黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 2010/11/07 ingchiehtw@yahoo.tw

1. Emergencies, the global political leaders Contemporary political figures will become a human "sinners" or "Heroes"? Scenario planning, business management concepts to try to be Earth's human co-existence of the Road for future One of Taiwan's business management consultant, to the "Global 244 leaders of political entities work together to create the world's great business“ offer strategies 黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 2010/11/07 ingchiehtw@yahoo.com.tw

2. Contemporary political figures will become a human "sinners" or "Heroes"? • Contemporary political figures will become a human "sinners" Contemporary global political figure in the history of human development will become a sinner World political figures, 5 years, Restructuring the United Nations as "the unified management of the Earth Council," Humans have the opportunity to co-exist in the Earth sustainable development. However, only 5 years of setup time. 5 years later, The United Nations is not transformed into "global unified management committee" to co-ordinate the development of the unified management of the Earth, Living environment of the planet will be out of order. The human environment due to strike back the scourge of the earth, Earth will enter an irreversible vicious cycle, war, pestilence, famine, drought, floods, hurricanes and other disasters will take turns sweeping the planet. Spiritual civilization, humans will return to the savage beast. Contemporary global political figure, will become the world's humans as sinners. • Contemporary political figures will become the hero of mankindWorld political figures, 5 years,Restructuring the United Nations "Earth unified management committee"Humans have the opportunity to co-exist in the Earth sustainable development.Contemporary global political figure in the history of human development will become a hero.

3. Abstract • In this paper, scenario planning, business management ideas and experiences and try to co-exist in the earth to be human in the future the road. In this paper, co-ordinate global human 244 political entities, joint transform the United Nations, innovation, establishment of “The Global Unity Development Management Committee", in line with the global expansion of the establishment of a democratic republic of The Earth Council and The World Central Government, to co-ordinate individual countries can not deal with the global issues and governance, development and implementation of human development, the common law world, the global harmonization of legislation, according to a new way of life implementation of human unity, jointly safeguard global human development in the republic, the entire planet for the future way of human coexistence Earth . • In a highly uncertain environment, this plan attempts to make global humanity, the Earth did not happen before the crisis exploded, and imagine the possible scenarios of access to a rehearsal to motivate a large global human integration "organizational learning", the formation of a large organization without bloodshed changes in human organization together to create the highest realm of sustainable coexistence on earth.

4. Preface • Scientific evidence that global greenhouse gases, have started to decline in 2015 to control the increase will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius, or else the Earth will enter an irreversible vicious cycle, including war, pestilence, famine, drought, floods, hurricanes and other disasters will take turns sweeping the planet. • Human only 5 years to combat the growing global greenhouse gas emissions. • In this paper, scenario planning, business management ideas and experiences, discuss the future of human co-existence in the way the Earth.

5. Content Scenario planning and some experience of business management concepts and an overview of: Management strategy over the past century and tools business use technology to create operational performance, make management, continued to evolve. Business performance continued to improve key insight into market opportunities in the master taking it; timely and appropriate, adjusting the organizational and operational strategies, start change, reverse the development difficulties.

6. Changes in world business management thinking Do thing right times • In the 1900s, "Taylor scientific management" theory.1930, Maslow "behavioral science" and Japan "total quality management" theory. • In the 1960s, Porter "Competitive Strategy" management phases. • In the 1970s, mass production-oriented to strengthen the machine: quality control, statistical quality control, 5S, quality control circles, statistical process control, project PERT, critical path method. Do right thing times • 1980, corporate "restructuring reengineering revolution" phase to strengthen quality-oriented: ISO, core competence, organizational change, risk management, Six Sigma, total quality management, lean production, timely production, enterprise resource planning and customer satisfaction. • 1990 to date, "Learning competitive organization," the network "virtual organization" forms. Strengthen knowledge / strategic orientation: blue ocean strategy, business intelligence, balanced scorecard, knowledge management, vision and mission statements, strategic planning, learning organization, team building, outsourcing, customer relationship management, benchmarking, long tail, experience marketing, data mining and so on.

7. Some business management concept of Value Creation clinic model • To Dr. Deming PDCA management of, Dr. Ichak Adizes Corporate Life Cycle concept, into the eight ISO international quality management system operation and management of the core concepts, develop my Agribusiness organizational operation and continued improvement in the quality of the two 12 - step's cycle mode. • The "reengineering" (Re-engineering the Corporation; Michael Hammer & James Champy, 2004) of the 4R (Reposition, Restructure, Re-system, Revitalization), transformed into "innovative change 6R" (Reposition, Reorganization & Restructure, Re- system, Revitalization, Reprocessing, Remarketing) cycle model, the implementation of farm business efficiency.

8. Value Creation clinic modelBy Dr. Deming's PDCA continuous improvement in business organizational development, and create new value.

9. 1.ConfirmationCustomer needs 12. Evaluation of the results of process improvement actions. 2. Establishing the quality policy and objectives 11. Monitoring the results of process improvement actions. 3. To determine the process to achieve quality objectives and responsibilities. ISO9000: 2000 quality continues to improve 12 - step's cycle mode 10. Implementation of process improvement action plan. 4. To achieve quality goals established methods of measurement of process effectiveness 9. Preparation process improvement action plan. 7. Look for opportunities to enhance effectiveness and efficiency of the process. 5. The effectiveness of the implementation of the confirmation process measurements. 8. Recognized the opportunity to perform the priority. 6. Recognizing that prevention of the causes of failure and preventive measures.

10. Concept of corporate life cycle clinic400 organizations in 20 countries applied, were great achievements.Domino's Pizza, 7 years by the 100 million annual turnover growth of 5 million dollars to 15 billion U.S. dollars. Key:Establishment of integrated complementary team: the leaders of that perfection does not exist, must find a complementary management team. Characteristics of successful enterprises: democratic decision-making, autocratic executive.

11. 12. Designed to strengthen the incentive for the development of benefit-sharing system. 1. To arouse a sense of crisis. 2.Diagnostic synergy 11. The organization of the total inventory. Organizational Value Creation 12-step's cycleContinue to adjust the mode of operation 3. Create powerful synergy CAPI team. 10. Formulate long-term plan, the establishment of organizational strategic planning system, distributed physical resources. 4. Produce structures with reminders 9. To create peak performance and information sharing, resource allocation procedures. 5. Confirm the vision and mission. 7. Confirm the new organizational structure and information systems. 6. The design of new functional organizational structure and new operational procedures. 8. Above steps layer by layer implementation.

12. Problem Change Management Effective organizational operation of the psychological processes Executive Decision capi PAEI Common interests Complementary team Different styles Different interests Conflict Constructive conflict Destructive conflict

13. Continued from previous page Constructive conflict Synergy Symbiosis Love Learning Drink the blood brothers for the Union center arena Mutual trust Mutual respect Friends Partners Structure Process People One to One Cognitive Conference

14. Create value treatment mode"Organizational innovation and reform 6R" loop transformation models continue to create value. （Huang Ying-chieh ,2005） 1.組織的重新定位 （Reposition） 6.再創造未來市場 （re-marketing） 2.組織與結構重組 （re-organization & re-structure） 5.人員活力再生重塑企業文化 （Revitalization） 3.重設新流程 （Reprocessing） 4.重設新法令制度系統 （re-system）

15. Peter Senge "Learning organization" concept • So that members have a "spiritual mind" and "fundamental change." Learning how to learn."Systems thinking" practitioners to establish a "learning organization" scaffolding, absorbed in "self-transcendence," "improving mental models," "building shared vision," "team learning" and other practitioners to construct a flexible, resilient, and create continuous learning , an organization with a sustainable competitive advantage.

16. Organizations move up the impetus is not magic（Collective learning capabilities） • Open Space to the consensus mode of operation of business organizations to rethink common."Collective learning" establish a common, fervent desire (shared vision), we can change the same into the ranks. • Only participants have developed a "reflection and probing the depth of the act" in order to openly discuss the business of the organization complex issues of conflict, but also to self-handling "sensitive issues" would not touch the nerve of self-defense, as fighting and resisting reform .

17. R. H. Coase 1991 Nobel Prize in EconomicsCoase Theorem • Coase Theorem: "In a world without transaction costs, regardless of how to define the ownership of property rights, resource use efficiency is optimal." • So should the role of a martial arts, usually only towards the elimination of obstacles no matter what transaction coordination and communication costs.

18. The father of modern educational psychology Thorndike (1890)Enhanced theory of operant conditioning • Formula: internal responses to external stimuli ⇒ consequences • Is a behavioral change caused by the stimulation of the process and methods. • Response to external stimuli and internal inertia contact award or punishment for continuous operation, and increase or decrease. • Reward and punishment behavior is the history of the decision. Appropriate incentives, can shape behavior. • Many of the ideas or behavior pattern is obtained through practice experience. • Appropriate rewards and punishments (reinforcement) can stimulate the reaction (behavior) of the moon as, at the right time, given the appropriate stimulus (reinforcement), is actually a culture of life pattern of behavior (reaction).

19. Management philosophy of yin and yang of ChinaAssembly, integration, integration

20. Assembly, integration, integration • Tolerance isTo cross the border, we must sacrifice some of their own and the other side, crossed the boundaries of your • See the whole picture (strategy) and to break the artificial boundary (boundary) is to integrate the core of the problem • Long period of division the world together, together for a long time to divide, how to integrate to form one of the objects is a challenge in the challenge, but after all, there is an achievement of the period. • "Gou Quotations" triple spirit "of the collection, integration, integration." How the combination of the first set and then, from the combination of advanced to the integration, and finally fused into one, but (Organization) the biggest business challenges.

21. In recent years, the world's top 10 ranking management The most common management techniques in recent years: Strategic Planning Customer Relationship Management Customer Segmentation Balanced Scorecard Mission Statement Core competence

22. In recent years, the 10 most commonly used management techniques Strategy based technology is more important than instrumental techniques

23. Scenario and Contingency PlanningLatest (2006) 25 management ranks 8th worldwide

24. Reason Scenario Planning • Scenario (Scenario) intent that the script or screenplay. Represents a careful description of the picture of the future. • A World War II military planning methods. U.S. Air Force tried to imagine that competitors may take steps to prepare the appropriate strategy. Of the 20th century, 60 years, the Rand Corporation and the U.S. Air Force has worked ‧ Herman Kahn (Herman Kahn), the refined this approach into business forecasting tool. • In the 1970s, Shell Oil (Shell) prior to the Arab oil embargo, "scenario planning" and reduce the global oil supply caused by sudden changes in business impact.

25. Scenario Planning Guidance into the best all-round transformation of the future Future Scenario Planning Best Future Yb Common Future Yn Now Z Yw The next worst Over the past System Dynamic Simulation 30

26. Scenario Planning Function Gradually in recent years, combined with the traditional strategic planning as a strategy to develop analytical tools, and even to guide and accelerate the internal organization of the learning strategy for change within the organization touches. Is based on known facts and potential business combination of trends, to explore possible future perspectives. Is a search for ideas, predict the future, the phenomenon of the future a description of various unknown ways to develop a "real world may be how it works," the logic of Thinking. Is a consistent point of view of possible future conditions - if it is such a development, we will take such action. In the particular case by the sandbox different exercises to reduce the risk of uncertainty. Provide preventive mechanism and function, so that managers did not happen before the problem, imagine the possible scenario of access to preview, when the imagined scenario appears, will be able to respond calmly and carefully. Emphasis on the dynamic evolution of enterprise environment, to do a comprehensive consideration. The possible path of future development will make a framework, the specific type of presentation. With a review of available, once the omission of important factors that could prompt remedy. Simulated situations to remind members of management organization, the immediate use of management systems and processes that may not be possible for the next one must change their business models, ideas, concepts, mindset and values. To inspire and motivate members and remodeling thawing mental models, active learning new things, amendments to the common mode of thinking, and action strategies to implement solutions in order to create a successful future.

27. Scenario Planning TAIDA steps (Lindgren and Bandhold): • Tracking: Environmental Change and follow the signs to explore the potential opportunities and threats and identify trends. • Analyzing: According to generate changes have occurred or are the events, the causal relationship analysis of trends and possible future scenario planning. • Imaging: confirm the likelihood of future scenarios, and adds organizational development vision of the future organization expected (desired future). • Deciding: According to the information obtained to measure their importance and to make decisions, and it is said to develop action strategies. • Acting: the organization planning to organize new information and members with experience in the old, and their integration, and begin operations.

28. The future of mankind on Earth Do right thing thinking • The above scenario planning concept and experience of ancient and modern business management, research and mention the future of human co-existence in the way the Earth.

29. Tracking Environmental conditions of human existence on Earth Inconvenient Truth CO2 & T • Groups of human behavior is always in the "boiling frog Law", burning butt is not perceived. • Greenhouse gas levels are now higher than in the past 650,000 years. • United Nations "of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" estimate, and from 1980 to 1999 standards, compared with each other, to the year 2100, global surface temperature will rise 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees Celsius. • Temperature rise, leading to warming of the oceans and, like all icebergs are melting, sea levels will rise 60 meters. • Presumably, to the year 2050, Earth's average temperature will rise 2 degrees Celsius; in the past years, the earth's average temperature increased by only 2 degrees Celsius. In 2100, sea level will rise 0.5 - 1.4 m, seawater intrusion, third world population, will suffer the threat of drought, industry, agriculture was stopped.

30. In 1870, the invention of combustion engines and steam turbines. Greenhouse gases & temperature rise • Mid-nineteenth century the second industrial revolution, electricity, heavy industry, chemical-based, the temperature curve and the concentration of greenhouse gases is almost the same, showing a rapid upward trend. Chart from the IPPC. 30

32. Greenland Melt Extent

33. Himalayas: 40% of the world's rivers and springs from access to drinking water, while more than half of these drinking water sources but also from the glacier, the next half century, and that 40% of the people on the planet will be dissolved because of the glacier face serious water shortages.

34. Arctic, Antarctic ice melting • In 2008, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Center in Colorado scientists that the Arctic ice has a 50% probability of being completely melted in September, the speed is much faster than expected.

35. Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets . Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters.

36. Future sea level • Future sea level predictions are uncertain because of uncertainties in the contributions of Greenland and Antarctica. • a recent study suggests higher rates (0.5 - 1.4 m of sea level rise by 2100). [Rahmstorf, 2007]

38. Just as long as the sea level by 1.5 meters, 58,000 square kilometers of land in the United States, will disappear at sea level, the Netherlands, the tide will gradually be swallowed, the British coastline will be submerged under the sea. And Bangladesh, Egypt and other countries, will also face floods disaster.

39. Middle of this century, climate warming will force people to leave their homes, crossed the border into neighboring countries, contributing to social instability, racism and resentment local residents. "

45. Over the past few decades, 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide number nearly doubled. In 2008, severe flooding around the instant rainfall than expected. 45

46. The early 21st century is the "6th extinction" era.Earth's rate of loss of this species, than in the past 6500 million years at any time, 1,000 times faster.Now on land, 1 / 4 of the plants and animals will be extinct by 2050

47. Temperature rise, leading to massive release of methane, start warming cycle, out of control. • British "nature (Nature)" Journal reported that the Earth 600 million 5 million 3 thousand years ago, a lot of methane released into the atmosphere, leading to severe warming and species extinction, climate chaos for 10 years, this future may be again. • September 2008 The Independent The Independent, scientists have discovered hundreds of tons of methane is from the bottom of the Arctic ice sheet is released into the atmosphere.

48. The researchers detected a large number of methane exist in the Arctic OceanDate :09-08-17 • Methane is leaking from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf into the atmosphere at an alarming rate. • Climate change not only from increased human emissions of greenhouse gases, but also the Earth itself releases more greenhouse gases. Royal scientific research ship to the North Pole area, the use of sonar to detect the sea floor more than 250 methane bubbles. Analysis, this area in the past 30 years the once water temperature, leading to the seabed methane decomposition of methane hydrate, and way of floating bubble surface. • Methane hydrate, also known as "combustible ice", normally present in the seabed under the high steady state. 30 years ago, these substances can be 360 meters deep under the sea, stable, and now they are going to be stable under 400 meters. If the Arctic sea widespread phenomenon, then the annual number of tons of methane will be released. The problem will worsen global warming. And methane dissolved in seawater acidity will cause water to increase, a negative impact on the marine ecosystem.

49. 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report reported that the greenhouse effect if it continued to intensify, to the end of the century, estimated the average temperature will rise by 6.3 degrees c, Linus (Mark Lynas) Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (2007) pointed out that, according to a large number of scientific research, outlining every 1 ℃ temperature changes will occur: • Increase 1 ℃: Global food shortages Arctic ice melting accelerated, resulting in climate changes; atoll island would sink, coral reefs sustained serious bleaching, wider, more severe droughts become more frequent, the African mountain snow disappeared, there will be one-third of the world lack of fresh water surface, are no longer livable. • Increased 2 ℃: Decline and Fall of a million species of marine biology moving towards sustained warming and acidification, destruction of the food chain, destroying all the remaining coral reefs, the Greenland ice sheet continued to melt, causing disappearance of Arctic sea ice the polar bear extinct, more serious water crisis, global food how to allocate even more difficult. • Increased 3 ℃: the emergence of a large number of climate refugees? The carbon cycle will be reversed, soil and plants are no longer absorbing carbon, but began to spit a lot of carbon, most of the Amazon rain forest will be burned into a desert, extinction started. • Increased 4 ℃: hot temperatures will dominate everything? Sea-level rise inundated the coastal cities, the Antarctic ice sheet began to crack, and poles will be in the ice-free state, the melting of permafrost began to release large amounts of carbon dioxide, food supply and demand imbalance. • Increased 5 ℃: World full aliasing? South, the Arctic ice sheet residues will no longer exist, rising sea levels engulfing coastal cities, ready to attack inland, drought and floods in the two-sided human beings under attack, the gradual influx place reduced to a population of large attenuation. • Increased 6 ℃: Mass Extinction? Collective human will die!

50. "Six Degrees of change: the future of an increasingly hot planet" (2007) Carbon dioxide emissions and temperature rise table Celsius temperature target carbon dioxide concentration • 0.1-1.0oC 350ppm (AD 2005 to more than 1 degree c) to prevent global average temperature increase of the probability of a time: 0. • 1.1-2.0 oC 400ppm (AD 2010 of 388ppm) to prevent global average temperature increase of 2 degrees of probability: 93%, but only in 7 years, to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to reach 60 percent. • 2.1-3.0 oC 450ppm, such as temperature has increased twice, and thus lead to soil and vegetation carbon cycle feedback effects, to avoid global warming three opportunities: low. • 3.1-4.0 oC 550ppm to avoid the chance of a global rise of four degrees: low, has increased to three if, and lead to thawing Arctic permafrost. • 4.1-5.0 oC 650ppm five degrees of global warming to avoid the opportunity: almost no, if the temperature has increased four times, while the sea-bed methane trapped and then released. • 5.1-5.8 oC 800ppm to avoid the chance of six degrees of global warming: zero if the temperature had increased to five degrees, when all of the feedback role will be out of control.