Causal Reasoning

1. Causal Reasoning • Observation • Large text on my Internet screen • Question • Why the large text? • Hypothesis • Accessibility features are activated • Evidence • Normal ways of adjustment don’t work.

2. Testing Causal Reasoning • Does hypothesis account for event? • Account for all relevant elements • Suggest a causal agent • Has analogous hypothesis been shown to be accurate? • Is there a better hypothesis?

3. Causal Analogy • Observation • Some got sick at picnic, but not others. • Question • Why did some get sick? • Hypothesis • The potato salad was bad. • Evidence • The sick ones ate the potato salad.

4. Testing Causal Analogy • Are the cases reported accurately? • Does hypothesis account for event? • Account for all relevant elements • Suggest a causal agent • Is there a better contrast available? • Is there a better counter-analogy?

5. Causal Generalization • Sample of population • Suspected cause applied to one group. • Cause withheld from control group. • Does cause correlate with effect? • Is the significance beyond coincidence? • Could a cause produce both effects? • Does cause consistently precede effect? • Does cause have a plausible agent?

6. Exercise A1 • Observation • Birds observed before crash of bomber. • Question • What caused crash? • Hypothesis • Birds were sucked into engines • Evidence • This was the first crash of the new model. • Evaluation: Causal agent is clear and analogous examples exist.

7. Exercise A3 • Observation • Increase in literacy, standard of living, economy, and health. • Question • What caused these increases? • Hypothesis • Increase in population caused them. • Evidence: • Minds working together solve problems • Evaluation: Other plausible agents exist. How about other populous countries?

8. Exercise A5 • Observation • Dan White killed Mosconni and Milk. • Question • Why did he kill them? • Hypothesis • Junk foods made White go into frenzy. [He was not responsible for killings.] • Evidence: • His urge for junk foods was uncontrollable. • Evaluation: Is agent sufficient? Has it happened before?

9. Exercise B1 • Causal hypothesis: • An angel on the TV screen • An electronic phenomenon • Tests: • Ask others if they see an angel • Try to duplicate the image mechanically.

10. Exercise B3 • Causal hypothesis: • Americans are less fascinated with small cars. • Americans cars have improved in quality. • Tests: • See whether Americans are buying a higher percent of medium-sized cars. • See whether economic factors exist.

11. Exercise D1 • Cause: • Internship program at Mills University • Effect: • Mills students are more employable.

12. Exercise D3 • Cause: • American health care system is more expensive than the Canadian system. • Effect: • Lower-income Americans visit doctors and hospitals less than lower-income Canadians.

13. Exercise E1 • Observation: • Drop in production of goods • Enumerated causes: • Lazy blue-collar workers • Government regulations • New white-collar jobs (conclusion) • Other plausible causes? • Out-sourcing to other countries

14. Exercise F1 • Generalization: • Gun ownership can reduce crime. • Cause: • Fear of confronting victim with a gun • Effect: • Reduced crime when victims might have guns • Evaluation: • Are criminals telling the truth? • Is effect significant?

15. Exercise F3 • Generalization: • Lighting can control hyperactivity. • Cause: • Switch to incandescent lighting • Effect: • Reduced hyperactivity • Evaluation: • Small size of the sample • Lack of control group • Unexplained agent • Lack of consistent results

16. Exercise F5 • Generalization: • Gun training programs reduce crime. • Cause: • Training in the use of guns • Effect: • Reduced incidence of rape and robbery • Evaluation: • No control group (other possible causes?) • Were citizens of Kennesaw trained?