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Socio-Economic Scenarios

Socio-Economic Scenarios. Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities. RT7 Team. FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW Richard Tol FEEM, Venice Roberto Roson CIRED, Paris Jean-Charles Hourcade IIASA, Vienna Brian O‘Neill

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Socio-Economic Scenarios

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  1. Socio-Economic Scenarios Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities

  2. RT7 Team • FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW • Richard Tol • FEEM, Venice • Roberto Roson • CIRED, Paris • Jean-Charles Hourcade • IIASA, Vienna • Brian O‘Neill • RIVM, Utrecht • Tom Kram • CICERO, Oslo • Asbjorn Aaheim • LSHTM, London • Sari Kovats

  3. Tasks • Ensembles of emissions scenarios • Ensembles of emission reduction scenarios • Scenarios of land use and adaptive capacity • Feedback of climate change on emissions scenarios through impacts of climate change on economy and human health • Towards the construction of the economic component of an earth system model

  4. Emissions scenarios • Events have overtaken this task • GCMs have started running the SRES scenarios, and there have always been ensembles of scenarios available • We can extend this in the light of the recent critique on SRES and IPCC and recent model developments • We can add a fifth, politically incorrect scenario • But only if you intend to run it ...

  5. Emissions scenarios ENSEMBLES Objective Needed

  6. Emission reduction scenarios • USDoE, EMF and ENSEMBLES RT7 decided to join forces in developing emission reduction scenarios • Emission reduction scenarios need to specify four things • No control scenario (SRES) • Stabilisation target (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm CO2, CO2eq, rad. forc., temperature) • Reduction target allocation over space and time • Implementation • Aim is to find a small, representative number of cases

  7. Land use • Run IIASA and RIVM models for the above scenarios • Work towards LPJ - Land use Adaptive capacity • Is needed for impacts • Add further detail to the population and economic drivers of the emissions scenarios

  8. Conventional, scenario-based analyses… emissions Climate systems Socio-economic systems

  9. Conventional, scenario-based analyses… emissions Climate systems Socio-economic systems …miss one important feedback!

  10. Assessing the economic impact of climate change:some key concepts • Multiplicity of effects • e.g., sea level, health, tourism, energy demand, water availability, extreme events, land use, agricultural productivity… • Market interdependence • General equilibrium • Computable general equilibrium models (CGE)

  11. Computable General Equilibrium Models:Pros and Cons • + a unifying framework for the consistent analysis of heterogeneous impacts; • + a widely accepted assessment tool; • + general-purpose and flexible; • - data demanding; • - rarely used on long-term horizons; • - national accounting, market based parameter estimation; • - calibrated, cannot readily take into account non observable technologies.

  12. Simulation experiments of climate change impacts

  13. Some further remarks • Others, more significant impacts • Dynamics

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