The french population at 1st january 2004

1. The french population at 1st january 2004 Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005

2. Yearly estimate method before 2004 • At the national level • At a local level (regions and departments)

3. At national level To add to the 1st january population • The natural increase • An estimate of the net migration P1 = P0 + Births – Deaths + Net Migration P0 : population at 1st january of the previous year P1 : population at 1st january We start from a population at 1st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census

4. To estimate the annual net migration • Four main streams • Arrivals and departures of foreign people • Arrivals and departures of french people • Annual informations only for foreign born migrants (OMI, OFPRA, Home Office) • For other streams, an estimate based on trends, thanks to a simple model

5. At a local level(regions and departments) A method using administrative data bases (local tax, family benefits, electricity, elections). It yields population estimates by department and regions • The total is the national estimate • These estimates are produced by sex and age • They are disseminated with a 18 months delay : spring n+1 for populations at the 1st january n

6. Comparison census - estimate after each census • Comparison of 2 figures : • estimate au 1st january of the census year • Census population, counted at the 1st january • Before 1999, the census population was always kept as the population • If the census population is different from the population estimate, we can think that the net migration estimate is wrong. But the gap between the 2 figures can also come from comparability problems between the 2 censuses.

7. Retropolation When the census results are known, populations for the years between the censuses are updated : • Populations by sex, age and marital status at the 1st january of each year, at national and local levels • With these new data, demographic ratios (TFR, life expectancy) are updated fot the intercensal period.

8. Analyse after the 1999 census (1) • The census population (counted at the 1st january) was under the estimate based on the previous census by 480000 inhabitants. • The net migration estimate was not changed. • The gap was a attributed to a comparability problem between censuses. • To keep an equality, an adjustment was introduced.

9. Analyse after the 1999 census (2)

10. National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results) Before taking in account the 2004 collection for the rolling census • Each year from 2000, Insee published a population estimate at the 1st january, based on the 1999 census. • For 2004, this estimate was published in february 2004, in the « bilan démographique 2003 ».

11. National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)

12. In the beginning of 2005, 2004 census results

13. Incertainties of the estimate based on the 1999 census • Natural increase : good • Net migration : under-estimation • Omission of a part of foreign migrants since 1998, because of changes of classification in the administrative annual data. • temporary data for 2003

14. How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data • From the 1999 census, to estimate surviving foreign born living in France without migration • To estimate a net migration by difference • To compare with new immigrants (arrived since 1999)

15. How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data

16. Incertainties on the census population of 2004 • Sampling error • Change in counting students • Censoring institutionnal households • Homeless people • Problems of quality of the address file, in the bigger municipalities • Checking the double counts

17. Decision

18. How many are we ?

19. Revisiting the demographic evolution

20. Including the overseas departments France had 62,0 millions of inhabitants at 1st january 2004 • 60,2 millions in continental departments • 1,8 million in overseas departments

21. At the regional level Comparison between : • regional estimates at the 1st january 2004, obtained from 2003 estimates, by using administrative records • 2004 census results

22. Decision

23. Regions populations

24. Later In the beginning of 2006, a new comparison will be done between : • 2005 estimate, published in february 2005 in « Bilan démographique 2004 » • 2005 census population. If the census population is once more higher than estimated, it could be decided to set a new estimate for 2005, more close to the census population, and we shall have a new adjustment.