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Birmingham’s population

Birmingham’s population. Greg Ball. Birmingham’s Population. About one million Large numbers of students and overseas in-migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time residents’ Recent ONS changes increased population estimate by 2,400 (0.24%) Net gain from student inflows adjusted upwards

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Birmingham’s population

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  1. Birmingham’s population Greg Ball

  2. Birmingham’s Population • About one million • Large numbers of students and overseas in-migrants. Growing numbers of ‘part-time residents’ • Recent ONS changes increased population estimate by 2,400 (0.24%) • Net gain from student inflows adjusted upwards • Net gain from international adjusted downwards • Population aged 20-24 increase by 4% • Main concern IM, but problems in local distribution less acute than in London

  3. Revised estimates for 2006 • Large gains in student age groups • Reductions in most other groups • Some concern that to and from study adjustments unbalanced

  4. NKM Estimate for 2006 • Matching administrative datasets • Hampered by lack of LLPG at time • “Confirmed population” total similar to ONS (pre-revision) • 25-75k possible addition – unmatched records.

  5. NKM & ONS 2006 Estimates • ONS has many more 15-24 (students) • NKM higher in many ‘non-problem’ ages • Greater differences from revised MYE

  6. Males and Females • ONS had 7,000 fewer males, but 9,000 more females • ONS has more males & females aged 15-24 • ONS has fewer males in 30-64 ages • ONS has fewer children – male and female

  7. Are estimates too low? • Could be 25-75k (2-7%) higher? • Definitional, quality and timing issues • NKM undercounts students • Matching problems • Students not registering with NHS? • Children and older males more puzzling

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