A Medical Issue: Diagnosis and Response

1. “Rogue Climate Trends and Projections”Providence Hospital, February 2014Alan Journet Ph.D.http://socan.infoalanjournet@gmail.com 541-301-4107Presentation on web site: click ‘Projects’ – select ‘Presentation Project’scroll down to listed presentation schedule

2. Risk Assessment….A Personal Example 100 Prob. Of Survival 50 IV 40 III II 30 1995AML: Notreatment 20 I 10 12 NOW 2 24 TIME IN MONTHS A Medical Issue:Diagnosis and Response

3. Local Patterns & Projections

4. NASA – GISS including 2013 Since 1970s - 1.3⁰F Since 1880s - app. 2.0⁰F Since 1750s - >2.0⁰F 1880 -1900 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif

5. Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf

6. Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

7. 1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections

8. Projected Increases 2035-2045 Average1.6 – 4⁰F(51.6 – 53.8⁰F) Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F(39.1 – 41.7⁰F) Summer1 – 6⁰F(64.4 – 69.5⁰F) August 1 – 7.5⁰F(67.1 – 73.5⁰F) 2075-2085 Average4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F) Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F(41.5 – 44.5⁰F) Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F(69.1 – 75.4⁰F) August6.7 – 16.8⁰F(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)

9. Medford 100 Degree Days History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

10. Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100oF Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

11. Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic = - 6.2% US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

12. Rogue Valley Precipitation Trends and Projections

13. 46 Projected PrecipitationSeasonal Pattern –HighEmissions Scenarios = ‘Business As Usual’ http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment

14. Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections 2006-2035 2036-2065 2066-2095 – Business asusual Green: Decreasing Drought  7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought  over 60 months more per 30 yrs http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf

15. Local Patterns & Projections

16. Medford Annual Snowfall - Inches Historic US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

17. Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft Projected to drop to < 20% of historic levels by late century

18. Declining snowpack leads to Reduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs. Red = decreasing snow waterBlue = increasing snow water http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

19. Local Patterns & Projections

20. Local Patterns & Projections

21. Snow vs Rainfall Trend • Current trend towards precipitation falling as rain at lower elevations rather than snow at higher elevations

22. Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitation Events by 2090s IncreasedHeavyDownpourDays ReducedLightDrizzleDays Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

23. Local Patterns & Projections

24. Medford Frost-Free Days Historic US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

25. Local Patterns & Projections

26. Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West Longitude Latitude Impact on stream flow – timing and extent Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

27. Projected Stream Flow Timing in Western States Historic Stream Flow Timing in Western States Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

28. Earlier Peak Stream flow - Lower Late Stream Flow Example from Washington 3.6 to 5.4°F increase. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

29. Local Patterns & Projections

30. Western Wildfires & Climate Change http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

31. Western Wildfires & Climate Change • 0.5⁰C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year.(http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html ) Over this period, wildfire frequency was high whenannual average temperature was high and snowmelt was early.

32. Western Wildfires & Climate Change http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

33. Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream COLD COLD WARM WARM WARM http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may-be-affecting-the-jet-stream/

34. AN INTRODUCTION http://socan.info Co-Facilitators: Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com MEETINGS: Last Tuesday of the month (February 25th) ‘Do The Math – The Movie’ 6:00 pm Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

35. Mission & Goal Statement The mission of SOCAN is: • To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change • To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and consequences of climate change • To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action Our Goal: Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.