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Prediction of Supersymmetric Spectra in the CMSSM and NUHM1 with Frequentist Analysis. Henning Flaecher CERN. in collaboration with: O. Buchmueller , R. Cavanaugh, A. De Roeck , J. Ellis, S. Heinemeyer , G. Isidori , K. Olive, P. Paradisi , F. Ronga , G. Weiglein. Introduction.
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Prediction of Supersymmetric Spectra in the CMSSM and NUHM1 with Frequentist Analysis Henning Flaecher CERN in collaboration with: O. Buchmueller, R. Cavanaugh, A. De Roeck, J. Ellis, S. Heinemeyer, G. Isidori, K. Olive, P. Paradisi, F. Ronga, G. Weiglein
Introduction • How can we best exploit the available experimental data to constrain New Physics models? • Combine as much experimental information as possible • Famous example: • Standard Model fit to electroweak precision data • Extend it to include physics beyond the Standard Model • Here: Minimal SuperSymmetic Standard Model (MSSM) • Necessary tools: • calculations for experimental observables in that model and • a common framework that interfaces between the different calculations and combines the obtained information • Objectives/Outcome: • Fit model parameters in some MSSM scenarios • Explore sensitivity of different observables to parameter space SUSY09, Boston
Constraining MSSM parameter space • What observables can be used to constrain the model? • Low energy (precision) data • Flavour physics (many constraints from B physics) • Other low energy observables, e.g. g-2 • High energy (precision) data • Precision electroweak observables, e.g. MW, mtop, asymmetries • Cosmology and Astroparticle data • e.g. relic density • How to exploit this information? • State of the art theoretical predictions (tools) • Development of a framework for combination of these tools • Collaboration between experiment and theory See O. Buchmüller et al., PLB 657/1-3 pp.87-94 and JHEP 0809:117,2008 SUSY09, Boston
Common framework development • General overview: • Consistency • Relies on SLHA interface • Modularity • Compare calculations • Add/remove predictions • State-of-the-art calculations • Direct use of code from experts SUSY09, Boston
Common framework applications • Use case: • Fit today’s data (2-minimisation) • Constrain SUSY parameter space • Will become even more interesting when combined with discoveries • Various modes: • Overall best minimum (MINUIT) • 2 scans • Markov-Chain Monte Carlo for parameter space sampling SUSY09, Boston
List of implemented observables SUSY09, Boston
Example Application • Constraining the parameter space of theCMSSM • multi-parameter 2 “fit” See O. Buchmüller et al. PLB 657/1-3 pp.87-94 Non Universal Higgs Model1: one extra free parameter scalar contributions to Higgs masses at GUT scale allowed to differ from those to squark and slepton masses SUSY09, Boston
CMSSM • Sampling of parameter space with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo type technique • Full sampling of parameter space (~25M points) • only observe 1 minimum at M0 ~ 70 GeV, M1/2 ~ 320 GeV • No preference for Focus Point region results still preliminary Δχ2 M0 Best fit point: M0 = 65 GeV M1/2 = 320 GeV A0 = 113 GeV tanβ= 11.2 M1/2 SUSY09, Boston
Prospects for finding CMSSM at LHC “LHC Weather Forecast” JHEP 0809:117,2008 O.Buchmueller, R.Cavanaugh, A.De Roeck,J.R.Ellis, H.F., S.Heinemeyer,G.Isidori, K.A.Olive, P.Paradisi, F.J.Ronga, G.Weiglein Simultaneous fit of CMSSM parameters m0, m1/2, A0, tan (>0) to more than 30 collider and cosmology data (e.g. MW, Mtop, g-2, BR(BX), relic density) “CMSSM fit clearly favors low-mass SUSY – A signal might show up very early?!” SUSY09, Boston
Particle Masses: CMSSM • Extensive sampling allows to take a look at particle spectra • LEP Higgs constraint not included • M1/2 controls gluino, chargino, neutralino masses • also for squarks (M0 < M1/2) • Favouredgluino mass around 650 GeV • Lightest squark around 500 GeV Δχ2 χ1+ χ10 bsγ g-2 (disfavours large m12) Δχ2 ~ g ~ preliminary t1 SUSY09, Boston
Particle Masses: CMSSM • Extensive sampling allows to take a look at particle spectra • LEP Higgs constraint not included • M1/2 controls gluino, chargino, neutralino masses • also for squarks (M0 < M12) • Favouredgluino mass around 650 GeV • Lightest squark around 500 GeV Δχ2 χ1+ χ10 with LEP Higgs constraint Δχ2 ~ g ~ preliminary t1 SUSY09, Boston
NUHM1 • Work in progress • preliminary sampling of parameter space • 25M points • up to tanβ≤ 45 • Observe clear minimum structure • again, only one minimum results still preliminary M0 Best fit point: M0 = 170 GeV M1/2 = 260 GeV A0 = -1330 GeV tanβ= 12.2 mH2 = -1313044 GeV2 M1/2 SUSY09, Boston
What about beyond CMSSM? – NUHM1 “LHC Weather Forecast” JHEP 0809:117,2008 O.Buchmueller, R.Cavanaugh, A.De Roeck,J.R.Ellis, H.F., S.Heinemeyer,G.Isidori, K.A.Olive, P.Paradisi, F.J.Ronga, G.Weiglein Non Universal Higgs Model1: - one extra free parameter scalar contributions to Higgs masses at GUT scale allowed to differ from those to squark and slepton masses NUHM1 Simultaneous fit of NUHM1 parameters m0, m1/2, A0, tan, mH2 and to more than 30 collider and cosmology data (e.g. MW, Mtop, g-2, BR(BX), relic density) NUHM1 fit also favours low-mass SUSY SUSY09, Boston
Particle Masses: NUHM1 • Non Universal Higgs Model1: • Minima at similar masses as in CMSSM • well within LHC reach • not as tightly constrained towards higher masses Δχ2 χ10 χ1+ χ10 Δχ2 ~ g ~ ~ g t1 preliminary SUSY09, Boston
Lightest Higgs Constraint • Likelihood profile for lightest Higgs mass • CMSSM: Lightest Higgs just below LEP bound but much tighter constrained than SM Higgs • NUHM1: preferred Higgs mass at ~120 GeV naturally above LEP limit but less constrained towards lower masses CMSSM NUHM1 SUSY09, Boston
Dark Matter Constraints: CMSSM • Comparison of direct searches with collider searches pSI: spin-independent dark matter - WIMP elastic scattering cross section on a free proton. with without Higgs constraint preliminary Example how combination of direct and indirect measurements can provide information about validity of specific new physics models SUSY09, Boston
Dark Matter constraint: NUHM1 • Cross-section and mass not quite as well constrained pSI: spin-independent dark matter - WIMP elastic scattering cross section on a free proton. χ10 preliminary σpSI SUSY09, Boston
CMSSM vs NUHM1 • Limits on neutralino mass once real data is available • exploit correlation between neutralino mass and M1/2 • Discovery/Exclusion in M1/2 can be translated into neutralino mass reach NUHM1 NUHM1 CMSSM SUSY09, Boston
Conclusions • For comprehensive interpretation of LHC data it is necessary to check for consistency with all available experimental data • Efforts to combine… • various sets of experimental constraints • in different models • and in different ways …are ongoing • Investigate simple models: • CMSSM: provides Higgs mass compatible with LEP limit but much better constraint • would be discoverable at the early stages of the LHC (1fb-1) • NUHM1: preferred Higgs value above LEP limit but less constrained towards lower value • Early LHC data will probe these models! SUSY09, Boston
BACKUP SUSY09, Boston
Omega CMSSM: Prediction for Omega h2 from all other constraints SUSY09, Boston