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Modeling Work Group Discussion Points on Flexibility Reserves

Modeling Work Group Discussion Points on Flexibility Reserves. MWG Meeting December 05, 2011 Web Meeting. Proposed Agenda. Welcome, Introductions (Tom Miller) Overview of Task Discussion Topics Overview of NREL Flexibility Reserve Calculations (Jack King)

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Modeling Work Group Discussion Points on Flexibility Reserves

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  1. Modeling Work GroupDiscussion Points onFlexibility Reserves MWG Meeting December 05, 2011 Web Meeting

  2. Proposed Agenda • Welcome, Introductions (Tom Miller) • Overview of Task • Discussion Topics • Overview of NREL Flexibility Reserve Calculations (Jack King) • Lessons learned from Ethree EIM Study (Arne Olson) • Modeling flexibility reserves in PROMOD (Stan Holland) • Modeling Issues and Options • Next Steps Discussion

  3. Overview of Task • Background: Flexibility Reserves Webinar (DWG/MWG) & TAS approval to proceed • Overview of Task: • Model flexibility reserves in TEPPC studies to account for higher penetrations of variable generation • This effort will leverage the work performed by NREL and Ethree for the EIM Study • Stakeholder Participation: DWG, MWG, SWG, Topic Experts • PROMOD Expert (Stan Holland) • Proposal for December 15th TAS Conference call

  4. Discussion Topics Presentations • Overview of NREL Flexibility Reserve Calculations (Jack King) • Arne Olson (Ethree): Lessons learned from EIM Study (Arne Olson) • Stan Holland (WECC Staff) : Modeling flexibility reserves in PROMOD (Stan Holland)

  5. Issues and Options from Draft Scoping Document • ISSUE A- Granularity of Reserve Requirement • Options: Model Reserve Req. based on Daily Peak or Hourly Demand • ISSUE B: Modeling of Spin and Non-Spin • Option: increase operating reserves to include non-spin • ISSUE C: Fixed Hydro does not contribute to reserves • ISSUE D- Need for higher flexibility reserves to accommodate wind and solar resources • Proposed Option: Model composite reserves (contingency, flexibility reserves) on an hourly basis using data provided by NREL • Translation to TEPPC Topography

  6. Next Steps • Flexibility Reserve Modeling • PROMOD 2020 Test Run using EIM study data for flexibility reserves? • NREL Flexibility Reserves Data • Translation to PROMOD • Data requirements and status to estimate flexibility reserve requirements for 2022 Case • Calculate flexibility reserve requirements TEPPC 2022 Common Case • Validation Team (Seeking Volunteers) • Flexibility Reserve Proposal to TAS • Other Tasks?

  7. Questions?

  8. Modeling Work GroupDiscussion Points MWG Meeting December 05, 2011 Web Meeting

  9. Proposed Agenda • Welcome, Introductions (Tom Miller) • WECC Activities Update (Stan Holland) • Today’s Discussion Topics • Modeling of Combined Heat and Power Resources Assumptions (Nick Schlag- EThree) • Modeling Validation and Calibration • California AB32 Sensitivity • Next Meeting

  10. Modeling Validation and Calibration • TEPPC 2022 Common Case • Demand Response • Nomograms • Median Hydro • Demand Response • Hurdle Rates (2010 Case) • Sensitivity Cases • Wet and Dry Hydro • Flexibility Reserves • California AB32

  11. Wrap-up and Next meeting • Wrap-up • Next meeting • Monday December 5th

  12. Questions?

  13. AB32 TEST CASE RESULTS

  14. California AB-32 Update • Promod run to test one set of case assumptions • Objective: Initial insights to modeling of CA as an “island” for CO-2 Cost • Leverage 2010 Study Cases for 2020: • PC3 High DSM • PC4 High DSM plus $30/ton CO-2 Adder • CA thermal CO2 cost adder = $30/ton • “CO-2” Cost Adder for CA imports increased by $13/MWh

  15. Illustrative Example: Impacts to Economic Dispatch California AB32 Carbon Adders may impact interregional economic dispatch order Plant efficiency, CO2 $-Cost/ton and price of natural gas are key drivers to economic dispatch order

  16. AB32 Case: WECC Re-dispatch California AB32 California dedicated coal resources displaced by Combined Cycle generation and coal generation not subject to full CO2 Cost Adder Today Case vs. AB32 Case (includescoal) CA Designated Coal

  17. CANADA Load 140,605 Generation 158,325 Surplus 17,720 Emergency 0 Northwest Load 157,502 Generation 187,657 Surplus 30,155 Emergency 0 Basin Load 78,240 Generation 91,061 Surplus 12,821 Emergency 0 Rockies Load 69,668 Generation 73,054 Surplus 3,385 Emergency 0 CA_North Load 128,457 Generation 95,517 Surplus -32,940 Emergency 0 AZNMNV Load 128,549 Generation 144,464 Surplus 15,915 Emergency 0 CA_South & CFE Load 180,202 Generation 135,267 Surplus -44,935 Emergency 0 PC3 – High DSM

  18. CANADA Load 140,605 Generation 158,325 Surplus 17,720 Emergency 0 Northwest Load 157,502 Generation 187,657 Surplus 30,155 Emergency 0 Basin Load 78,240 Generation 91,061 Surplus 12,821 Emergency 0 Rockies Load 69,668 Generation 73,054 Surplus 3,385 Emergency 0 CA_North Load 128,457 Generation 95,517 Surplus -32,940 Emergency 0 AZNMNV Load 128,549 Generation 144,464 Surplus 15,915 Emergency 0 CA_South & CFE Load 180,202 Generation 135,267 Surplus -44,935 Emergency 0 PC3 – High DSM

  19. CANADA Load 140,605 Generation 159,011 Surplus 18,406 Emergency 0 Northwest Load 157,502 Generation 185,276 Surplus 27,774 Emergency 0 Basin Load 78,240 Generation 87,799 Surplus 9,559 Emergency 0 Rockies Load 69,668 Generation 70,827 Surplus 1,159 Emergency 0 CA_North Load 128,457 Generation 98,877 Surplus -29,580 Emergency 0 AZNMNV Load 128,549 Generation 142,331 Surplus 13,782 Emergency 0 CA_South & CFE Load 180,202 Generation 139,043 Surplus -41,159 Emergency 0 PC4 - $30 CO2 WECC

  20. CANADA Load 140,605 Generation 158,477 Surplus 17,872 Emergency 0 Northwest Load 157,502 Generation 189,371 Surplus 31,869 Emergency 0 Basin Load 78,240 Generation 91,675 Surplus 13,435 Emergency 0 Rockies Load 69,127 Generation 74,062 Surplus 4,935 Emergency 0 CA_North Load 128,213 Generation 97,146 Surplus -31,067 Emergency 0 AZNMNV Load 128,493 Generation 138,601 Surplus 10,108 Emergency 0 CA_South & CFE Load 179,705 Generation 135,250 Surplus -44,455 Emergency 0 AB32 - $30 CO2 CA w/ $13 CA hurdle

  21. TOP 10 U90 Scores

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