Baseline of Current Policy)Billions of Dollars

24. Unemployment Rate to Consumer Price Index Data Trends to Rates-of-Change

25. US Industrial Production Index2007 = 100Forecast Through December 2012Annual Average Index

26. Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates3MMA and 12MMA

27. Delinquency Rates for C&I Loans3/12 & 12/12 Rates-of-Change

28. Commercial & Industrial Loans at Commercial BanksRates-of-Change

29. Corporate Profits – 1st QuarterBillions of $ Source: BEA

30. US Industrial Production to Fabricated Metal Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

31. US Industrial Production to Plastics Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

32. US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

33. Retail Sales for Eating Places to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

34. US Industrial Production to Hotel & Motel Expenditures 12/12 Rates-of-Change

35. Trends 10 Wholesale Trade Retail Production Medical New Orders SoftLanding Prices Foreign Financial Housing Nonresidential Construction Hard Landing ITR Trends Report

36. Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o AircraftBillions of $ 3/12 12/12 12MMT 3MMT ITR Trends Report

37. Ratio of Inventories to New OrdersRaw Data

38. M2 Money SupplyTrillions of 82$ 12/12 3/12 3MMA 12MMA ITR Trends Report

39. Mortgage Rates to Federal FundsRaw Data

40. Crude Oil Futures PricesLight & Sweet $ per Barrel 12/12 3/12 12MMA 3MMA ITR Trends Report

41. Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Raw Data Trends

42. US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices12/12 Rates-of-Change ITR Trends Report

43. US Leading Indicator 1996 = 100 3/12 12/12 3MMA 12MMA ITR Trends Report

44. Purchasing Managers Index to US Industrial Production12/12 Rate-of-Change

45. Stock Prices Index S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10 12/12 3/12 3MMA 12MMA ITR Trends Report

46. Stock Prices Index Data Trends

47. Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$ 12/12 3/12 3MMT 12MMT ITR Trends Report

48. Personal SavingsBillions of $, Annual Data TrendSAAR

49. Retail Sales Excluding Autos to Building Materials & Supplies Dealers 12/12 Rates-of-Change

50. Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-Change