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An “alternative presentation” of trade by product

An “alternative presentation” of trade by product. Agenda Item : 5f. OECD Statistics Directorate Bettina.Wistrom@oecd.org . 3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD. Outline. No unified presentation of trade in goods/services

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An “alternative presentation” of trade by product

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  1. An “alternative presentation” of trade by product Agenda Item : 5f OECD Statistics Directorate Bettina.Wistrom@oecd.org 3rd WPTGS meeting 4-6 October 2010, OECD

  2. Outline • No unified presentation of trade in goods/services • Why a proposal for an alternative presentation of trade by product. • The conceptual correspondence: a tentative example C1- Trade by product correspondence table C2-Correspondence on trade in goods side C21- Removing duplicates C22-Estimating distribution services C3-Correspondence on trade in services side C4- Merge both to present trade by product and industry. D. Conclusion/questions

  3. A. No unified presentation of trade in goods and services • Trade in goods described by HS 2007 and SITC rev 4 – physical movement of goods cross frontiers • Trade in services – BOP/EBOPS 2010 – resident non-resident transactions – goods is “general merchandise” – change of ownership. • The detail is in one (IMTS for goods) or the other (BOP for services) but not both

  4. B. Why a proposal for an “alternative presentation” of trade by product. • The needs for relating trade statistics to SUT and IO is an argument for producing integrated statistics on trade in product by activity • This could also improve analytical links to production, employment, enterprise, AMN, and direct investment statistics.

  5. A tentative correspondence at a modest level of disaggregation • Only “current” classifications are used. • Only at the section level of ISIC rev 3.1 and at the higher level of EBOPS data. • Only exports are considered

  6. C. The conceptual correspondence: a tentative example • Data from OECD ITCS and TIS databases (reference year 2007) loaded in access database. • Service : Use (and develop) the correspondence table between ISIC rev 3.1 and EBOPS 2002 using CPC1.1 as a link(source MSITS 2002) • Goods : use the existing correspondence between HS 2002, CPC ver. 1.1, ISIC rev 3.1 • Merge to obtain trade by product (CPC 1.1) and by industry (ISIC rev 3.1)

  7. Special focus on two “cross cutting” items: • Distribution services understand the role of these in trade, important in context of GATS - estimated using basic assumptions of BEA on US Trade • Software licences registered in Goods (to get a sense of size of these of interest to NA that qualify as GFCF) – proxied with HS 852439 disc for laser reading system. Manufacturing services on inputs owned by others not dealt with

  8. C1- The trade by product correspondence table 1/2

  9. The correspondence table 2/2

  10. C2-Correspondence on trade in goods side • No one to one correspondence between ISIC and HS – CPC. • One HS series can consequently be allocated to (or produced by) several industries, hence generating some double countings when producing a trade by industry table. • Some “duplicate” HS series do then need to be removed.

  11. C21-Removing “duplicates” in OECD merchandise trade data 1/2 • 35 commodity duplicates (out of 80 at section level) are related to ISIC section B (fishing) i.e. same commodity linked to ISIC classes 0501 (Fishing) and 0502 (Aquaculture) • HS item 852439 “Discs for laser reading systems” linked to section D (manufacture) & section K (real estate, renting & business activities) in class 7221 software publishing.

  12. C22-Removing duplicates in OECD merchandise trade data 2/2

  13. OECD Merchandise exports by ISIC section (2007)

  14. OECD merchandise exports by ISIC (2007)

  15. Estimating distribution services included in merchandise by ISIC (2007)

  16. C3-Correspondence on trade in services side • No one to one correspondence with ISIC. • EBOPS only partly product based • Working at an aggregate level allows to calculate a total OECD

  17. OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)

  18. OECD services exports by ISIC section (2007)

  19. C4- Merge both to present trade by product and industry

  20. OECD trade by ISIC sections (2007)

  21. Impact of allocating DVDs to industry K instead of industry D.

  22. OECD exports by main activity

  23. OECD trade by ISIC

  24. D- Conclusion & next steps • “Alternative presentation” is still at a preliminary stage. • Some of main challenges (manufacturing services) of future revision not dealt with here. • As no one to one correspondence is possible many calculation of estimates necessary and metadata should be studied carefully, • Next step: extend the example to imports • Present the Industry section at the division level • Benchmark with existing surveys to give more importance to Secondary production of services of industries primarily producing goods.

  25. Questions to the WPTGS • Any experience in estimating distribution services included in merchandise trade? • How should perpetual Licences to use software-non customized- provided on disk be treated. Is HS 852439 (Discs for laser reading systems) a good proxy ?  • How could manufacturing services be treated in future?

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