Weapons Proliferation and Global Security

1. Weapons Proliferation and Global Security

2. Proliferation – “the rapid increase in the number and destructive capability of armaments [weapons].” Security – Freedom from risk or danger, safety. Global Security – integrated relationship between globalization and its impact on individual, national, or regional security. Definitions:

3. Weapons Proliferation – Key Terms • Vertical Proliferation – Development and stockpiling of armaments in one country • Horizontal Proliferation – Spread of weapons or weapons technology across country borders • Conventional Weapons – Majority of military arsenals (ex: guns, tanks, bullets, planes, ships) • Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) – special weapons that have a devastating effect when used even in small numbers (ex: nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons)

4. Proliferation Matrix

5. Dangers of Conventional Arms Buildup (Matrix, Type I) • More arms = increased possibility of conflicts • Arms races lead to conflicts (ex: World War I) • Sophisticated conventional weapons (ex: IEDs in Iraq, Predator drone)

6. More money for military = less $ on social welfare programs (ex: education) Military Expenditures (US$ Billions at Constant 2003 Values) The Social Costs of Arms Buildups

7. More Statistics: • By 2005, US military spending reached $478 billion, or 48% of total world military expenditures • In 2003, the US was ranked first in the world in military spending and thirteenth on infant mortality rates (behind countries such as Canada, Slovenia, and Cyprus)

8. Horizontal Proliferation of Conventional Weapons (Matrix, Type II) • Arms Dealers: *In 2006, the US, Russia, and the United Kingdom were responsible for 71% of all arms deals. (Ex: US 36 F-16 fighter aircrafts to Pakistan; Russia’s tanks to Algeria) • Arms Customers (friends and foes) *Largest markets for the US – the Middle East and Asia (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea, India, Japan) • Deadly returns (US sold weapons to Iraq) • Civil Wars (legal and illegal arms deals contributed to civil wars in Afghanistan, Colombia, Congo, Sierra Leone)

9. The global arms trade has grown by more than 20% in volume over the last five years. Imports to the Middle East have increased by 38% China and India remain the world’s biggest recipients of weapons, with Russia supplying the vast bulk to both countries In 2007-2008, South Korea was the largest arms importer (supplied by the US) in response to a perceived threat from North Korea

10. Vertical Proliferation of WMDs (Matrix, Type III) Types of WMDs: A).Nuclear Weapons – devices with tremendous explosive power based on atomic fission or fusion B).Chemical Weapons – poisons that incapacitate, injure, or kill through their toxic effects on the body. They can be lethal when vaporized and inhaled in very small amounts, or when absorbed into the bloodstream through skin contact. (ex: mustard – gas, nerve gas – Sarin) C).Biological Weapons – microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, or fungi that can be used to cause illness or kill the intended target (ex: anthrax)

11. Why build WMDs? • Security *Perceived threat and lack of trust (Example: The Cold War era, India and Pakistan) • Prestige *National pride and influence (Example: Attention given to North Korea)

12. Horizontal Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (Matrix, Type IV) • The Nuclear Club (countries with known stockpiles of nuclear weapons) • High – risk proliferants (ex: Iran and North Korea) • Countries that gave up their nuclear club membership (South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Libya, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine)

13. The Nuclear Club Countries Nuclear Stockpiles:

14. High-Risk Proliferants: • Iran and North Korea:

15. Chemical and Biological Weapons Countries Suspected to Possess Chemical and/or Biological Weapons Capabilities

16. Issues related to WMD Terrorism • Horizontal spread of WMDs increase the chance of a future terrorist attack. (Al-Qaida – actively seeks WMDS) • Challenge of keeping track of the nuclear arsenal (former Soviet Union) • Possibility of a “dirty bomb” attack (dirty bomb – combination of radioactive materials with conventional explosives)

17. Global Solutions to Control WMDs: The Non-Proliferation Regime • Historic background • The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty • Non-Proliferation initiatives

18. Historic Background: • President Truman’s proposal to place all nuclear materials and technology under the UN control (1940s) • The Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1960s) • The Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America (1967)

19. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty • Open for signatures in 1968 • Ambitious goals for both vertical and horizontal proliferation Examples: Article 1, Article 2, and Article 6

20. Non-Proliferation Initiatives:

21. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty • Advocates ban on all nuclear testing • Open for signatures in 1996 • To become international law - all 44 countries that are known to possess nuclear reactors must sign • India and Pakistan have not signed the treaty (US Senate also rejected it)

22. Limitations to Controlling the Spread of WMDs • State sovereignty • “Peaceful purposes” argument • Supply concern – “trigger list” – difficult to control and enforce

23. Global Security, Proliferation and Preemption • Case Study: The IRAQ WAR • Will diplomacy work with North Korea and Iran?

24. QUESTIONS TO PONDER: • Is the proliferation of conventional weapons a challenge that the global community can ever meet? Why or why not? • Should government leaders use military force to stop would – be proliferants from threatening their security? Explain. • Are you an optimist or a pessimist on the question of weapons proliferation and global security? Explain.

25. Global Security • “Global security references the integrated relationship between globalization and its impact on individual, national, and regional security. • Large and small states are threatened by the vulnerabilities created through interdependence …” Snarr and Snarr, pp.77-78

26. What is the Definition of Power in International Relations? • Power – political or national strength; an ability to do something or act.

27. Five Ways of “Power” Application: • Hard power • Soft power • Asymmetric power • Information power • The power of nature

28. Hard power • Definition: “those assets that determine the position of a state relative to its peers in the international system, including geography, population, and military capabilities.” • Assumptions – anarchic (“dog eat dog”) world, each state’s primary responsibility is security, mistrust of other states. • Based on resources and ability to project power • Globalization and competition for resources impact hard power of individual states

29. Soft Power • Definition: “the general reputation of a country in the international system, combined with its ability to achieve international outcomes through persuasion (diplomacy) rather than military force.” • Exercise of hard power could result in significant loss of soft power • “Soft power balancing” – actions that do not directly challenge the hard military power of a strong state, but instead delay, complicate, and increase the costs to that strong state of using its hard military power.

30. Asymmetric Power • Definition: “the disproportionate capability of weak states and nonstate actors to challenge powerful states in the international system.” • Examples: terrorist attacks, videotaped beheadings, computer viruses.

31. Information Power • Definition: capacity of popular movements, NGOs, and individual actors to engage and impact security outcomes by using media and other technology based communication devices. • Issues to consider: (a) censorship and the internet (b) communication infrastructure

32. The Power of Nature • Definition: Impact of global environmental problems on state capabilities. • Issues to consider: (a) Rapid population growth (b) Access to clean water (c) Global warming

33. Global Security Challenge - Terrorism • Global war on terror – can it be won? • New aspects of global terrorist threat - Transnational - Use of “powers” by global terrorist networks

34. Education and Action • Education – key to national and global security