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POS Summary Report

POS Summary Report

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POS Summary Report

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  1. POS Summary Report Nick Bond Mike Bosilovich

  2. OCB Discussion • Extended discussion on collaborations • Potentially with AMOC • Not in a position (knowledge of needs or independent expertise) to propose a WG at present; open to further discussion • With better knowledge of specific issues related to physics can provide help, especially on aspects related to sub-surface ocean properties. • After May 2012 Reanalysis Conference, may make sense to propose a WG on reanalysis involving OCB community (tracer-conserving analyses)

  3. Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) • Workshop: Reanalyses improving • Impact of observation system changes • Integrating Earth systems • Issues raised here • Budget imbalances are detrimental to carbon cycling and other uses (Action?) • Users should make use of increments (residuals) • Need to exploit multitude of reanalyses: rough estimate of uncertainty (e.g. Yan Xue’s evaluation) • IESA Working Group: Wait for outcome of the WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses

  4. Terrestrial Regional North American Hydroclimate Experiment (TRACE) • Discussions forming out of Pan-GEWEX (2010) • Objectives: Providing regional scale climate predictions for stresses on water supply and management • Likely developing observational resources, hydrologic modeling • Needs global scale predictions for large scale features • Ultimately, overlap in numerous topics with US CLIVAR panels • Reaching out to USCLIVAR, bridging GEWEX work a favorable effort; Fundable (Rosen) • Actions: Provide USCLIVAR with workshop report • Joint meeting with USCLIVAR at OSC • anyone interested in being added to telecons • Some comments to take back; USCLIVAR position?

  5. ENSO Diversity WG Prospectus (Capotondi, Kirtman) • Started prospectus after last Summit: Focus on central Pacific ENSO, Strong WG formed • Review literature on: examine evaluation methods and shortcomings for broader perspective • Parse differences and examine mechanisms (link with GW signal, NPGO, hurricanes, extreme events) • Online documentation development • Tasks • Longitudinal position of the warming (obs) • Examine CMIP5 performance on ENSO diversity • Deliver: White paper to BAMS; Workshop in 2nd yr • Need more clarity on conventional versus unusual ENSO and the characterization metrics • POS Supports WG proposal goes forward

  6. Synthesis of Upper Ocean heat Budgets in Eastern Basins WG Prospectus (de Szoeke) • Motivation: Modeled (SST and fluxes) errors against the buoy obs; warming oceans too much (eastern boundary currents) • Need consistent approach to estimating the heat budget with community involvement • Prospectus in formative state • Working Group names need to be invited: Encourage community consensus on the way forward

  7. Monitoring Climate Indices from Ocean Reanalyses Review (Xue) • Using subsurface ocean data from ocean reanalyses • A real-time ensemble could provide a useful tool with uncertainty estimate • Developed from OceanObs ‘09 international group • CPC GODAS Monitoring Page • Coordinating with NOAA Fisheries looking at coastal upwelling • Objectives: identify gaps in obs system, DA systems, IC for ocean init.; develop real time climate indices • Should be a major benefit to Ocean reanalysis developers; how to encourage feedback to developers? • Limitation: not all ocean reanalyses available in real time • Going Forward: Write a letter of support from USCLIVAR to CLIVAR; and data developers – encourage data availability; populate oceans section

  8. Extremes: Societal sectors • Heatwaves (interaction with drought), cold spell, record events, extreme precipitation • ENSO/Land modulation of extremes • Model representation of precipitation PDF is different from that of observations • Inline with USCLIVAR objectives and developing a community effort • Looking Forward: Interest in developing a working group prospectus – (Sasha, Matt, Mike) Links with PPAI; Also ENSO Diversity WG