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Paradigms and the Future of Computing

Paradigms and the Future of Computing. Manuel E. Bermúdez, Ph.D. CISE, University of Florida manuel@cise.ufl.edu http://www.cise.ufl.edu/~manuel. Contents. Paradigms. Paradigm definition. The paradigm shift. Paradigm blindness and paralysis. Examples. Future Perspectives. Conclusions.

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Paradigms and the Future of Computing

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  1. Paradigms and the Future of Computing Manuel E. Bermúdez, Ph.D. CISE, University of Florida manuel@cise.ufl.edu http://www.cise.ufl.edu/~manuel

  2. Contents • Paradigms. • Paradigm definition. • The paradigm shift. • Paradigm blindness and paralysis. • Examples. • Future Perspectives. • Conclusions. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  3. Definition of Paradigm. • Thomas Kuhn (TheStructure of ScientificRevolutions): "… acceptedsamples of practicalmethods in science” (keyword: accepted) • Adam Smith (Powers of theMind): ”A shared set of assumedfacts. Water to thefish, a paradigmexplainstheworld and allowsus to predictitsbehavior. When in themiddle of a paradigm, itisdifficult to imagine anyother“ (keywords: fish in water). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  4. Definition of Paradigm (cont.) • Willis Hartman (AnIncompleteGuide to theFuture): "… a basicway of perceiving, thinking, valuing and doingthingsthat are associatedwith a particular vision of reality”. (keywords: particular vision) • Marilyn Ferguson (TheAquarianConspiracy): "… a frameworkforthought… a schemeforunderstanding and explainingcertainaspects of reality“ (keywords: understanding, explaining). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  5. Definition of Paradigm (cont.) • Joel Barker (DiscoveringtheFuture: The Business of Paradigms): " … a set of rules that define limits, and establishwhat’snecessary to be succesfullwithinthoselimits". (keywords: rules, definingbehavior) • IMPORTANT: • Paradigmstend to haveVERY FEW rules. • Humanshave a STRONGtendency to resistlettingthemgo. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  6. The Paradigm Shift • A change in rules: old rules notonly stop beinguseful, butthey GET IN THE WAY. • Examples(in general): • Nomadism to Sedentarianism. • Geocentrism to Heliocentrism. • Creationism to Evolution. • Catastrophism to Gradualism. • Regionalism to Globalization. • Globalization to ??? • Climatechange. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  7. The paradigm shift(cont.) • Examples (in computing): • Structured programming. • Object oriented programming. • The WWW. • “Towers of Hanoi” • Ubiquitous computing • Waterfall to Agile (Software Engineering) • Expert Systems to Machine Learning. • Trifecta: ubiquitous, cloud-supported, AI • IMPORTANT: • Paradigm shifts occur suddenly. • Their timing is VERY difficult to predict. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  8. The paradigm shift (cont.) • Change is instigated by an “outsider”. • The new college graduate, or a scientist moving from one discipline to another: • Unfamiliar with the established paradigm. • Not “vested” in the old paradigm. • Example: ”If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done it. The literature is full of examples that show that this cannot be done" -- (Spencer Silver of 3M, inventor of Post-it notes). Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  9. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis • The mortal disease of certainty. • Paradigms act as physiological filters; a colored filter before the eyes. • The rules for the new paradigm are often completely INVISIBLE to those still subscribing to the old paradigm. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  10. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis • Example: In the late 1930’s, Chester Carlson showed Kodak, IBM and 41 other companies his new “photographic system”: • a steel plate, some black powder, a piece of cat fur, a piece of amber, some wax paper, and an iron. • Only the Halloid Corporation adopted the new system (they later became ???) Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  11. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis • Example: Who invented the quartz clock? • The swiss! • Characteristics of paradigm blindness: • ”That’s not the way we do it". • ”It is not going to work". • ”That’s impossible". • ”If you had my years of experience, you would know you are wrong“ Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  12. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis Example: • A personal computer for the year 2004: Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  13. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  14. Paradigm Blindness and Paralysis • Examples . . . Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  15. Some Future Perspectives • Carl Sagan (astronomer),1970: • This human generation is unique: • In its youth, the stars were a mystery. • In its old age, it is witness to humanity’s first off-planet exploratory steps. • Manuel Bermúdez (witch doctor), 2018: • This human generation is UNIQUE: • It’s the last one that will remember what the world was like before it was CONNECTED. Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  16. Some Future Perspectives • ~1975, Bill Gates made a bet: $/CPU-cycle 0. • What can youbetontoday ? • The ratio: NBTS/$   • Moore’sLaw ? • Web Services: computing as a utility • Impact of Robotics: social displacement, warfare, economics, transportation • Nanotech, Nanomed Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  17. Some Future Perspectives • Consequences (among many others): • More opportunities than ever, to position oneself favorably (Hint: go to graduate school NOW). • Eventually, “friction-free capitalism" (Bill Gates) • Availability of perfect market information, in real time. • Paradigm shift: manufacturing responding to market, rather than trying to anticipate it (Dell). • The factory of the future: one man, one dog . . . Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  18. Some Future Perspectives • Harlan Mills, 1995: • Software engineering is now 50 years old. • At age 50, civil engineering had not yet developed the right-angle triangle. • Bermúdez, 2018: • We marvel at the empiricism of the Egyptians and Maya as they built their pyramids. • In the year 7000, will they marvel at us ? Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  19. Conclusions • This is a GREAT time to be involved in the area of computing. Few (if any) other disciplines show as much dynamism as CS/CE does. • The same characteristics that make this such a dynamic profession, also make us vulnerable to paradigm shifts. • Many people will be left behind. • A short story ... Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

  20. Conclusions • Thank you ! Paradigms - DSI Symposium 3/17/2018

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