1 / 57

The Future of Computing

The Future of Computing. Jamie Shiers, CERN. The Future of Computing is Already Here Its just not very concentrated yet.

avani
Télécharger la présentation

The Future of Computing

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Future of Computing Jamie Shiers, CERN

  2. The Future of Computing is Already HereIts just not very concentrated yet Based on a mis-quote from William Gibson(*), the inventor of the term "cyberspace", this talk makes some bold forecasts concerning the future of computing. Given that the history of computing is littered with predictions that with hindsight look at best amusing, this is clearly either a daring or foolhardy thing to do. Nevertheless, in preparing for LHC computing - which arguably started over 10 years ago - we are required to look many years into the future. After setting the scene by revisiting some of the past's most famous blunders, we will briefly review how we arrived where we are now, before beginning wild and wonderful speculation about the future. Some of it may even come true. Sorry - be true. * The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet. Author: William Gibson

  3. Overview • Some famously bad predictions from history • Some explanations • Some infamously good predictions for posterity • Summary

  4. Not Covered… • Quantum Computing • Utility Computing • Futility Computing • Autonomic Computing • Genetic Computing These will be covered at CHEP 2004: http://www.chep2004.org/

  5. Some famously bad predictions Part A

  6. Thomas J. Watson, Sr. IBM Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: Notesfiles $Revision: 1.7.0.10 $; site convex From: poole@convex.UUCP Newsgroups: net.columbia Subject: Shuttle cameras Message-ID: <34000003@convex> Date: Wed, 19-Feb-86 17:33:00 EST Article-I.D.: convex.34000003 Posted: Wed Feb 19 17:33:00 1986 Date-Received: Fri, 21-Feb-86 05:52:16 EST On the mercury,gemini and apollo flights the command modules were equiped with cameras to monitor the astronauts as they launched. I know they have on board cameras on the shuttle but are they active during launch? And if not why? I don't recall seeing any inside shuttle shots during any news coverage but I hav'nt seen every launch. I understand that there is a lot of shaking going on but some reasonable image would still be possible. Does anyone have any info on this subject? Thanks, Rick Poole **"I think there is a world market for about five computers" ** ** --Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson ** ** (Chairman of the Board of International Business Machines),1943 ** • “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”, 1943 • Did he really say this? • N.B. IBM was not a computing companyin 1943…

  7. Computing Timeline • January 1943: Harvard Mark I • Used by US Navy to calculate ballistics • December 1943: Colossus (10 machines built) • Used to crack Enigma machines • 1946: ENIAC completed • Weighed 30 tonnes, contained 18,000 Electronic Valves, consumed around 25kW • 1947: Invention of the transistor • 1949: “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons”, Popular Mechanics • 1953: Estimate of 100 computers in the world

  8. Ken Olsen, DEC • There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. • Ken Olsen, President, Digital Equipment, 1977 • I'm quoted all the time as saying (early during the PC revolution) that there was no reason to have a computer in the home • I said,'I don't think we want our personal lives run by computer.' • If you steal something from the refrigerator at midnight, you don't want it entered into the computer

  9. Seymour Cray • “If you were ploughing a field, which would you rather use? Two strong oxen or 1024 chickens?” • Seymour Cray (1925-1996), father of supercomputing

  10. Larry Ellison, Oracle, 2001/2 • We’ve had 3 major generations of computing: mainframes, client-server and Internet Computing • There will be no new architecture for computing for the next 1,000 years • OracleWorld, Sep. 2003, JDS, from CERN, birthplace of Web, said that Grid Computing is “the next big thing” • Ellison said “Grid Computing is the biggest thing in about 40 years”

  11. Thanks, Larry…

  12. Other Failed Predictions… • Object Databases – predicted to replace Relational Technology • With same growth curve as RDBMS before… • IA64 – even Intel doesn’t sound convincing when talking about this anymore…

  13. RD45 Risk Analysis: Issues • Choice of Technology • ODBMS, ORDBMS, RDBMS, “light-weight” Persistency, files + meta-data, ... • Choice of Vendor (historically) • #1 Objectivity, #2 Versant • Size of market • Did not take off as anticipated; • unlikely to grow significantly in short-medium term

  14. The Future of Computing is Already HereIts just not very concentrated yet Based on a mis-quote from William Gibson(*), the inventor of the term "cyberspace", this talk makes some bold forecasts concerning the future of computing. Given that the history of computing is littered with predictions that with hindsight look at best amusing, this is clearly either a daring or foolhardy thing to do. Nevertheless, in preparing for LHC computing - which arguably started over 10 years ago - we are required to look many years into the future.After setting the scene by revisiting some of the past's most famous blunders,we will briefly review how we arrived where we are now, before beginning wild and wonderful speculation about the future. Some of it may even come true. Sorry - be true. * The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet.Author: William Gibson

  15. Computing for the LHC • Started seriously at CHEP’92, Annecy • “OO” had a dedicated track • Numerous talks looking forward to needs of LHC and SSC • “Databases for High Energy Physics” panel • Should we buy or build systems for our calibration and book-keeping needs? • Will database technology advance sufficiently in the next 8 – 10 years to provide byte-level access to petabytes of SSC/LHC data? • Web emerged as key conference theme • Convergence of technologies…

  16. From the Web to the Grid 16 July 2004 -- Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web … was dubbed Knight Commander, Order of the British Empire (KBE) by Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II The rank of Knight Commander is the second most senior rank of the Order of the British Empire... • The term “Disruptive technology” coined by Clayton M. Christensen • A new, lower performance, but less expensive product • Gains foothold in low-end part of market, gradually moves up • Examples: music downloads vs CDs; open source vs proprietary; e-commerce vs shops … • Also (mis)used to mean “technology that changes way you think / work” • Classic examples: The Web; Linux • Future example: The Grid? "I am humbled by this great honour," stated Sir Timothy World Wide Web Inventor Receives One Million Euros Prize from Finnish Technology Award Foundation

  17. The Birth of Unix • In 1969, Ken Thompson wrote a small time-sharing system on a cast-off PDP-7 • (reaction against “Multics” project) • From 1972 Unix Programmers’ Manual: “The number of Unix installations has grown to 10, with more expected.” • In 1973, Dennis Ritchie and Thompson rewrote the Unix kernel in C From: torvalds@klaava.Helsinki.FI (Linus Benedict Torvalds) Newsgroups: comp.os.minix Subject: Gcc-1.40 and a posix-question Date: 3 Jul 91 10:00:50 GMT Hello netlanders, Due to a project I'm working on (in minix), I'm interested in the posix standard definition. Could somebody please point me to a (preferably) machine-readable format of the latest posix rules? Ftp-sites would be nice. • Before Multics there was chaos… • and afterwards too…

  18. The IBM PC • On August 12, 1981, IBM released their new computer, the IBM PC • In July of 1980, IBM representatives met with Microsoft's Bill Gates to talk about an operating system for the PC • In January 1983, Time Magazine named the PC “Man of the Year” • i.e. just over 1 year from the launch

  19. OK – enough of the past…

  20. (Very) Conservative Predictions Part 2

  21. Predictions from 2000 Summer Student Lectures 2002: http://cern.ch/ssl-computing/default.htm • In 2010, everything worth more than a few $ will know that its yours… • A speck of dust on each fingernail will communicate with your computer • Your house, office and car will be continuously aware of your presence • Tyres will communicate with the on-board computer if pressure is low, your milk carton will signal if the contents are off… (sorry Ken…) • In 2020, sensors will monitor all major bodily systems, providing early warning of diseases…

  22. Predictions from 2000 Summer Student Lectures 2002: http://cern.ch/ssl-computing/default.htm • In 2010, everything worth more than a few $ will know that its yours… • A speck of dust on each fingernail will communicate with your computer • Your house, office and car will be continuously aware of your presence • Tyres will communicate with the on-board computer if pressure is low, your milk carton will signal if the contents are off… (sorry Ken…) • In 2020, sensors will monitor all major bodily systems, providing early warning of diseases…

  23. Smart Dust / RFID tags / Motes • OK, RFID tags are more like “smart corn-flakes” • But they are already close to ubiquitous • Warehouse tracking, luggage tracking (IATA project) • Cost negligible compared to anything worth buying • The drive to smaller / cheaper inevitable

  24. Database Predictions • IBM “Global Technology Outlook” • zettabytes by 2010 • 1,000,000 PB • VLDB: yottabytes by 2020 • 1,000,000,000 PB

  25. Etymology1 – PC Hariharan • Kilo Greek khilioi = 1000 • Mega megas = great, e.g., Alexandros Megas • Giga gigas = giant • Tera teras = monster, e.g. “Monster byte” • Peta pente = five, fifth prefix, peNta - N = peta • Exa hex = six, sixth prefix, Hexa - H = exa Remember, in standard French,the initial H is silent, so they would pronounce Hexa as Exa. It is far easier to call it Exa for everyone's sake, right? • Zetta almost homonymic with Greek Zeta, but the last letter of the Latin alphabet • Yotta almost homonymic with Greek iota, but the penultimate letter of the Latin alphabet 1 Corrected by Ioannis Papadopoulos (Greek)

  26. How much data is there? • LHC Data Volumes: 10PB in 2008? • Estimates of new data / year: 5EB in 2002 • All words ever spoken by humans: 5EB • The Personal Petabyte / The Enterprise Exabyte The Challenge: • Can we store everything and keep it for ever?

  27. Balloon (30 Km) CD stack with 1 year LHC data! (~ 20 Km – 20M CDs) Concorde (15 Km) = 1% of Monte Bianco (4.8 km) LHC data (simplified) 1 Megabyte (1MB) A digital photo 1 Gigabyte (1GB) = 1000MB A DVD movie 1 Terabyte (1TB) = 1000GB World annual book production 1 Petabyte (1PB) = 1000TB 10% of the annual production by LHC experiments 1 Exabyte (1EB) = 1000 PB World annual information production • Per experiment: • 40 million collisions per second • After filtering, 100 collisions of interest / sec • A Megabyte of digitised information for each collision = recording rate of 0.1 Gigabytes/sec • 1 billion collisions recorded = 1 Petabyte/year Total: ~10.000.000.000.000.000 bytes/year CMS LHCb ATLAS ALICE

  28. How Much Information? • Study at Berkeley based on: • 4 storage media (+5EB) • Print, film, magnetic, optical • 4 information flows (+18EB) • Telephone, radio and TV, and the Internet • Phone calls contained 17.3EB of new data(!) • Most recent study (2003) based on 2002 • 92% data on magnetic media, 7% film • Growth +30% / year 1999 – 2002 http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/

  29. Predictions for storage capacity • 1992 – 1TB = Mass Storage Threshold • 2004 – 1TB = “smallest unit of disk” • 2020 – 1PB will cost $1K The Personal Petabyte will be reality • But how do you fill it? • 1 book / day for 80 years: 30GB • 100 pix / day for 80 years: 30TB • Mp3 24 x 365 x 80: 42TB • Video (DVD quality): 1PB = ~50 years

  30. Predictions from 1945 • Vannevar Bush described a device called a ‘memex’ in “As we may think” • A memex is a device in which an individual stores all his books, records, and communications, and which is mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed and flexibility. It is an enlarged intimate supplement to his memory. • He influenced both Douglas Engelbart and Ted Nelson – & in turn (Sir) TimBL http://www.csi.uottawa.ca/~dduchier/misc/vbush/awmt.html

  31. Ted Nelson Proposal • “Some 6 year old is going to grow up to be President. Why not record absolutely everything of her / his life?” • Is this the Vannevar Bush vision? • Consider a future device for individual use, which is a sort of mechanized private file and library. It needs a name, and to coin one at random, “memex” will do... • In one end is the stored material. The matter of bulk is well taken care of by improved microfilm. Only a small part of the interior of the memex is devoted to storage, the rest to mechanism. Yet if the user inserted 5000 pages of material a day it would take him hundreds of years to fill the repository, so he can be profligate and enter material freely. "The Hypertext," an article by Nelson, appeared as part of the Proceedings of the World Documentation Federation, 1965.  However, it is not until Dream Machines that discussion of the concept is published on a wider scale.  Here Nelson thoroughly divulges the work of his cybernetic predecessors (as well as pugnacious views regarding governmental bureaucracy and the computer industry).  He expands the work of earlier visionaries by introducing Xanadu, his dream, “to give you a screen in your home from which you can see into the world's hypertext libraries.”

  32. MyLifeBits: The guinea pig • Gordon Bell is digitizing his life! • Has now scanned virtually all: • Books written (and read when possible) • Personal documents (correspondence, memos, bills, legal…) • Photos • Posters, paintings, photo of things (artifacts, …medals, plaques) • Home movies and videos • CD collection • And, of course, all PC files • Now recording: phone, radio, TV (movies), web pages… conversations • Paperless throughout 2002. 12” scanned, 12’ discarded. • Only 30 GB!!! Excluding digital videos • Video is 2+ TB and growing fast Slide from Jim Gray - http://research.microsoft.com/~Gray/

  33. MyLifeBits Jim Gemmell & Gordon BellSDForum Distinguished Speaker SeriesFebruary 19, 2004

  34. gbell wag: 67 yr, 25Kday lifea Personal Petabyte 1PB Slide from Jim Gray - http://research.microsoft.com/~Gray/

  35. Evolution of Computing • From the earliest days, the growth of computing has been from newapplications • If we were still doing Early Warning Systems, there would not be (multiple) computers in every home • Instead of 5 computers on the planet, we (will) have 5 per person on the planet (6 x 109) • Or probably many many more…

  36. The Future & Grid Computing Part D

  37. Outline • Enterprise Computing • Personal Computing

  38. The Grid vs the Web • Although its trendy to compare Grid to Web, there are many similarities • Many of us were doing much of this before • But in non-standard / incompatible ways • “Nobody” was on the Internet before the Web explosion • “Nobody” is using Grid now • (see next slide) • If you’re not on the Web now you’re Nobody • Get the picture?

  39. What Will Make the Grid Successful == UbiquitousWhat Is Ubiquity? • used a billion times per day • Browse: Mosaic, Navigator, Explorer • Portal: AOL, MSN,… • Email: … • Chat: IRC… • Instant message: ICQ • Search: AltaVista, Yahoo!, Google,… • Share: Napster, Gnutella,…. • Compute: SETI,… Slide from Jim Gray – Open Issues in Grid Computing

  40. Will the Grid work? • The question is irrelevant • But your going to ask it anyway… • The answer is: • What works will be called the Grid

  41. Enterprise Grids The Oracle vision: • Many companies have dedicated systems per department • Typically sized for peak load • Typically underused <20% • Move away from ‘big iron’ • In this case large SMPs • Move towards blades • Typically dual processor Intel boxes • And Oracle software… • “Oracle (10g) resonates with the Grid” • Oracle9i offers scalability, information sharing, and VLDB features for CERN LHC Computing Grid http://www.oracle.com/technology/products/oracle9i/grid_computing/index.html

  42. What is the ‘killer’ app for Grid? • If there’s all this ‘free’ CPU out there… • Obvious application is Games • e.g. “Weapons of Mass Destruction” • A Game for Two Players… • But more seriously, why not use the Grid to address some of the most serious problems that faces the human race… • “Diseases of Mass Destruction”

  43. Grid.org • Used in projects such as cancer, anthrax and smallpox research

  44. Public Utility Computing • Class example – SETI@HOME • Based on “Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing” – BOINC • “The majority of the world's computing power is no longer in supercomputercenters and institutional machine rooms. Instead, it is now distributed in the hundreds of millions of personal computers all over the world. In a few more years, other consumer devices like game consoles and television set-top boxes may comprise a large fraction of total computing power.”

  45. Scientific Grids • Will be covered in great detail at this school… • Also CERN summer student lectures: • http://agenda.cern.ch/tools/SSLPdisplay.php?stdate=2004-07-05&nbweeks=7 • Grid: • Francois Grey (CERN openlab) • Markus Schulz (LCG / EGEE)

  46. Personal Computing in 2020 When LHC stops running(Data will still be being analyzed)

  47. Computing in 2020 • Trends, such as increases in processor power, storage capacity, wireless coverage –any technology – will make today’s environment look neolithic • 100 x evolution per decade; 10,000 x by 2020! • Convergence (PDAs, phones, music & video players, cameras, e-books, …) will seem about as “cool” as Digital watches • Pretty much every device is already a (video) camera… • Human / machine interface will be radically different • Computer vision, speech, … “By 2015, wearables will have virtually eliminated desktop, laptop, and handheld solutions altogether, leaving only installed computers – i.e. computers and monitors built into the walls of your home – and wearables.”

  48. Convergence Devices • Introducing the petfrog, the “Integrated Fusion Device” of the future. The petfrog is the first wireless communication and computing concept with a totally integrated hardware, software, and content user-interface. It is a personal computer, PDA, Digital Media player, camera, karaoke machine, and more.

  49. “Augmented” Reality • Overview/Augmented Reality • Augmented-reality (AR) systems add computer-generated information to a user's sensory perceptions. Whereas virtual reality aims to replace the real world, augmented reality supplements it. • Most research focuses on "see-through" devices, usually worn on the head, that overlay graphics and text on the user's view of the world. • Recent technological improvements may soon lead to the introduction of AR systems for surgeons, repair people, soldiers, tourists and computer gamers. Eventually the systems may become commonplace. • Plato suggested that writing would“create forgetfulness” and the“… show of wisdom without the reality” • Similar arguments were made more recently about calculators… • Will we be shy of using computers to “aid our memory” (Bush) and benefit from the “intellect of … the world” (Wells) ? • No more so than we are shy of using a household appliance today..

More Related