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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY.

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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY

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  1. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY Rynda Hudman 1,2, Dominick Spracklen 1,3, Jennifer Logan3 Loretta J. Mickley3, Maria Val Martin3, Shiliang Wu3,4, Rose Yevich3, Alan Cantin5, Mike Flannigan5, Tony Westerling6 Affiliations: 1 School of Engineering, Harvard 2 Now at UC Berkeley 3 Now at University of Leeds 4 Now at Michigan Tech 5 Canadian Forest Service 6 UC Merced

  2. PREDICTING FUTURE FIRE IMPACTS ON U.S. OZONE OBSERVED AREA BURNED WEATHER & FUEL MOISTURE/ FIRE SEVERITY AREA BURNED PREDICTION Yearly Area Burned = C1X1 + C2X2 + … + C0 GISS GCM Output (2050, A1B) FUTURE AREA BURNED GCAP [Wu et al., 2008] Emissions Future Fire Impacts on U.S. ozone air quality

  3. PROJECTED WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE NOx EMISSIONS increase primarily driven by 1.8K Temperature Increase 2050 PROJECTED WILDFIRE NOx EMISSIONS ARE 50% LARGER THAN 2000 * We use fuel consumption projections for W. US from Spracklen et al., [2009]

  4. PREDICTED JULY MEAN MAXIMUM 8-HR OZONE perturbation from fires doubles 5 Years Future (2046-2050) vs. 5 Years Present (1996-2000) Consistent with these results, recent observational estimates of regional enhancements of 2 ppbv for each 1 million acres burned [Jaffe et al., 2008]

  5. REGRESSIONS CAPTURE VARIABILITY IN REGIONS WITH LARGEST AREA BURNED Major predictors in regressions: 500 mb GPH & Drought Severity Rating

  6. DOES RAIN OFFSET TEMPERATURE INCREASE? GISS simulated May – August 2046-2055 vs. 1996-2005

  7. AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS 25% increase over Canada and Alaska w/ large regional variability [%] 25% increase in dry mass consumption + FUEL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES (Maria Val Martin)

  8. FUTURE WORK Ozone enhancement from NA biomass burning 0-2 km Simulated July 2004 mean • Finalize stochastic placement of the fires • Decide how to deal with areas that reburn and fire length • Do the runs… [Hudman et al., 2009]

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