Research Methods and Methods for Research

1. Research Methods and Methods for Research • There are a large variety of tools of interest for National Security and Intelligence Analysis • Some generic classes might be useful to organize them • These are often ambiguous and not mutually exclusive

2. Classes of Analytic tools • Quantitative vs. Qualitative • Generally used with reference to the data being analyzed, not the method • Quantitative Analysis

3. Quantitative Methods • Statistics • Mathematical Models • Operations research • Examples • T-test • Regression • Contingency Tables • Logit/probit • SEQ • And many, many more

4. Qualitative Methods • Based on Observation & nomenclature, rather than counts & measures • Often few cases • Examples • Content Analysis • Ethnography • Discourse analysis • Focus groups, Delphi, Q sorts • Participant observation • Interviews

5. Mixed Methods • Using qualitiative methods to expalin quantitative data

6. Statistics • Models based on • Probability • Least squared error • Likelihood • How likely is it that a particular model produces some set of data

7. Statistical Models are concerned with • Central Tendency • Representative examples • What is the center? • Variability/Dispersion • How much does data vary about the typical value? • How likely are we to observe something by chance alone?

8. Statistical Models imply an underlying math • Geometric model • Linear regression = proportional relationship • Logical model • Often classification models • Simplified models

9. Tools for Intelligence • Generic Tools • Lists – Ben Franklins method • Curves & distributions (pictures) • Benchmarks • Patterns • Statistics • Time series • Maps

10. Relationship Models • Organizational Charts • Link Models • 6 Degrees of Osama Bin Laden • Vanessa Redgrave – • Yasser Arafat • Anwar Sadat • Ayman Al-Zawari • Osama Bin Laden • Social Network models

11. Distributions • Distributions are tools for assessing likelihood, given the characteristics of a distribution • Distributions have parameters • Normal (Mean, SD)

12. Social Network Analysis

13. The number of possible relationships exist as the number of variables increase

14. Interaction Opportunities • The interconnectedness exhibited in the previous figure also points to interaction opportunity loss in political systems

16. Matrix Models • Process Models • Systems • General Systems Theory

17. Psychological Models • Profiles • Psychological • Decision Making • Scenarios

18. Process Models • Systems models • Basic Input Output model • IO models of the economy • General Systems Theory • Simulations • Equations (stats & Ecomometric Models)

19. More Math • Probability Models • Queuing theory • Reliability Assessment • Bayesian Models • Risk Analysis • Cost-Benefit • Operations research

20. Data mining • Data mining is in vogue • Let the data speak to you • Pattern search and recognition • An information extraction activity whose goal is to discover hidden facts contained in databases. Using a combination of machine learning, statistical analysis, modeling techniques and database technology, data mining finds patterns and subtle relationships in data and infers rules that allow the prediction of future results. Typical applications include market segmentation, customer profiling, fraud detection, evaluation of retail promotions, and credit risk analysis.

21. Neural Networks • Machines can learn • Artificial neural networks (ANN) are algorithms simulating the functioning of human neurons and may be used for pattern recognition problems, e.g., to establish a quantitative structure-activity relationship.

22. Intelligence: Data • Intelligence can be: • It can be raw data (E.G. Photos of Russian missiles in Cuba) • It can be inference: • Cylindrical tubes of a certain size and a Star of David road pattern observed in Cuba that resemble Soviet missile sites suggest that the Soviet’s have placed missiles in Cuba. • The presence of soccer fields at those sites suggest that there are non-Cuban personnel living there.

23. Types of Intelligence • IMINT (Image Intelligence) • SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) • COMINT (Communications Intelligence) • TELINT (Telemetry Intelligence) • MASINT (Measurement and Signatures Intelligence) • OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) • HUMINT(Human Intelligence)

24. Human Intelligence • The most costly • The slowest • The least reliable • The most important

25. HUMINT - Methods • Liaison • Elicitation • Émigré’s & defectors • Clandestine • Spies, moles • Sampling • Materiel Acquisition

26. COMINT • Microphone & Audio • Bugs • Radio • Telephone • Internet (email, web)

27. IMINT • Photo & Video • Imaging Radar • Electro-optical • Broad spectrum imaging

28. MASINT • Remote sensing • Sensors • SOSUS array • Space Radar Identification • Small object identification

29. OSINT • Publicly available sources • Newspapers • TV • Official Communiqués • Information Overload • This is the province of the “area expert”

30. The Intelligence Community

31. Some Major Intelligence Briefings • The Presidents Daily Briefing (PDB) • Tailored to presidents wishes • Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB) • Daily CIA newspaper • Senior Executive & Militray Officials and Legislate oversight

32. Some More Major Intelligence Briefings • The Secretary’s Morning Summary • Bureau of Intelligence and Research (State Dept) • The Military Intelligence Digest • Defense Intelligence Agency • National Intelligence Estimates • Produced by National Intelligence Council • All agency input • Extensive documents with long development time-frames (months to years)

33. Other Methods for Intelligence Analysis • Link Analysis • Network Analysis • Data Mining • Timeline Analysis • Transaction Analysis • Telephone Analysis