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NHL Spatial Shot Analysis: Goal Probability Maps

Explore probability maps of NHL shots based on seasons 08-09 and 09-10, analyzing goal probabilities across zones and player performance. Learn how spatial analysis impacts goal scoring in the NHL.

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NHL Spatial Shot Analysis: Goal Probability Maps

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  1. NHL Shot Probability MapsMichael SchuckersSt. Lawrence Universityschuckers@stlawu.edu Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings Vancouver, BC August 2, 2010 Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  2. DATA • Based on all NHL regular season shots 08-09 and 09-10 • Excludes penalty shots, empty net shots, shootouts • Spatial mapping of probability of a goal • Offensive Zone: Blue line to Goal line • [Blue line at left, Goal at Right] Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  3. League Average (Darker is higher) Blue Line Goal Line GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  4. Goal probability maps • Maps are differences from league-wide average probability of a goal at a given location • Red above average (Good for shooters) • Blue below average (Good for goalies) • White is league average Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  5. Difference from League Averagefor each of the 5 holes/zones Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  6. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  7. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  8. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  9. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  10. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  11. Forwards Red is above average (GOOD) Blue is below average (BAD) Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  12. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  13. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  14. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  15. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  16. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  17. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  18. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  19. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  20. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  21. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  22. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  23. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  24. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  25. Goalies Red is above average (BAD) Blue is below average (GOOD) Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  26. GOAL Martin Broudeur – Goalie – New Jersey Devils Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  27. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  28. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  29. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  30. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  31. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  32. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  33. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  34. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  35. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  36. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

  37. GOAL Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

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