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POL 168

POL 168. Chican@/Latin@ Politics Professor Brad Jones UC-Davis. Some “Overtime” Analysis. Let’s consider some of the data from last week in temporal perspective. Party having most concern is a useful item to consider. It foreshadows the future, possibly…. Pew Surveys.

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POL 168

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  1. POL 168 Chican@/Latin@ Politics Professor Brad Jones UC-Davis

  2. Some “Overtime” Analysis • Let’s consider some of the data from last week in temporal perspective. • Party having most concern is a useful item to consider. • It foreshadows the future, possibly…

  3. Pew Surveys • Survey item asks: which party has the most concern for Latino issues. • Survey respondents are all Latin@s • I present some displays of partisan affiliation and party concern.

  4. Party having most concern for Latino Issues, 2002, 2004, 2006

  5. Implications? Findings? • This slide has some interesting stuff in it. • Note the change over time; in some sense there is not much. • However, note the drop in 2006 in the no difference category. • Where do these respondents go to? • Dem. Increases, Rep. Decreases • BUT, DK increases primarily: this suggests some ambiguity on the issue. • One way to think about this is this: there is a lot of uncertainty on this issue among Latinos about who will serve their interests best. Dems make gains, slightly. But still, there exists a lot of uncertainty (Evinced by DK category) • Side-trip to partisanship

  6. Party affiliation among Latinoswith and without leaners

  7. Main Points • There actually is a noticeable difference when accounting for leaners (not unpredictable) • Latino leaners go more in favor of Democrats when pushed. • To think of Latinos as monolithic partisans, however, is clearly wrong. (Cubanos relevant here) • Independent streak is fairly strong • Now control for partisanship on “best party” question.

  8. Party Having Most Concern: Republican Identifiers

  9. What? • The previous slide looks at the “most concern” question for Republicans. • At least from 2004 to 2006, it is clear Republican identifiers are moving more readily to the Democratic or “DK” camps. • Implication: Republicans are moving away from the party (at the margins) • Next, Democrats

  10. Party Having Most Concern: Democratic Identifiers

  11. What? • Democratic identifiers clearly see the Dems as the best party. • However, the shift from the “no difference” category is clearly toward the Dem. Party. • I think what we’re seeing among Democrats is a decrease in uncertainty about who is best able to deal with Latino issues. • What about Independent identifiers, of which there are a ton for Latinos?

  12. Party Having Most Concern: Independents

  13. What? • Look at the drop in “no difference” category? • And then look at the gain in Democratic category once we factor out Leaners.

  14. Questions • This is just a two-variable analysis • What oth • Here is what I see…

  15. Questions • If you don’t account for partisanship, the number of respondents claiming NO DIFFERENCE substantially drops… • But the increase is mostly in the DK category • However, when accounting for partisanship, there seems to be a movement, at the margins, to the Democratic side (certainly between 2004 and 2006) • This has, in my view, really cool implications…

  16. Questions • The GOP scorch and burn policy will, at the margins, be a disastrous policy • Framing of Latino issues seems to be pushing Latinos more to Democratic side • Long term: Marginalizing Latinos will have extraordinarily bad consequences for the GOP • Yeah, I’m stretching, but I think we can sustain this inference…

  17. Some Links that May Be Helpful for Projects • Pew: http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/86.pdf • NAHJ Brown Out Reports • http://www.nahj.org/resources/networkbrownoutreports/brownoutreports.shtml

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