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Dynamic Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda

Dynamic Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda. CDT Matthew R Webb 1 November 2006 ARL/USMA Technical Symposium. Agenda. What is Dynamic Social Network Analysis? Network Measures Statistical Process Control Application: Al-Qaeda Method Preliminary Results Future Research Questions. Time.

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Dynamic Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda

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  1. Dynamic Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda CDT Matthew R Webb 1 November 2006 ARL/USMA Technical Symposium

  2. Agenda • What is Dynamic Social Network Analysis? • Network Measures • Statistical Process Control • Application: Al-Qaeda • Method • Preliminary Results • Future Research • Questions

  3. Time Experience What is Dynamic Network Analysis? • Social Network Analysis (SNA) is the mathematical methodology of quantifying connections between individuals and groups. • Dynamic SNA compares snapshots of a network over time to determine when the network changes.

  4. Network Measures • Key Network Measures • Density • Degree Centrality • Closeness Centrality • Betweeness Centrality • Diameter Graph courtesy of Steve Borgatti

  5. Statistical Process Control • Calculates a statistic from sequential measurements of a random process and compares it to a control limit. • Used extensively in quality engineering. • Example cutting boards at a lumber mill

  6. Statistical Process Control • Cumulative-Sum Control Chart • Good at detecting small changes in mean over time • Built in change point detection • Calculate Zivalue for each time-period. • Two Charts (To Detect Increase and Decrease)

  7. Application - Method • The Office of Naval Research maintains network data on Al-Qaeda. • Ran CUSUM Control Chart for three Network Measures (Betweeness, Closeness, and Density)

  8. Application - Results The control chart signals a change in the network in 2000/2001. A MLE of the change point is 1997. - Increased activity of IG - Bright Star ’97 cut short - Feb ’98 Islamic Front - Embassy bombings in ’98 1997 was THE critical planning year for Al-Qaeda. Signal Change Point

  9. Future Research • New Data • IkeNet and TOEP Data • Near-Complete Network Picture • More Snapshots • New Approaches • What if Network Picture is Incomplete? • What Network Measures are the most telling? • Which Control Chart work best?

  10. Questions?

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