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Forecasting Solar wind Parameters

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This study presents the forecasting of solar wind parameters alongside the monitoring and analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) detected on January 23, 2013. Utilizing coronagraph and X-ray flux data, we identified the characteristics of a Halo CME, including its angular width, velocity, and predicted start time at 21.5 Rs. We calculated a CME velocity of 541 km/s and conducted a comparative analysis with ENLIL and CCMC results for validation. Future steps include monitoring Kp index changes and running IPS Tomography for further insights.

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Forecasting Solar wind Parameters

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  1. Forecasting Solar wind Parameters Ji-hye LEE Giang Tran Shinji Hirooka NurulSyazwaniRohizat

  2. Outlook • Objective • Today Solar Monitoring • Detecting the CME • Determining the CME properties • Find the location • Measure the angular width • Calculate the velocity • Calculate the start time in 21.5Rs • Compare the value • result

  3. Objective • Monitoring the solar. • Forecasting the solar wind parameter on Jan 23 2013. • Comparing our result and CCMC.

  4. Solar Monitoring

  5. Detecting the CME – using coronagraph, x-ray flux 2013. 01. 23 around 14:00:00 We think that the CME is Halo CME.

  6. CME Properties We need to find the CME properties. Cloud start date in inner boundary( 21.5Rs) Cloud start time in inner boundary( 21.5Rs) Latitude of Cloud center Longitude of Cloud center Radius of cloud Cloud velocity

  7. Finding location

  8. Finding location Latitude : 20 Longitude: -24

  9. Finding the angular width 80

  10. Finding the angular width 70

  11. Determine the angular width of CME • Angular width = average (STEREO A & STEREO B) = 75 degree Use the half of angular width. Radius of CME = 37.5 degree.

  12. Determine the Velocity of CME D1 = 1.4 cm D2 = 2.1 cm dD = 0.7 cm T1 = 15: 24: 24 T2 = 15: 54: 24 dT = 30 min -> 1800 s

  13. Calculate the velocity of CME • dT = 1800 s • Calculate the distance • dD = 0.7 cm • 2 Rs -> 1 cm • Real distance = 2Rs *0.7 (Rs = 6.960*10^5 km) = 9.744 * 10^5 km Velocity of CME = 541 km/s

  14. Calculate the start date & time in 21.5 Rs • We need the start time in 21.5Rs. • T2 = 15: 54: 24 , D2 = 2.1 * 2Rs. • Start time = T2+dt • dt= (boundary radius[21.5Rs] – d2)/ V = (21.5Rs – 4.2Rs)/541km/s, (Rs = 6.960*10^5 km) = 22256.561 s = 6.18h start time of ENLIL = T2 + dt = 22 : 04: 24

  15. CME Properties for ENLIL CCMC use special tool Longitude = -5 Latitude = 37 Velocity = 610 km/s Radius = 40 degree Start date = 2013. 01. 23 Start time = 20: 17 Our result Longitude = - 20 degree Latitude = 24 degree Velocity = 541 km/s Radius = 37.5 degree Start date = 2013. 01. 23 Start time = 22: 04

  16. Result - Density

  17. Result - Velocity

  18. Result Arrived time : Jan 26 11:27

  19. Further more • We will compare in-situ data and forecasting. • We will monitor change of the Kp . • We will try to run the IPS Tomography. • We want to compare the ENLIL and IPS tomography.

  20. Thank you for your attention !!

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