Community College Transfers in North Carolina: Examining Multiple Pathways to Student Success

1. Community College Transfers in North Carolina: Examining Multiple Pathways to Student Success Paul Umbach and Jeremy Tuchmayer North Carolina State University College Access Conference 2012 February 22, 2012

2. Plan for session • Background and context of the North Carolina Higher Education Research Consortium (NC-HERC) • Transfer student success in NC • If we have time, a brief discussion of financial aid work

3. Background and Context

4. Purposes of NC-HERC • To conduct sound research that informs policies and practices aimed at improving college student access and success in North Carolina • To connect researchers across the state who have an interest in college student success • To develop a long-term sustainable research agenda that informs policy in the state of North Carolina

5. General NC-HERC Activities • Conduct a comprehensive study of NC community college students who transfer to one of the UNC member institutions • Enlist an advisory board to help inform and guide the work of the consortium • Conduct a study of financial aid and student success at UNC

6. Who are we? • Ex officio Board Members • Karrie Dixon, UNC-GA • Jayne Fleener, NCSU • Bruce Mallette, UNC-GA • Van Wilson, NCCCS • Advisory Board • Charles Clotfelter, Duke • Lora Cohen-Vogel, UNC-Chapel Hill • Wanda Lester, NCA&T • Terri Manning, CPCC • Ontario Wooden, NCCU • NC-HERC Affiliates • Joy Gayles, NCSU • Steve Porter, NCSU • NC-HERC Team • Paul Umbach • Jeremy Tuchmayer • Kyle Verbosh

7. Transfer student success

8. Why transfers? Why now? • Comprehensive articulation agreement in place since 1996 with relatively minor revisions since • Recent (or maybe not so recent) increases in students who enroll in multiple institutions • No comprehensive study of NC college students that takes into account the complications related to research on transfer students

9. Things to consider when studying college student transfers • Variety of things complicate the study of transfers • We offer 4 Complicating Opportunities for Research Nerds (CORNs) • CORNs are things we’re attempting to address in our work, but they also put previous research into context

10. CORN #1: Selection bias • In what ways is a student who enrolls at a community college different than one who starts at a 4-year school? How might these differences affect research results? • Always an issue where there is no random assignment • We must account for the issue of selection bias in our research

11. CORN #2: Diverse enrollment patterns • What does it mean to be a transfer student? • Research suggests that a majority of students now attend more than one institution before earning a degree • Simultaneous enrollment, swirling, early colleges • Studies also show that students are taking longer to complete their degree

12. CORN #3: Diversity of students • Who are transfer students and what implications does that have for studying them? • Student diversity requires that we understand how transferring may differentially affect student groups traditionally underserved by higher education (e.g., first-generation college students, adult students, low-income students, students of color)

13. CORN #4: Diversity of outcomes • Does success mean the same thing for everyone? • Range of outcomes (GPA, persistence, time-to-degree, indebtedness), rather than rely on a single measure of success

14. Transfer student success research questions • What are the characteristics of students, community colleges, and 4-year institutions that are related to student success? To what extent do these characteristics differentially influence the success of traditionally underserved populations? • To what extent are there differences in the transfer and “native” student success? • To what extent are there differences in progress to degree and degree attainment of students who start at 4-year institutions vs. community colleges?

15. RQ1: What are the characteristics of students, community colleges, and 4-year institutions related to student success? • Analytical approach • Only examining transfers • Descriptive analyses • Cross-classified random effects model that allows us to explore characteristics of students, NC CCs, and UNC institutions along with factors that differentially affect student groups • Will define transfer variously (will guide other work) • Outcomes include GPA, persistence, credit accumulation, time-to-degree, indebtedness • Potential implications for policy and practice

16. RQ2: To what extent are there differences in the transfer and “native” student success? • Analytical approach • Descriptive analyses • Attempt to account for selection (Propensity score matching, IV) • Utilize variety of outcomes (e.g. persistence, degree completion, GPA) • Potential implications for policy and practice

17. RQ3: To what extent are there differences in progress to degree and degree attainment of students who start at the 4-year vs. community colleges? • Analytical approach • Replicate Bettinger & Long’s (2009) Ohio study • Attempt to account for selection (Propensity score matching, IV) • Utilize a variety of outcomes (e.g. persistence and degree completion) • Potential implications for policy and practice

18. Other potential avenues of inquiry • Course taking patterns and success • e.g., math and English sequences, remedial courses, ACA courses, other • Veteran students • Intersection of financial aid and transfer success • Scouring the literature (and the state) for best practices related to transfer student success

19. Financial aid and student success

20. Financial aid and student success • Income gap in degree attainment persists and some have suggested has widened in recent years • Know little about how financial aid programs and indebtedness affect college student degree progress • Recent research suggests that how student aid is packaged, along with changes in packages over a student’s academic career, affects the likelihood of stopout, re-enrollment, and degree attainment

21. RQ: How do variations in financial aid packaging relate to student success? • Use of survival analysis to analyze students and UNC institutions • Time varying effects (e.g., frontloading aid) of various aid packages on student success (e.g., stop-out, drop-out, degree attainment) • Explore how these effects vary across different student populations (e.g., first generation college students, students of color).

22. Pack Promise study (with affiliate Steve Porter) • Much of the work in this area relies on methods that do not effectively account for selection • Pack Promise seeks to reduce indebtedness of incoming freshmen who have a family income at or below 150% of the federal poverty level • Until this year, guaranteed debt level to not exceed $2500 annually

23. Veterans benefits study • To what extent does the variance in veteran’s educational benefits affect progress towards degree and degree completion? • Descriptive analyses • Regression analysis • Quasi-experimental study 1 - Progress toward degree of “native” versus transfer using PSM and IV • Quasi experimental study 2 - Veteran’s success vs. non-veteran’s using PSM to account for selection • Challenges (e.g. variations in policies, disentangling effects, lack of national data)

24. For additional questions or comments contact us at the following: Paul Umbach: paul_umbach@ncsu.edu Jeremy Tuchmayer: jeremy_tuchmayer@ncsu.edu