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PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges

PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges. TSDM 21 Source: NWC Faculty. India—Basic Facts. Population: 1.189 Billion Age structure (0-14 yrs) 187,450,635 males; 165,415,758 females Life expectancy at birth: 66.8 years

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PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges

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  1. PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges TSDM 21 Source: NWC Faculty

  2. India—Basic Facts • Population: 1.189 Billion • Age structure (0-14 yrs) • 187,450,635 males; 165,415,758 females • Life expectancy at birth: 66.8 years • Head of Government: Prime Minister Manmohan SINGH; Chief of State: President Pratibha Devisingh PATIL • GDP (PPP basis): $4.060 trillion (compare with China [$10.090 trillion] United States [$14.660 trillion]) • GDP Real Growth Rate: 10.4% (2010 est.) • Labor force: 478.3 million • Labor force by occupation: • Agriculture: 52% • Industry: 14% • Services: 34% • Population below the poverty line: 25% • Public debt: 51.9% of GDP NWC/TSDM

  3. World’s Largest Economies: 8 are Located within the Asia-Pacific region India (5th Largest) *numbers are based on purchasing power parity and are 2010 year estimates; accessed from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html?countryName=India&countryCode=in&regionCode=sas&rank=5#in NWC/TSDM

  4. India: Mass Protests against Government Corruption (Jan 2011) NWC/TSDM

  5. Illegal Migration/Trans-border Crime Concerns: India builds border fence next to Bangladesh (Tripura) NWC/TSDM

  6. Kashmir: Key Flashpoint in South Asia NWC/TSDM

  7. Pakistani Helicopter patrols Line of Control (near Siachen)—in Pakistani-administered Kashmir NWC/TSDM

  8. ASEAN Basics (part 1) • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was founded on August 8, 1967 • With adoption of the ASEAN Declaration in Bangkok, Thailand • Originally, ASEAN had 5 members (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) • Expanded to its current 10 (with addition of Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos, Burma and Cambodia) • “Formation of the organization reflected an attempt to forge independent foreign policies in the context of Cold War pressures.” • On February 24, 1976, ASEAN created the ASEAN Secretariat, located in Jakarta, Indonesia (headed by a Secretary-General, who serves a five-year term) NWC/TSDM

  9. ASEAN Basics (part 2) • The ASEAN Charter • The new ASEAN Charter went into effect on December 15, 2007, superseding the ASEAN Declaration; the Charter is effectively a constitution for ASEAN, committing the member states to create an “ASEAN Community in furtherance of peace, progress and prosperity of its peoples.” • Some new goals include: (1) maintenance of peace, stability and security in the region; (2) promotion of greater political, security, economic and socio-cultural cooperation; (3) preservation of SE Asia as an are free of weapons of mass destruction (including nuclear weapons); (4) creation of a just, democratic and harmonious environment in the region NWC/TSDM

  10. ASEAN Basics (part 3) • ASEAN has a number of subsidiary or associated groups, including: • ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) • Established in 1994, with 26 Asian and Pacific states (plus European Union): “to facilitate dialogue on political and security matters in the region” • ASEAN + 3 (APT) • Includes ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea; created in 1997 partly as response to Asian economic crisis, and partly as a way to balance northeast Asian power in the security dialogue process with ASEAN • East Asia Summit (EAS) • Created in 2005: includes ASEAN +3 members, plus Australia, New Zealand and India (Japan and other countries wanted the non-East Asian powers included to balance against China); also referred to as ASEAN + 6 • East Asian Community (EAC) • Still in the early, conceptual state: vision is to create an EU-style association of Asian nations. • APEC (separate but parallel organization to ASEAN) • APEC = Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation • APEC “works to facilitate economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific region.” (It has 21 member countries, including many non-East Asian countries, including Peru, Chile, Mexico, United States, Russian Federation) • ASEAN is one of three official observers in APEC NWC/TSDM

  11. How the Economic Crisis (97/98) significantly changed China’s geopolitical position in Asia • China refrained from devaluing its currency (which helped contain the crisis) • China’s credentials as a “responsible rising power” were strengthened • China was able to shape the creation of the ASEAN + 3 (APT) framework Shenzhen Container Port NWC/TSDM

  12. ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, S. Korea), known as “APT” • The APT was established in 1997 (during economic crisis); includes ASEAN members + China, Japan, S. Korea • Designed to foster cooperation in 20 areas, ranging from security issues, to transnational crime, tourism, health, environment, science and technology • http://www.aseansec.org/19105.htm • ASEAN and China have signed 5 documents in the political/security field (including on subjects such as South China Sea and nontraditional security) • China wants to create free trade zone within APT framework, while Japan wants to expand number of countries NWC/TSDM

  13. East Asian Summit (EAS) • Designed to foster exchange of views on regional political and economic issues • First EAS was held on 14 December 2005 • East Asian Summit could provide the framework for future East Asian Community • In addition to APT, EAS includes India, Australia and New Zealand (believed to have been included to ‘balance’ Chinese power); 2011: US and Russia will join (or have been invited) • China’s view: multilateral institutions in SE Asia can advance Beijing’s foreign policy interests (not viewed any longer as constraint to PRC power) NWC/TSDM

  14. Where is terrorism in Asia?* (It may not be where you think) *Data covers time period 1/1/10 to 12/31/10; data source: National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) database: https://wits.nctc.gov/FederalDiscoverWITS/index.do?N=0 NWC/TSDM

  15. Thailand’s Insurgency in the South • Limited mainly to 3 provinces: Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat (near Thai-Malaysia border) • Thailand annexed the 3 provinces in 1902, although people are Muslim and speak Malay dialect • More than 4,300 people have died (since 2004) NWC/TSDM

  16. Insurgency in Southern Philippines Key groups: • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) • Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) • Abu Sayyaf • New People’s Army NWC/TSDM MILF members

  17. Violence in Xinjiang (China)(burned bus in 5 July 2009 riots) NWC/TSDM

  18. Maoist Insurgency in India NWC/TSDM

  19. China is Emerging as the Most Significant Player in Global Energy Markets Source: International Energy Outlook 2010, Dept of Energy, Energy Information Agency NWC/TSDM

  20. China’s SLOC Dilemma • “马六甲海峡是中国海上石油生命线, 它与中国经济安全息息想关” – […the Malacca Strait is China’s maritime oil lifeline, for China’s economic security it is akin to breathing itself.] – XDJC, December 2004 • “当前国内进口石油的95%要通过海运, 其中80%要经过马六甲海峡 ... 马六甲...易于封锁.. 但中国海军却鞭长莫及, 一旦发生以外, 将给中国的能源安全造成极大危害...” -- [Currently, 95% of China's oil imports are transported by sea; of this, 80% transit the Malacca Strait. This strait is easy to blockade ... but [ this mission] is beyond the power of China's Navy, so that if this occurs, then China's resource security will be gravely compromised.] – JZWQ, June 2006 NWC/TSDM

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