1. Drought: Science, monitoring, and early warning Roger S. Pulwarty National Integrated Drought Information System Climate and Societal Interactions Division NOAA State and Tribal Partners, Municipalities Dept. Interior, USDA, USACE, State Climatologists, NDMC

2. Drought: a weather-climate continuum 30DAYS 1SEASON Heat Waves Floods Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation++++++ Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 3YEARS 10YEARS 30YEARS 100YEARS SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY 2

3. NIDIS Act (Public Law 109-430, 2006) “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” Provide effective drought early warning system(s): key indicators of drought severity and impacts; timely information that reflect local, regional, and State differences; Coordinate and integrate as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships

4. NIDIS Partnerships (Federal, States, Tribes, Private) Drought ImpactsAssessments and Scenarios Monitoring & Forecasting Drought Early Warning Information Systems Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation Communication and Outreach

5. Monitoring and Forecasts Global monitoring-Understanding how decadal variability (PDO, AMO) in different ocean basins impact year to year droughts-influences forecast reliability on seasonal to interranual timescales Improved satellite estimates and in situ measurements of soil moisture and developing a coordinated soil moisture network Estimates of Ground water/surface water interactions during drought especially affecting streamflow and river forecasts Ongoing assessment of the underlying predictability of surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow affected by climate, land-use and demands on monthly to decadal time scales Analysis of significant past events

6. Informing Decisions National Governors Association Meeting 24-27 February, 2013: “making sure science is on the table when decisions are made”(J. Lubchenco) September 2013

7. Principal Elements of a Drought Risk Management Framework

8. Thank you.

9. Backups

10. Drought differs from other natural hazards • slow onset, “creeping phenomenon”, a non-event difficult to determine drought onset and end- absence of a precise, universal definition • impacts are nonstructural and spread over large areas—makes assessment and response difficult- defined by multiple indicators • impacts are complex, affect many people, and vary on spatial and temporal timescales, multiple and migrating epicenters- no consistent methodology for assessing impacts or data base for archiving impacts • water shortages increase conflict—regulatory, • legal authority (interstate and transboundary issues) “ A persistent abnormal moisture deficiency having adverse impacts on vegetation, animals, and people.”and…… more……

11. Climate risk management-governance Accountability-CRM needs to be located with planning oversight and some fiscal responsibility-provide political authority and policy coherence across sectors. Emergency management organizations can rarely play that role Efficiency-only occurs when CRM is carried out in partnership with at-risk sectors and communities and organizations that represent them. Benefits are cost-effectiveness, sustainability, citizenship and social cohesion.

12. Key questions-improving the linkages between information and decision-making (ICSU others): • What is the quality of information available to decision-makers at all levels? • What factors influence whether or not such information will be used? • What factors influence whether risk communications are trusted? • What governance structures may facilitate better decision-making practice? • How can decision-making systems be adapted to the different levels of decision makers?

13. Where do science and decision-making speak to each other? Monitoring & Research Innovation Evaluation Learning

14. Partnership-a collaborative framework between research and management Knowledge development and management Capacity and coordination Product and delivery systems Network development and sustainability Identify local entrepreneurs/leadership Make risks and benefits transparent Conduct post-audits

15. Key Indicators For Monitoring Drought • climate data (precipitation, temperature) • soil moisture • stream flow • ground water • reservoir and lake levels • snow pack • short, medium, and long range forecasts • vegetation health/stress and fire danger