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Shell Gas LPG (Pakistan) Limited. Growing Energy Gap. Case 1(Worst case): 4% GDP growth projections Case II(Best case): 5.8% GDP growth projections. Conversion Rate For TOE to LPG MT = TOE*1.08.
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Growing Energy Gap Case 1(Worst case): 4% GDP growth projections Case II(Best case): 5.8% GDP growth projections Conversion Rate For TOE to LPG MT = TOE*1.08 • Forecasts prepared by Petroleum Industry of Pakistan (PIP) for the oil marketing & producing companies
Domestic Packed : Demand • Number of households = 24 Million • LPG penetration = 7% • Current estimated segment volume = 160 Kt/annum 2007 The shaded spots represent 80%+ of current genuine domestic volume Approx. 6K POS (FMCG POS Universe 200K+) • Impact of increasing penetration by 1% : 24K ! (4% Of LPG industry Volume) • Impact of increasing per capita consumption by 1 kg/month : 21K ! • Current per month usage = 8 Kg Coverage : key for domestic business development
Commercial Potential • Current estimated commercial volume is 100K Mt/annum • Main segments include; • Hotels Bakery • Restaurants Sweets • Metal cutting Catering Available Potential: • Currently these applications are using wood & coal • To make the conversions conservative, 100% dry coal usage has been assumed
Issues & Challenges • Cross- Filling • Decanting • Pricing caps & Subsidies • Penetration into rural areas • Inland freight infrastructure