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History of Computing and Future?

History of Computing and Future?. 고려대학교 최 린. Evolution of Computing Generations. Mainframes IBM 701 (1952) - The first IBM mainframe IBM System/360 (1964) – A wholly new architecture designed for data processing, family of models and operating systems (OS360, DOS360, TOS360, ..)

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History of Computing and Future?

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  1. History of Computing and Future? 고려대학교 최 린

  2. Evolution of Computing Generations • Mainframes • IBM 701 (1952) - The first IBM mainframe • IBM System/360 (1964) – A wholly new architecture designed for data processing, family of models and operating systems (OS360, DOS360, TOS360, ..) • System/370 (1970) to zEnterprise System (Linux) (2010) • Minicomputers • DEC PDP-8 (1964) – The first commercially successful minicomputer • PDP-5 and PDP-1 (1960) are precursors • VAX series (since mid 1970’s) – 32-bit extension of the 16-bit PDP-11, virtual memory • Workstations and Servers • Xeros Alto (1973) – The first single-user graphic workstation • 3M (1MFLOS CPU, 1MB Memory, 1Mega pixel) machines in early 1980’s – 10 times performance of the PC at that time • IBM, SGI, Sun, HP, DEC

  3. Evolution of Computing Generations • PC • Apple 1 (1976) and Apple 2 (1977) – by Steve Jobs , 8-bit home desktop computers • IBM PC 5150 (1981) – The original version of IBM PC platforms • 5160 (XT, 1983), 5170 (AT, 1984) • Microsoft, Apple, Intel, AMD, Motorolla • PDA • Apple Newton (1992) – The term PDA was first used • Palm Pilot (1997) • MS Windows CE (1996), Pocket PC (2000) • Touchscreen with stylus input, virtual keyboard, and handwriting recognition • Smart Phones • Apple iPhone (2007), 3G(2008), 3GS(2009), 4(2010) • HTC Dream (T-Mobile G1) (2008) – 1st Google Android Phone • Losers: Nokia, LG • Winners: Apple, Google • Mid-rangers: Samsung, HTC, Rim, Motorolla,

  4. Computing Generations and Industry IBM, Unisys, HP(Tandem), Fujitsu, Hitachi, NEC DEC, Data General, Apollo, HP IBM System/360 IBM zEnterprise SUN, HP, DEC, SGI, Intel DEC PDP-11 SUN SparcStation 10 MS, Intel, Dell, HP, Compaq, Apple, Motorolla Palm, Compaq, Apple DELL PC IBM PC AT Palm Pilot Apple, Google Apple iPhone Samsung Gallaxy II

  5. Top 10 Companies by Market Capital • March 2000 • Microsoft (586B) • GE (475B) • NTT DoCoMo (366B) • Cisco (349B) • Wal-Mart (286B) • Intel (277B) • NTT (275B) • Exxon Mobil (266B) • Lucent (238B) • Deutsche Telecom (209B) • December 2010 • Exxon Mobil (369B) • Petro China (303B) • Apple (296B) • BHP Billiton (243B) • Microsoft (239B) • I&C Bank of China (233B) • PetroBras (229B) • China Construction Bank (222B) • Royal Dutch Shell (208B) • Nestle (203B)

  6. Top 10 IT Companies 2010 • By Revenue • Samsung (117B) • HP (114B) • Hitachi (99B) • IBM (95B) • Sony (79B) • Toshiba (76B) • Panasonic (76B) • Dell (61B) • Foxconn (59B) • Nokia (58B) • Microsoft (58B) • Apple (42B) • Cisco (36B) • Intel (35B) • By Market Capital • Apple (296B) • Microsoft (239B) • Google (186B) • IBM (177B) • Oracle (135B) • Samsung (123B) • Intel (118B) • Cisco (107B) • HP (96B) • Amazon (92B)

  7. Embedded Computing & Digital Convergence • 핸드폰 • Feature phone + Computing  SmartPhone • TV • Digital TV + Computing  SmartTV • Portable music player • Sony Walkman  MP3 Player  MP3 Player + Computing  iPod • Camera • Analog Camera  Digital Camera • Game Box • Nintendo Wii, Sony Playstation, Microsoft XBOX

  8. Computing Convergence

  9. N Screen Strategy by Apple

  10. AppleRevenue By Segment

  11. Profit in Mobile Phone Industry

  12. Smart Technologies • Smart Phone • Smart TV • Provides all the information stream including live TV programs, recorded programs and movies, web pages, video phone streams, music, camera images and video streams • Smart Car • Auto + IT • Telemetics (Blue Link), Smart Phone interface with embedded Tablet PC, GPS, GIS, HUD(Head Up Display) • Entertainment, Navigation, Safety, Communication, Convenience (Self-Parking, Selft-Manuevering, Voice Recognition) • Google’s self-driving smart car has successfully driven 140K miles without driver • Smart Home, Office, Building • Smart Factory • Smart Infra (Green IT, Smart Grid)

  13. Smart Home + Smart Car + Smart User • Smart Home • TV will become the smart home control unit • Light control, environmental monitoring, safety, security, emergency calls, utility control, communication • Smart Home applications • Smart Car • Auto + IT gives new functions: Entertainment, Navigation, Safety, Communication, Convenience • Smart Car applications

  14. Smart TV • Home entertainment platform (IPTV) • Provides all the information streams including live TV programs, recorded programs and movies, web pages, video phone, music and music videos, camera images and video streams • Home server platform (PC) • Will replace PC platforms! • Wired and wireless connection through home networks to various home devices as well as to outside world • Smart home applications: utility monitoring and control, security, emergency and healthcare, light/temperature/entrance/sound, communications • Requires • Light-weight OS platform: No MS Windows! • Must feel like TV, fast booting, TV and web browser is the main application, slow connection to printers and other IO devices • New UI: smart remote control, wireless keyboard, higher resolution for text and image viewing, multi-touch and motion UI, voice and image recognition • Scalable platforms : compatible with Smart Phones and Smart Cars

  15. Smart Car • Technology revolution will reshape the market dynamics • TV 기술이 브라운 관에서 LCD 패널로 바뀌면서 Sony 가 몰락하고 Samsung과 LG가 주역이 됨 • 자동차 기술 역시, 기존의 가솔린/디젤 엔진 시대에서 고유가/친환경/에너지 등의 이슈로 하이브리드/전기차 시대로 전환되고 있음 • 이와 더불어 Smart 기술과 자동차+IT (임베디드 융합) 기술이 발전함에 따라 safety, navigation, entertainment, convenience에 대한 요구 사항이 증대되고 새로운 시장 개편이 예고되고 있음 • 지금은 독일/일본/한국이 주도하고 있는 자동차 시장이 IT기술력과 전기차 원천 기술을 가지고 있는 미국에 의해 주도되는 새로운 시장 재편의 가능성이 큼 • Smart Car Technology • Modern car already includes a few hundred microprocessors with network connection (CAN, WiFi, 3G, DMB..) • IO-intensive real-time platforms: front/rear cameras, GPS-based navigation, radar, MP3/CD, DMB, HiPASS, HUD(Head Up Display), Integrated Sound, 통신 • Must be light-weight, Multi-touch/voice-recognition UI • Smart Car Apps: 차량 진단, 유지보수, 미디어 파일 관리, 내비, 교통, 주변정보 • Entertainment/Navigation/Safety/Convenience

  16. Future – Smart Computing? • 미래 Smart 기술의 주도는 다음의 기술에 달려 있음 • Smart TV: TV + PC + Home server • 스마트폰처럼 기존 PC 시장이 재편될 수 있는 새로운 시장환경 • Smart Car: electronic IT device with real-time heavy IO functionalities • Smart User: will replace today’s smart phone and computing industry • 스마트폰 시장 역시 새로운 컴퓨팅 세대에 자리를 넘겨줄 것 • Invisible/wearable computing • 의복에 마이크/스피커/카메라/키보드 등이 내재되어 있음 • 디스플레이는 flexibile display, 콘텍트 렌즈형태 • 새로운 UI: 센서 기반의 keyboardless input, motion/voice/image recognition, 생체 인식을 통한 감성/인지 컴퓨팅 • 새로운 스마트 사용자 플랫폼 개발에 대한 연구 투자 필요

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