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Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development

Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development. Presented to the Helena Education Foundation Leadership Institute. Patrick Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems August 13, 2007. Global Competition. 39.9. 39.5. 39.2. 37.3.

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Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development

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  1. Drilling Down: Global, National, State, and Local Challenges to Workforce Development Presented to the Helena Education Foundation Leadership Institute Patrick Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems August 13, 2007

  2. Global Competition

  3. 39.9 39.5 39.2 37.3 36.9 37.0 36.2 35.4 Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Montana, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 60 53.8 53.2 51.0 49.5 50 46.6 42.5 40.9 40.6 40.6 39.8 39.7 39.3 38.5 40 36.4 35.6 35.1 34.8 33.4 32.0 30.4 30.2 29.9 30 27.3 26.9 24.5 24.0 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 18.5 20 17.6 16.7 15.5 14.5 10.0 10 0 Canada Japan Korea Norway Ireland Belgium Denmark Spain France United Montana States Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), 2006 American Community Survey

  4. United States % OECD Counties 54 Canada 53 Japan Massachusetts 52 51 Korea 50 Israel Minnesota 49 New York 48 New Jersey – North Dakota 47 Connecticut – Nebraska – New Hampshire 45 Colorado – Maryland – South Dakota – Virginia 44 Iowa – Vermont 43 Illinois – Pennsylvania – Rhode Island 42 Washington – Wisconsin 41 Norway • Ireland • Belgium 40 Denmark • Spain Kansas – Utah 39 France • UNITED STATES Delaware 38 Australia • Finland Georgia – Hawaii – Maine – Michigan – MONTANA– North Carolina - Ohio 37 Sweden • Luxembourg California – Florida – Oregon 36 Iceland Missouri 35 Netherlands • United Kingdom Indiana 34 Russian Federation Mississippi 33 Estonia Alabama – Alaska – Arizona – South Carolina – Tennessee – Wyoming 32 Kentucky – Oklahoma – Texas 31 Switzerland • New Zealand Idaho – Louisiana – West Virginia 30 New Mexico 28 Arkansas 27 Nevada 26 Poland 25 Greece 24 23 22 Germany 20 Austria • Hungary 19 Portugal 18 Mexico • Chile 17 16 Slovak Republic • Italy 15 14 Czech Republic 12 Turkey 10 Slovenia 8 Brazil Percent of Adults Age 25-34 with College Degrees (Associate and Higher), 2005 Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), 2006 American Community Survey

  5. Percent of Adults with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher by Age Group—Montana, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries Source:Education at a Glance 2007, Organisation for Economic Co-operation (OECD), 2006 American Community Survey

  6. Mean Score in Student Performance on the OECD PISA Mathematics Scale, 2003 Source: OECD PISA 2003 database

  7. CHINA 59% S. KOREA 46% EU 36% US 29% United States Comparative Innovation Capacity—Science, Math, and Engineering Degree Production The U.S. is producing a smaller share of degrees in science, math, and engineering than other nations. Science, math and engineering degrees as a share of all degrees awarded Source: National Science Foundation, 2001; U.S. Department of Education, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, 2004

  8. Projected Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity and Age from 2005 to 2025 - United States (in Thousands) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections

  9. Growth in High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity – United States White African-American Hispanic Native American Asian/PI Actual Projected Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door 2008

  10. Montana

  11. Educational Attainment and Personal Income $50,000 1980 $43,000 $36,000 AK Personal Income Per Capita CT $29,000 CA NV WY NJ HI MD NY IL CO WA DE MA MN VA US OR PA MI OH WI KS FL NH RI TX IA AZ OK IN MO $22,000 NE MT LA VT UT ID GA ME NM TN NC WV Correlation = 0.64 KY SD ND AL SC AR MS $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

  12. Educational Attainment and Personal Income $50,000 1990 $43,000 CT NJ $36,000 NY MA Personal Income Per Capita MD AK HI CA DE IL NH VA NV MN RI WA CO PA FL $29,000 US OH MI KS WI WY NE OR VT MO GA IN IA ME NC AZ TX TN OK SD ND SC AL ID MT KY LA UT NM $22,000 WV AR MS Correlation = 0.76 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

  13. Educational Attainment and Personal Income $50,000 2000 CT NJ $43,000 MA NY MD CO NH CA MN IL $36,000 WA VA DE NV Personal Income Per Capita AK US PA RI MI FL WY WI HI OH OR GA TX KS VT NE MO IN NC IA ME TN SD $29,000 AZ ND SC OK KY UT ID AL LA MT NM WV AR MS $22,000 Correlation = 0.80 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

  14. Educational Attainment and Personal Income $50,000 2005 CT NJ MA $43,000 MD NY NH CO MN VA WY DE CA IL $36,000 NV AK WA RI PA US HI Personal Income Per Capita FL WI NE KS VT SD OR MI TX OH IA ND MO IN NC GA ME TN AZ OK AL $29,000 MT SC ID KY NM UT AR WV MS LA $22,000 Correlation = 0.83 $15,000 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

  15. Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Montana, 2006 (Percent) 81.8% 92.6% 9.2% 29.4% 8.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

  16. Reaching Top Performance in Adults with College Degrees by 2025 (55%)–Montana 276,481 85,890 190,891 139,180 -21,075 72,786 3,639 52.3% Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%) Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025) Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration Additional Degrees Needed Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 6,959 in All Sectors) Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)

  17. Educational Attainment in Montana (Percent) Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best-Performing Countries in 2025

  18. How Can Montana Reach International Competitiveness? Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production Additional Degrees from Population Growth Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Source: NCES, CCD and IPEDS; 2006 American Community Survey

  19. Projected Change in Montana Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006-25 (in Thousands) 123,837 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  20. Difference in High School Attainment Between Whites and Minorities* - 25 to 64 Year Olds (2006) Vermont * Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (Public Use Microdata Samples)

  21. Difference in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Whites and Minorities* - 25 to 64 Year Olds (2006) Vermont * Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (Public Use Microdata Samples)

  22. Of 100 9th Graders, How Many… Student Pipeline, 2004 Source: NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

  23. High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

  24. Montana Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity, 1991-92 to 2001-2022 (Projected) Actual Projected Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), 2007

  25. College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004 Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

  26. Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two­Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  27. Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four­Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent) Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

  28. Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

  29. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

  30. Enrollment in State-Administered ABE Programs per 1,000 Adults Age 18-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Education; U.S. Census Bureau, ACS

  31. Enrollment in ESL per 1,000 Adults Age 18-64 with Little or No English Proficiency, 2006 Source: U.S. Department of Education; U.S. Census Bureau, ACS

  32. GEDs Awarded to 18 to 39 Year Olds per 1,000 18 to 39 Year Olds with No High School Diploma by State (2006) Sources: ACE, GED Testing Service; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

  33. Percent of All GEDs Awarded to High School Aged Students – 16 to 18 Year Olds (2006) 2nd Highest % in the U.S. Sources: ACE, GED Testing Service

  34. 45% 40.1% 30% 24.1% 23.2% 22.0% 19.8% 18.6% 17.7% 17.0% 16.9% 16.7% 16.1% 15.1% 15.0% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.5% 14.5% 14.4% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9% 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.0% 12.9% 12.8% 15% 12.2% 12.0% 12.0% 11.4% 11.1% 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 10.7% 10.7% 10.6% 10.5% 10.5% 9.7% 9.6% 9.6% 9.1% 9.0% 8.6% 8.5% 7.6% 7.5% 0% Utah Iowa Ohio Idaho Texas Maine Alaska Illinois Florida Hawaii Kansas Oregon Indiana Nevada Arizona Georgia Virginia Vermont Missouri Montana Alabama Colorado Arkansas Nebraska Michigan Delaware Maryland Kentucky Louisiana Wyoming California Oklahoma Tennessee New York Minnesota Wisconsin Mississippi New Jersey Washington Connecticut New Mexico Rhode Island Pennsylvania United States North Dakota South Dakota West Virginia Massachusetts North Carolina South Carolina New Hampshire Enrollment of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percentage of 25 to 49 Year Olds with a High School Diploma But No College (2005) Sources: NCES, IPEDS Enrollment Survey; US Census Bureau 2005 ACS data

  35. Percent of Total Gross Domestic Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  36. Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce—By Education Attainment, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

  37. Projected Growth (%) in Occupations Requiring at Least Some Postsecondary Education from 2004 to 2014 NA Source: America’s Career Info Network, Data Provided by State Departments of Labor

  38. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Montana, 1960-2007 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

  39. Employment A Earnings and Job Quality F Equity B Quality of Life B Resource Efficiency D Competitiveness/Existing Businesses C Entrepreneurial Energy D Human Resources A Financial Resources D Infrastructure Resources B Amenity Resources and Natural Capital B Innovation Assets C C D C Performance Business Vitality DevelopmentCapacity STRENGTHS (Top 10 Rank) WEAKNESSES (Bottom 10 Rank) RankMeasure RankMeasure 1 Manufacturing Investment 2 Change in Toxic Release Inventory 3 Business Created Via University R&D 3 Conversion of Cropland to Other Uses 4 Use of Alternative Energy 5 High School Completion 5 New Companies 6 Change in Income from Dividends, Interest and Rent 6 Voting Rate 7 Change in Unemployment Rate 7 Heart Disease 7 Change in Private Research and Development 8 K-12 Education Expenditures 8 High School Attainment 9 Disparity between Rural and Urban Areas 9 Five Year Change in New Companies 10 Change in Poverty Rate 10 Net Migration 10 Basic Educational Skills Proficiency - Reading 41 Working Poor 42 Health Professional Shortage Areas 43 Vehicle Miles Traveled 43 Greenhouse Gas Emissions 43 Broadband Access 43 Change in Health Professional Shortage Areas 44 Toxic Release Inventory 44 Urban Mass Transit 44 Royalties and Licenses 44 Venture Capital Investments 44 Uninsured Low-Income Children 46 Technology Industry Employment 46 SBIC Financing 48 Private Research and Development 49 Employer-Provided Health Insurance 49 Change in Energy Costs 50 Average Annual Pay 50 Job Creation by Start-Up Businesses 50 Strength of Traded Sector Development Report Card for the States Montana Source: 2007 Development Report Card for the States, CFED

  40. Relationship between Personal Income and Tax Revenues (2003) $45,000 CT 40,000 Correlation = 0.84 MA NJ MD NY 35,000 CO NH MN Personal Income Per Capita VA DE IL CA AK WA RI WY PA NV US MI NE HI VT FL WI 30,000 OH KS MO OR TX SD IN ND GA ME IA TN NC AZ OK MT AL SC LA KY UT 25,000 ID NM WV AR MS 20,000 Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita $2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)

  41. 12 High Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment High Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment MA CO NH Correlation = 0.76 9 CA Percentage Employment in High Tech Occupations VA NJ MN CT WA MD UT OR VT 6 ID NM AZ TX NY NE GA IL SD US PA NC RI FL IA KS MO OH WI IN DE ME AL 3 MI OK NV ND TN SC KY AR WV AK HI MS MT LA WY Low Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment Low Tech Employment, High Educational Attainment 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Relationship Between Educational Attainment and High Tech Employment Source: State New Economy Index, U.S. Census Bureau

  42. Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength $30,000 High Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment CT State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier NJ Low Tier MA MD $25,000 CO VA NH NY DE MN Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 IL WA CA AK NV MI RI US FL HI WI GA OH OR PA VT KS IN NC AZ $20,000 MO IA ME NE TX TN WY SC AL UT KY ND ID OK SD NM MT LA AR WV MS Low Income, Low Educational Attainment Low Income, High Educational Attainment $15,000 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percent of the Adults Population Ages 25 to 64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

  43. 95 ND MN WY MT AK ME VT SD IA NH Correlation = 0.76 HI WI NE CT UT KS PA MA WA 90 MI CO MD OH NJ OR Percent of Adults with a High School Diploma or Higher VA MO IL DE ID IN RI FL NY OK US WV NC GA SC 85 TN AZ AR NM LA AL NV KY MS CA TX 80 -25 0 25 State Health Index, United Health Foundation The Relationship Between Education and Health Source: U.S. Census Bureau; United Health Foundation

  44. Helena and Surrounding Area (Public Use Microdata Area)

  45. Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (2005-06) Source: 2006 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)

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