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Validation and Sensitivity Testing of the Metropolitan Council Phase I Minneapolis-St. Paul Socioeconomic Land Use Fo

Validation and Sensitivity Testing of the Metropolitan Council Phase I Minneapolis-St. Paul Socioeconomic Land Use Forecasting Model. Colby Brown, AICP PTP Dennis Farmer, AICP May 9, 2012. The Twin Cities Metro Region.

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Validation and Sensitivity Testing of the Metropolitan Council Phase I Minneapolis-St. Paul Socioeconomic Land Use Fo

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  1. Validation and Sensitivity Testing of the Metropolitan Council Phase I Minneapolis-St. Paul Socioeconomic Land Use Forecasting Model Colby Brown, AICP PTP Dennis Farmer, AICP May 9, 2012
  2. The Twin Cities Metro Region The Metropolitan Council is the regional planning agency serving the seven-county Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St. Paul) metropolitan area operates the region's largest transit system collects and treats wastewater engages communities and the public in planning for future growth provides affordable housing opportunities for low- and moderate-income individuals and families provides planning, acquisitions and funding for a regional system of parks and trails provides a framework for decisions and implementation for regional systems including aviation, transportation, parks and open space, water quality and water management. provides forecasts of the region's population and household growth 2010 Population: 2,849,567
  3. Overview of Model Architecture
  4. Data Flows Between Sub-Models Cube Land predicts real estate development and allocates total regional jobs by industry and households by type to TAZs in the region Congested Accessibility Regional Economic Model Total Jobs by Industry Cube Land Cube Voyager Regional Demographic Model Total Households by Type Job & Household Locations
  5. Residential Validation Results Population by TAZ Households by TAZ Correlation by Income
  6. Non-Residential Validation Results Strong model correlation with reality
  7. Purpose of Sensitivity Testing Ensure that the model responds in a reasonable manner to changes in inputs Evaluate a variety of hypothetical (and sometimes extreme/unrealistic) scenarios 3 transportation tests, 3 land-use policy tests All tests are “counterfactual” 2010 runs to facilitate comparison with validation
  8. Preliminary Phase I Sensitivity Tests Transportation scenarios were generally more successful than land-use policy scenarios Phase II now underway to improve results
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