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The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World

The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World. Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development Annual Meeting June 4, 2007 Elizabeth Leahy Population Action International. Demographics of Youth.

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The Shape of Things to Come: Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World

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  1. The Shape of Things to Come:Why Age Structure Matters to a Safer, More Equitable World Association for International Agriculture and Rural Development Annual Meeting June 4, 2007 Elizabeth Leahy Population Action International

  2. Demographics of Youth • Largest generation of young people in history • 3.5 billion people ages 0-29 worldwide • 87% in less developed regions • By 2025, all growth in world youth population will occur in less developed regions • Pressures on natural resources, rural  urban migration

  3. Age Structure Defined • Importance of the demographic transition for development • Share of people younger than 30 in a population compared to share of people age 60+ • Each country is one of 4 major types of age structures: 1. Very Young (>67% under 30) 2. Youthful (60-67% under 30) 3. Transitional (45-60% under 30) 4. Mature (<45% under 30)

  4. Key Findings • Population age structure impacts countries’ stability, governance, economic development • Very young and youthful age structures present greatest challenges to development • Age structures are dynamic and can be influenced and shaped through policies

  5. Very Young Age Structures 62 countries: most of sub-Saharan Africa, Syria,Iraq,Afghanistan, 3 countries in Central America, Haiti, Laos High mortality and fertility rates

  6. Youthful Age Structures 27 countries: Bangladesh, Bolivia, Jordan, Morocco, Nepal, Peru, Philippines, Saudi Arabia Fertility rates declining, but still above replacement level

  7. Transitional Age Structures 40 countries: Brazil, China, India, Israel, Indonesia, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Vietnam Middle of demographic transition

  8. The Demographic Dividend • Fertility decline creates economic opportunities • Greater per capita spending and savings • Higher wages and increased capital investment • “Window of opportunity” lasts 40-60 years • Countries with transitional structures are nearing end of window of opportunity; youthful structures at beginning

  9. Mature Age Structures 47 countries: Nearly all of Europe, Canada, Cuba, Russia, South Korea, Australia,U.S. Low mortality and fertility rates

  10. Age Structure and Conflict 80% of all new conflicts occurred in countries in which at least 60% of the population was under age 30.

  11. Age Structure and Governance Nearly 90% of countries with very young structures had autocratic or weakly democratic governments. More than 80% of countries with mature age structures were fully democratic.

  12. Mexico 1975 - 2005 Transitional 59% under 30 Very Young 73% under 30

  13. World Age Structures 2005

  14. Policy Recommendations • Achieve more balanced age structures: - Comprehensive policies - Adequate funding - Political commitment • Improve access to family planning • Education and employment opportunities for women and youth

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